
2020年10月21日(周三),国际货币基金组织在其最新的《亚洲及太平洋地区经济展望》报告中表示:预计亚洲今年将萎缩2.2%,比先前6月份预期的萎缩1.6%还要糟糕。
新冠疫情继续肆掠亚洲部分国家
国际货币基金组织表示,由于亚洲部分国家和地区依旧处于与新冠疫情斗争的状态,因此亚洲今年的经济萎缩可能比以前预测的还要糟糕。国际货币基金组织预测今年亚洲经济将萎缩2.2%,这比此前6月份预测的1.6%还要糟糕。而与之鲜明对比的是,国际货币基金组织上调了对全球经济的预测。
亚洲经济萎缩主要是因为新冠疫情在部分国家的继续肆掠,“由于新冠病例的持续增加和封锁的扩大,印度和菲律宾第二季度经济活动出现了特别急剧的下降。”
货币基金组织对马来西亚、印度和菲律宾三个经济体的预测:
印度:预计到2021年3月31日结束的财政年度,印度将萎缩10.3%,此前6月份的预测是萎缩4.5%。
菲律宾:预计到2020年结束,菲律宾将萎缩8.3%,远高于此前预测的3.6%。
马来西亚:马来西亚今年可能会萎缩6%,而6月份国际货币基金组织对其的预测是3.8%。
中国经济逆势而上
尽管全球大部分国家因疫情的影响经济萎缩,但是中国是今年有望增长的少数亚洲经济体之一,国际货币基金组织将中国2020年增长预期从6月份的1%上调至1.9%,因为中国第二季度经济恢复和反弹要快于预期。而在本周初,中国发布了7月至9月的季度数据,与去年同期相比,今年经济增长4.9%。
同时,国际货币基金组织还预测明年中国的经济增长有望回升至8.2%。国际货币基金组织还预测亚洲在2021年的经济将增长6.9%,当然经济的恢复情况还将取决于病毒是否被遏制。
而由于亚洲地区的是一个以出口为导向的地区,因此亚洲也将面临经济多样化的挑战,需要摆脱对出口的过度依赖。

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