人民币(6.3686, -0.0146, -0.23%)汇率更加市场化后，汇率涨跌是常态，企业要树立“风险中性”理念，避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为。
5月27日，全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开。此次会议对汇率的表态较为少见，引发市场高度关注。会议认为，未来，影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币既可能升值，也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。汇率不能作为工具，既不能用来贬值刺激出口，也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期，坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。
尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲，创下近三年来的高点，但市场的注意力过度聚焦在人民币兑美元汇率，而忽略了人民币兑一篮子货币的表现，后者才是反映人民币实际有效汇率的更重要指标。即便是在人民币兑美元汇率明显升值的近两个月，CFETS人民币汇率指数4月以来的升幅仅有0.32%左右，远小于人民币兑美元的升幅。
不少分析人士提醒，今年美元指数(90.0868, 0.0740, 0.08%)下行空间有限，下半年不排除波动向上的可能。这意味着今年人民币兑美元汇率整体上将处于“有升有贬”的双向波动格局。随着人民币汇率市场化定价机制的深化，汇率双向波动的趋势将更明显。
定调：汇率不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨
据人民银行官网消息，5月27日，全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开，全国外汇市场自律机制30家成员机构代表参加会议，会议选举中国银行行长刘金为新一届全国外汇市场自律机制主任委员，审议通过了全国外汇市场自律机制成员分层调整方案以及自律规范修订事宜。外汇自律机制成员机构专题就风险中性相关工作进行交流。中国外汇市场指导委员会（CFXC）主任委员、人民银行副行长刘国强出席并讲话，副主任委员、国家外汇管理局副局长王春英，外汇自律机制相关指导司局和外汇市场指导委员会委员参加会议。
会议认为，当前外汇市场总体平衡。未来，影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币既可能升值，也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。不论是短期还是中长期，汇率测不准是必然，双向波动是常态，不论是政府、机构还是个人，都要避免被预测结论误导。以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度适合中国国情，应当长期坚持。在这一汇率制度下，汇率不能作为工具，既不能用来贬值刺激出口，也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期，坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。
可以看出，上述表态对近期市场上关于人民币汇率会在中长期升值、央行将放弃汇率目标等观点集中作用回应，并再次强调人民币汇率以市场供求为基础。
华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜对证券时报·券商中国记者表示，结合近期官方对汇率的表态看，可以看出央行对人民币汇率水平并不预设点位，而是更多交由市场决定，汇率弹性会进一步加大，只有市场存在过度交易惯性的时候才会做适度的预期指引。
此外，值得注意的是，国际大宗商品价格暴涨背景下，通过人民币升值以帮助对抗输入性通胀的呼声渐高。此次会议明确“汇率不能作为工具，不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响”，也算是直接否定了此种提议。
平安证券首席经济学家钟正生也表示，本轮中国大宗商品涨价不能单纯定义为输入性，国内政策因素和部分核心原材料供应不足也起到了关键影响。应对本轮通胀压力还需多措并举，以缓和国内大宗商品供应紧张问题为着眼点。至于人民币汇率的走势，还是交给市场供求和国际金融市场变化决定为好，不必也不宜对其赋予更多的“念想”。
别只盯着人民币兑美元汇率
4月以来，人民币兑美元汇率重回升势，近日更是一路“高歌猛进”。截至5月27日16：30，在岸人民币兑美元汇率日间收盘报6.3758，较上一交易日涨172个基点，继续刷新三年来高位。
不过，尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲，人民币兑一篮子货币的表现更为“淡定”。今年以来，CFETS人民币汇率指数升幅近2.5%，4月以来升幅更是仅有0.32%左右，远小于同期在岸人民币兑美元超2%的升幅。
人民币兑美元汇率近期的显著升值，主要源于美元指数走弱和国内经济持续复苏的影响。目前美元指数围绕90上下波动，较4月初以来已下跌近3%，但同期人民币兑美元汇率的升幅弱于美元指数的下跌幅度。
嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry表示，近期美元的弱势是合理的回调，美联储对货币政策是否调整的态度还较为模糊，这导致美元愈发弱势，美元动能甚至不及卢布。在人⺠币对美元升值的同时，其实人⺠币对欧元(1.2182, -0.0011, -0.09%)、英镑(1.4192, -0.0008, -0.06%)、加元等今年3月以来都是在走弱而非走强，对一篮子货币的表现都并不非常强势，这似乎可以解释中国央行近期“淡定”的态度。“我们发现，本周以来，人民币中间价与我们的模型预测基本吻合，这说明中国央行放手于市场的态度”。
国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）主要成员王晋斌也撰文称，4月初以来人民币对美元升值幅度小于美元指数的贬值幅度，可以发现人民币升值的驱动因素出现了边际递减趋势，这也说明人民币未来升值的空间在减少。其次，人民币兑美元双边汇率的变动幅度要明显大于人民币兑一篮子货币汇率的变动幅度，说明人民币汇率形成机制中贸易汇率的稳定性优先。
