- 油价崩溃加剧了因疫情引发的金融市场动荡，全球股市尤其是美股的暴跌支持避险需求。同时美联储进一步大幅降息的预期打压美元，从标价因素方面利好黄金。黄金价格日内上行在1700受阻，但是多重因素支持上涨，所以走势可能不会在1700下方呆太久。不过，查看客户情绪指数可以发现，目前黄金的散户多头过于拥挤，73%的散户持有多头，27%的散户持有空头，该指标作为反向指标指示回落风险。
原油暴跌加剧金融市场动荡
由于欧佩克+上周未能达成深化减产的协议，沙特决定“破罐子破摔”，祭出的争取市场份额的价格战令市场瞠目结舌。一方面计划将产量提升至大幅高于1000万桶/天的水平，另一方面将原油售价下调8-12.5美元/桶。
沙特的价格战措施在周一金融市场激起滔天巨浪，充当其冲的两大国际基准油价（美油和布油）一度下跌超30%。金融市场风险偏好本已经在疫情的恐惧下疲软不堪，而油价周一的创纪录下跌无异于雪上加霜，悲观和恐慌蔓延令大宗商品尤其是股市一片哀嚎。
亚市恒生指数下跌4.23%，日经指数下跌5.07%；欧洲时段截至目前，德国DAX指数下跌7.6%，法国CAC40指数下跌7.8%，英国富时100指数下跌7.63%，而目前疫情严重的意大利股指下跌达到10%。而美股三大期货指数触及5%的跌停限制，预示美股将遭遇黑色星期一，甚至有触发熔断机制的风险。
黄金亚市在避险需求提振下走强刺激1700关口，但是随后遭遇获利回吐的抛压。不过，金融市场正在遭遇08年金融危机以来最严重抛售，这种跌势不能得到缓解黄金的避险买盘就不会轻易松懈，所黄金上破1700或易如反掌。
美联储月内可能继续大幅降息，美元或难止跌势
为应对疫情带来的风险，美联储上周出人意料的采取紧急降息50个基点的宽松措施。但是随后的市场表现表明，美联储措施没有平复投资者恐慌情绪。美股上周的反弹很快夭折。而进入本周，油价大崩盘导致的负面情绪向全球金融市场传导，美股正以更快的速度俯冲下跌。
由于金融市场情况的恶化，投资者押注美联储将很快采取更有利的降息行动。根据CME联邦基金利率的市场的暗示，美联储3月会议大概率将降息100个基点（几率82%），小概率降息75个基点（几率18%）。
突然大幅走低的利率路径令美元承压，而美股资产价格下滑导致的资金外流正加剧美元贬值压力，而这恰好是黄金的上涨动力。
黄金技术分析
日图显示，黄金周一跳空冲高至1700回调，目前在1650-1660区域受到支持，短线持稳该支持随时可能上行挑战1700，一旦有效突破将为后续指向1800打开空间。而若回落跌破1650，则可能进一步指向20日均线1635，下破可能继续回落指向1600。
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