4月6日,Isis Almeida带头的分析师团队撰文称,大宗商品运费正在飙升,且这波涨势还没有结束。
从大豆到钢铁,市场对各种商品的需求不断增长,导致今年干货运输费用飙升了50%以上。
在封锁期间,库存减少了港口运营,打击了全球经济活动。亚洲地区的制造业首先复苏,现在其他地方也在加速复苏,各国都在加紧购买大宗商品,以重建库存。
分析师称,这波涨势尚未结束,预计谷物、铁矿石和煤炭等散装大宗商品运费今年将保持高位,并可能持续到2022年。
这对遭疫情打击的航运行业来说将是一个明显的转变。
Arrow Shipbroking Group研究主管Burak Cetinok暗示,去年航运行业前景还存在很大的不确定性,但现在看到了曙光,工业部门正在增加库存,加大了出货量。
干散货运输成本是衡量经济复苏的一个很好的指标。随着亚洲大买家更快摆脱疫情,运费开始回升。因为其制造业复苏且大量进口美国农作物,使干散货运费率先上涨。
如下图所示,干散货运输费用因疫情暴跌(红线),但已经出现强劲反弹(绿线)
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