中国在数字货币领域的领导地位让美国的举措受到了更大的关注,但美国不太可能很快做出类似的努力。
随着中国进入央行数字货币世界,中国将一个已经严重依赖电子支付的社会纳入主流。这也为政府提供了一个预测国民消费习惯的水晶球,并让中国的货币在全球舞台上占据了优势。
在更大的层面上,此举引发了人们对人民币(6.5413, 0.0018, 0.03%)如今对美元构成更大挑战的担忧。美元享有世界储备货币的地位,很多国际贸易都以美元计价。
然而,美联储官员一直在小心翼翼地进入数字货币领域,即使中国加大了压力,预计这种情况也不会改变。
美联储主席鲍威尔最近表示,在没有国会批准的情况下,美联储不会在这方面采取任何行动。波士顿联储和麻省理工学院(MIT)的一个联合项目仍处于早期阶段。
“说实话,我真的不认为它有多大改变,”Fundstrat数字资产研究主管大卫·格里德(David Grider)表示。“我不一定认为这改变了美元在世界上扮演的角色,这可能是(鲍威尔)不那么着急的原因之一。”
不过,如果忽视数字货币的破坏性,美国就有落在世界后面的风险。
不到十年前,比特币和它的同行们似乎还只是引发人们的好奇心而已。据追踪该行业价值的CoinMarketCap称,目前各种网络货币的总市值已接近2万亿美元。
采用数字货币的益处
数字货币有多种好处。他们为那些没有钱开账户或无法进入银行的人提供了进入金融系统的途径。
在短短几年内,全球数字交易总额预计将达到9万亿美元的时候,这一发展将使各国政府赶上WiPay、支付宝和SwiftPay等支付系统在世界各地的发展。
但也有隐私问题。央行数字货币不像比特币和其他加密货币那样运行,因为交易不会是匿名的。美联储官员已经表达了对隐私问题和实施的担忧。
不过,这并没有阻止全球对数字货币的兴趣。
至少,在跨境支付方面,中国在央行数字货币领域的领先地位在一定程度上赶上了美元。
这种影响力更有可能在中国已经占据主导地位的亚洲地区感受到。
数字货币的发展也为中国提供了一份保险,即使它与全球法规发生冲突,并发现自己成为制裁的对象,它仍有办法进行业务交易。
美国银行货币策略师阿达什·辛哈(Adarsh Sinha)在给客户的一份报告中表示,让更多国家参与到跨境支付中来,通过一座多央行数字货币桥(简称m-CBDC),“随着时间的推移,可以增强(中国的)地区影响力。最终,这很可能是中国的实际目标(也是更现实的目标),而不是任何取代美元作为全球储备货币地位的企图。”
辛哈补充说,中国需要一个“兼容和协调的系统”来使用中国人民银行的数字货币,而且已经有来自其他央行的信号表明,进入该领域的行动迫在眉睫。
其他地方也出现了行动的迹象。
例如,泰国将于明年开始测试自己的零售数字货币,计划在未来三到五年内全面实施。
本周,日本也开始试验将一种数字货币整合到其系统中的方法。
尚没有威胁
不过,美国的紧急程度似乎较低。
尼克·克拉斯(Nick Colas)是DataTrek Research的联合创始人,他在之前的一份工作中是华尔街第一位写比特币的分析师。他说,最近对客户的调查显示,人们对美国央行的数字货币只有中等程度的热情。
克拉斯称,在美联储是否应该加速其CBDC时间表的问题上,有大约300名偏好颠覆性技术的客户,大致有两派。
克拉斯称,“投资者听到美联储有点不情愿地谈论CBDCs,听到他们谈论风险,他们有点内化了,并说,‘如果美联储看到风险,或许我们不应该这么快就采取行动。”
“人们已经意识到这样一个事实,即美联储正在努力解决这个问题,如果美联储正在努力解决这个问题,那就不应该匆忙采取行动。”
可以肯定的是,有人呼吁央行采取更快的行动。
发行自己的瑞波币(XRP)的全球支付处理器瑞波(Ripple)撰写了一份报告,强烈鼓励美国向前推进。
该公司指出,除其他外,如果政府能够使用数字货币,那么在新冠大流行早期向个人提供紧急救援款项将会容易得多。
“(央行数字货币)有巨大的潜力,但必须首先克服众多挑战,”Ripple报告称。“现在,各国央行应该探索这些问题,制定共同的解决方案,确保货币的下一次演变能让更多的人和企业受益,让世界变得更美好。”
但美联储可能会继续从长计议,尽管有人质疑中国的举动是否会威胁到美国和美元的全球地位。
科拉斯说:“现在和未来五年,它不会。“如果中国经济继续像过去10年那样增长,如果中国在全球贸易中所占的份额保持不变,人们开始接受中国,长期而言,中国肯定是一个威胁。但这不是短期风险。”
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