不要赌汇率升贬值，久赌必输
正如会议所说，没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势，汇率测不准是必然，双向波动是常态。张瑜也表示，短期来看，人民币汇率的准确研判几乎不可能的，就是自由波动，由内外盘定价机制决定。从一年纬度的中期趋势看，由于美元指数在未来一年内有一波反弹的概率依然较高，押注人民币升值的要慎重。
随着人民币汇率双向波动成常态，对市场主体而言，重点不是赌人民币汇率的单边升值，而是要对人民币汇率波动的日益加大提前做好准备，做好财务规划，规避汇率风险。
会议就强调，企业和金融机构都应积极适应汇率双向波动的状态。企业要聚焦主业，树立“风险中性”理念，避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为，不要赌人民币汇率升值或贬值，久赌必输。金融机构不仅不能帮助企业“炒汇”，自身也不宜“炒汇”，否则不利于银行稳健经营，还会造成汇率大起大落。
近期，监管高层密集对人民币汇率释放信号。5月23日，人民银行副行长刘国强表示，人民银行完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，这一制度在当前和未来一段时期都是适合中国的汇率制度安排。未来人民币汇率的走势将继续取决于市场供求和国际金融市场变化，双向波动成为常态。人民银行将注重预期引导，发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器作用，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
金融委5月21日召开会议时也强调，进一步推动汇率市场化改革，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
文章评论
trazodone 50mg ca <a href="https://suhagranep.com/">sildenafil price</a> sildenafil 100mg drug
cheap dissertation help <a href="https://essayxwr.com/">buy nothing day essay</a> buy stromectol 2mg
A high index of suspicion is required to diagnose PM <a href=http://stromectol.skin>where can i buy stromectol ivermectin online</a>
1 events per 100 person years during the postshortage period <a href=https://clomid.pics>clomiphene for sale</a> The old ghost called the ghost said immediately
<a href=https://nolvadex.best>how quickly can tamoxifen cause uterine cancer</a> PubMed 18759308
I m supposed to take it for ten years <a href=http://acialis.top>purchase cialis</a> 233 300 mg Caja x 10 tabs
buy deltasone pill <a href="https://eaccutan.com/">buy isotretinoin 40mg generic</a> amoxil 500mg pill
methotrexate hydroxychloroquine sulfasalazine <a href="https://toplaquenil.org/">how much does hydroxychloroquine cost</a> plaquenil generic vs name brand
sildenafil 50mg <a href="https://cilsedpill.com/">order generic cialis 20mg</a> order cialis 10mg
zithromax 500mg cost <a href="https://egabapentinp.com/">purchase gabapentin online</a> buy gabapentin 800mg for sale
best real money casino <a href="https://gamblingcaso.com/">gambling casino online</a> buy cialis 20mg online
It's a pity you don't have a donate button! I'd definitely donate to this fantastic
blog! I guess for now i'll settle for book-marking
and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward
to fresh updates and will share this blog with my Facebook group.
Talk soon!
Tal R, Seifer DB, Wantman E, Baker V, Tal O <a href=http://lasix.buzz>lasix over the counter cvs</a>
real money poker online <a href="https://gastromectol.com/">stromectol tablets for humans</a> order provigil 100mg pills
furosemide 100mg canada <a href="https://edoxycyclinep.com/">doxycycline 200mg drug</a> cost plaquenil 200mg
Spot on with this write-up, I seriously
believe this amazing site needs far more attention. I'll probably be returning to read more,
thanks for the advice!
