
基本面
美指
美元回落推动英镑兑美元上涨,市场聚焦美联储九月降息
英镑兑美元周四上涨逾0.33%,报复美元近期疲软。推动因素包括投资者押注美联储将启动一系列降息,同时英国央行下周利率决议关注度相对有限。尽管美国8月CPI通胀数据略高于预期,但市场仍看好美联储年内多次降息,短期英镑兑美元维持上涨动能。
分析师指出,尽管通胀略有上行,但市场仍坚信美联储将继续降息。
黄金
摩根士丹利:预计黄金年底突破3800
高华指出,“黄金一直是不确定性时期的首选资产,但在2025年,它的角色正在演变。投资者关注黄金,不仅因其可对冲通胀,更将其视为反映从央行政策到地缘政治风险等各类问题的‘晴雨表’。当黄金价格变动时,往往意味着表面之下正发生重大事件。”
尽管黄金属于无收益资产,但在许多主要经济体通胀仍高于目标水平的背景下,其吸引力依旧惊人地强劲。而且投资者认为,各国央行可能很快不得不降息,这或将进一步推高黄金价格。”
原油
美国需求走弱与OPEC+增产计划推动,油价下跌至前期低点附近,谨防破位
油价周五继续下跌,投资者担忧美国需求放缓与全球供应过剩,盖过了中东和乌克兰冲突引发的供应风险。OPEC+宣布10月将进一步增产,沙特加大对亚洲大国出口,令市场担心消化能力。与此同时,美国通胀上升与失业数据变化,使市场普遍预期美联储将降息,或在中期支撑需求。
瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示,市场正在质疑亚洲大国能否长期消化更多原油并维持经合组织(OECD)库存的低位水平,投资者同时关注针对俄罗斯石油的潜在新制裁。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周四,美国8月通胀数据微热,初请失业金数据弱于预期,强化了对美联储的降息预期。美元指数应声下挫,最终收跌0.31%,报97.50。美债收益率普跌,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.0260%,对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.5520%。
观点整理:
回顾周四市场表现,在早盘期间价格短线先维持上涨状态,之后价格如期测试到日线及周线阻力区域,同时美盘后借助数据价格快速承压,最终日线大阴收尾,后续日线及周线阻力得失依旧是关键。
黄金
市场行情整理:
因美国就业数据的疲软压倒了市场对更强劲通胀数据的担忧,现货黄金跌幅收窄,仍守在历史高位附近,最终收跌0.21%,收报3633.46美元/盎司;现货白银获更大反弹,最终收涨0.93%,报41.50美元/盎司。
观点整理:
由于美国初请失业金人数意外上升,同时美国CPI数据落地,进一步支撑美联储降息预期升温,支撑金价多头,而美元指数并未跌破支撑区间,等待本月美联储利率决议落地,技术层面黄金依然维持多头运行,等待均线上移
原油
市场行情整理:
因担心美国需求疲软和广泛的供应过剩风险,国际原油回落。WTI原油最终大跌2.37%,报62.23美元/桶;布伦特原油最终收跌1.88%,报66.32美元/桶。
观点整理:
市场担忧美国需求进一步下行,同时OPEC+增产,使得供给端过剩预期进一步升温,供需双杀之下,油价继续走低,且市场风险偏好回暖也未能带动油价反弹,在技术层面上反复测试箱体压力未果,接近前期低点附近谨防再次破位
 
                        

 
			










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