周三(17 日) 交易,黄金期货价格收低,部分系因美国公债殖利率走高带来压力,但在Fed 宣布2023 年底之前不打算升息后,黄金电子盘交易走高。
GraniteShares 投资组合经理Jeff Klearman 表示,FOMC 一如预期维持利率不变并维持购债速度。Fed 主席鲍尔(Jerome Powell) 「重申了通膨不是问题,且Fed 将持续宽松政策以求完全就业和达到通膨目标。因此市场状况持续有利黄金价格走高。」
- 4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌3.80美元或近0.2%,收每盎司1727.10美元,Fed消息公布后,电子盘交易涨逾1%至1741.90美元。
实际收益率仍明显为负,因为5 年实际收益率约莫-1.7%,而10 年期实际收益率约-0.7%,这意味着持有黄金没有机会成本。
「长期公债利率上升主要是因为通膨预期上升所推动,而非实际收益率大升带动,这也支持了黄金价格。」
美元最近略微走强,但仍接近3年低点,有鉴于Fed持续宽松政策,美元有可能进一步走贬。加上美国税务变动相关的不确定性,以及美国现在事实上是债务在GDP占比上最大的国家,这些看来,黄金似乎没有下跌的理由。」
Fed宣布消息后,ICE美元指数周三下降0.2%,本月迄今仍上升。但交易时间,10年期公债殖利率触及去年1月以来最高水准,令黄金承压,且削弱Fed宣布消息后带来的涨势。
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