cialis isosorbide dinitrate trade name Defending champion Carmelita Jeter, whose season has been blighted with injury, looked less polished as she finished second in her heat behind Ivory Coast s Murielle Ahoure to go through to Monday s semi finals <a href=http://priligy.bond>priligy walgreens</a>
purchase deltasone online <a href="https://gaprednisone.com/">prednisone 10mg brand</a> vermox buy online
order fildena 100mg pill <a href="https://efildenamed.com/">buy sildenafil</a> buy rhinocort generic
first semester nursing school schedule <a href="https://nursingwriteresse.com/">online master in nursing education</a> nursing management of ectopic pregnancy ppt
<a href="https://tinyurl.com/37wkx77w">ruppel's manual of pulmonary function testing 12th edition pdf</a>
order tretinoin gel <a href="https://buytretinoinp.com/">tretinoin cream us</a> avanafil brand
<a href=https://aviagra.best>viagra honey</a> Quantitation of KI67 epithelial cells was performed using Imaris Cell 64 Imaging Software version 8
In the steady state the combination of water intake and water produced by the body from oxidation balances water losses from the skin, lungs, urine, and gastrointestinal GI tract <a href=http://clomid.pics>clomiphene over the counter</a>
tadalafil sale <a href="https://buydiclofenacp.com/">purchase diclofenac sale</a> indocin buy online
college format essay <a href="https://courseworkonlinetop.com/">coursework in resume</a> sports college essay
<a href=https://vkamagras.cyou>comprar kamagra en valencia</a> In our study, we uncovered a previously undefined role of Sox9 expressing cells in repair and regeneration during RILI
order terbinafine 250mg <a href="https://buyterbinafinep.com/">terbinafine price</a> trimox 500mg canada
Assays useful for determining if the humanized antibody herein is found to enhance the tumor reduction activity of TNF О± in both in vivo and in vitro tests are described below <a href=https://cialisshop.best>cheapest cialis online</a> Dizygotic twins, like any other siblings, have an extremely small chance of having the exact same chromosome profile
<A HREF="https://rega-msk1077.ru">Временная регистрация в Москве</A>
biaxin online <a href="https://bclarithromycinp.com/">clarithromycin order</a> antivert 25mg sale
tiotropium bromide without prescription <a href="https://buyminocyclinec.com/">minocin 50mg drug</a> order hytrin 5mg generic
<a href=http://cialis.motorcycles>buy cialis canada pharmacy</a> 8 Comparing Medication Information to the MAR
purchase actos online <a href="https://apioglitazone.com/">generic actos 15mg</a> usa viagra sales
En framgГҐngsrik behandling Г¤r en viktminskning av ovanstГҐende storleksordning som i alla fall bestГҐr i ett ГҐr efter avslutad behandling <a href=https://nolvadex.pics>letrozole vs tamoxifen</a> Thus, further exploration of Wnt5a in the arthritic space, beyond the synovial tissue, is warranted
cheap generic tadalafil <a href="https://buyclstfl.com/">Buy generic cialis</a> blackjack online money
blackjack card game <a href="https://xcasinoxslots.com/">poker online game</a> online gambling games
how to write a photo essay <a href="https://mycollegeessaywritingservicekos.org/">online essay writing service</a> help me write a 5 paragraph essay
write this essay for me <a href="https://topessaywriterfas.org/">can someone write my essay</a> how to write a scholarly essay
best no deposit free spins <a href="https://ampharmx.com/">legit canadian pharmacy</a> term papers help
I think everything published was very reasonable. But, what about this?
what if you typed a catchier title? I mean, I don't want to
tell you how to run your blog, but what if you added something that makes people want more?
I mean 不要赌人民币升贬值！这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价
- 赠金王 is kinda vanilla. You could look at Yahoo's
home page and see how they create article headlines to grab people to click.
You might add a related video or a related picture
or two to grab readers excited about what you've got to say.
In my opinion, it might make your website a little livelier.
You really make it appear so easy together with your presentation however I to find this topic to be really one thing which
I feel I would by no means understand. It sort of feels too complicated and very
wide for me. I'm looking ahead in your next publish, I will try to get
the cling of it!
ramipril us <a href="https://pxarcox.com/">buy etoricoxib 60mg</a> brand etoricoxib
pay for paper writing <a href="https://busulfasalazine.com/">sulfasalazine cheap</a> buy azulfidine 500 mg sale
essay for foreign service test <a href="https://writemyessayfht.com/">essay writing service</a> is online essay writing service safe
olmesartan 10mg ca <a href="https://buybenicaxp.com/">olmesartan 10mg usa</a> order divalproex 250mg sale
In nature, there are different types of conjugated fatty acids <a href=http://buycialis.buzz>canadian pharmacy cialis 20mg</a>
My brother recommended I would possibly like this web site.
He used to be totally right. This put up truly made my day.
You can not consider just how a lot time I had spent for this
information! Thanks!
buy acetazolamide for sale <a href="https://buyimurpl.com/">azathioprine online buy</a> azathioprine 25mg oral
digoxin online buy <a href="https://buymicardpl.com/">micardis uk</a> buy molnunat 200mg generic