今日美联储纪要很关键 收益率再破高位成难事,美元涨势恐暂止

2021年04月07日 11783点热度 0人点赞 1,764条评论

今日美联储纪要很关键 收益率再破高位成难事,美元涨势恐暂止

周三(4月7日)亚洲交易时段,市场情绪喜忧参半,经济复苏憧憬带动亚股升至三周高位,美元跌至两周低位,黄金徘徊在1740美元附近。

截止收盘,澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数收盘上涨0.61%;日经225指数收涨0.1%;韩国KOSPI指数收盘上涨0.33%。A股全线小幅走低。

美国大规模财政和货币刺激措施以及疫苗接种的迅速推进,推动标普500指数和道指创下纪录高位,CBOE市场波动率指数回落至大流行前的低位。

昨日美国股市标普500指数下滑,但仍接近过去几个交易日连续创下的纪录收盘高位。在此之前,上周五出炉了强劲的非农就业报告,且本周一公布的报告显示,3月美国服务业指数攀升至纪录高位。

投资者还对最新的美国就业报告进行权衡,美国劳工统计局2月JOLTS职位空缺增至737万个,为两年来最多,高于预测的690万个。在疫苗接种加速之际,国内需求增强,且受额外财政刺激措施推动,企业需要更多工人。

除了经济数据表现强劲外,美国疫苗接种进展仍不断加快。白宫表示,年逾16岁美国民众本月19日起可接种新冠疫苗,较原定计划提前两周。

“美国经济正在感受到新冠疫苗广泛接种和财政刺激的强力双重措施的初始效应,”摩根大通资产管理的首席全球市场策略师David Kelly表示,“现实情况是,预估仍非常不确定,(但)初步迹象显示复苏正在加速,暗示回归‘正常’的速度比许多人几个月前所希望的要快。”

国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二再次上调全球经济增长预期,预计今年全球经济将增长6%,是1970年代以来前所未见的增幅。

就目前来看,投资者在更多强劲美国经济数据与对即将公布的企业季报的紧张情绪之间权衡。

在财报季即将到来之际,路孚特数据显示,预计标普500指数成分股企业的盈利料将较上年同期增长24.2%,但投资者可能在等待,看看实际业绩会有多强劲。

汇市方面,美元今天有所企稳,但这仍与收益率和现阶段的债券市场有关,10年期美国国债收益率触及的上限为1.75%。但也有一个在1.60%左右的底部需要考虑。

除非出现重大调整,否则只要收益率保持在一定水平,美元仍可能在此过程中找到一些支撑。这在很大程度上也取决于未来的经济数据,目前已经看到,要让收益率走高是一个艰巨的任务。

在最新的回调中,日元和瑞郎(0.9290-0.0021-0.23%)也出现部分回调,特别是兑加元。考虑到加元的基本面在整体上仍然相对稳固,这可能是观察逢低买入的好时机。

如果加元兑日元(87.22-0.0900-0.10%)回落至3月23-24日的低点86.00附近,可能会让买家重返加元兑日元,当然这也取决于石油市场的状况。

欧元(1.18880.00160.13%)英镑(1.38230.00010.01%)(0.86000.00130.15%)昨天录得年内最强劲的日表现,但多头需要突破0.8640-45,才能说服投资者修正动作进一步延长。

在其他方面,现货黄金昨日强势反弹重返1740美元上方,今日遭部分获利了结,金价目前交投在1735美元附近。

在周一创纪录的上涨之后,美国股市似乎正在寻找方向,并将从今天的FOMC会议纪要中寻找进一步的线索。香港时间周四凌晨02:00,美联储将公布3月货币政策会议纪要。

然而,如果收益率涨势停滞,考虑到美国经济反弹,高收益率走势停滞,美联储继续加速印钞,这可能会让科技股是个好消息。

日内焦点、风向标:

16:00 欧元区3月服务业PMI终值

16:30 英国3月服务业PMI

20:30 美国2月贸易帐

21:00 美联储埃文斯就发表讲话

22:30 美国至4月2日当周EIA原油库存

待定 欧洲央行行长拉加德出席会议

次日01:00 美联储戴利出席研讨会

次日02:00 美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要

主要货币走势分析:

欧元:欧元/美元在连续两日强势反弹后逼近关键的200日均线1.1889,关注能否突破这一水平。技术面看,4小时图来看,MACD红色动能柱略有减弱,RSI指标触及超买水平,KDJ指标交投在超买水平内,指示价格短线多头仍占上风。短期初步支撑位于1.1850,初步阻力位则可看1.1900。

英镑:英镑/美元延续昨日的回落势头,日内失守关键的1.38关口。技术面看,4小时图来看,MACD绿色动能柱逐步扩张,RSI指标向下逼近超卖水平,KDJ指标也持续下行逼近超卖水平,暗示价格短线或进一步走低。短期初步支撑位于1.3745,初步阻力位则可看1.3855。

日元:美元/日元前两日自高位持续回落逼近109.50水平,日内低位徘徊。技术面看,4小时图来看,MACD绿色动能柱基本持稳,RSI指标试图反弹逼近50水平,KDJ指标仍交投在超卖水平附近,预计价格短线或整固。短期初步支撑位于109.40,初步阻力位于110.10。

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    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

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    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

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    A federal judge on Tuesday afternoon temporarily blocked part of the Trump administration’s plans to freeze all federal aid, a policy that unleashed confusion and worry from charities and educators even as the White House said it was not as sweeping an order as it appeared.
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  • ScottTab

    What is Uniswap?
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    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

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    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

    Первые шаги в бизнесе

    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

    Расширение бизнеса

    В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.

    Социальная ответственность

    Одним из важных аспектов деятельности Ирека Сафина является социальная ответственность. Он активно участвует в благотворительных проектах, поддерживает образовательные учреждения и спортивные мероприятия. Кроме того, он уделяет большое внимание экологии и внедряет экологически чистые технологии в своем производстве.

    Личные качества и принципы

    Ирек Сафин известен своим трудолюбием, ответственностью и стремлением к совершенству. Он всегда ставит перед собой высокие цели и стремится их достичь. Его принципами являются честность, открытость и уважение к партнерам и клиентам. Эти качества помогли ему завоевать доверие и уважение в деловом сообществе.

    Заключение

    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – яркий пример успешного предпринимателя, который сумел построить устойчивый бизнес и внести значительный вклад в развитие экономики региона. Его опыт и достижения могут служить примером для многих начинающих предпринимателей.

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    The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.

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    Trump did not cite any evidence for how efforts to hire more minorities, people with disabilities and other groups less represented in American workforces led to the crash, saying “it just could have been” and that he had “common sense.” But Trump criticized the FAA’s effort to recruit people with disabilities during Joe Biden’s administration, even though the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan for the 2020-2029 period, issued under Trump’s first administration, promoted and supported “the hiring of people with disabilities and targeted disabilities.”
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    Get inspired by a weekly roundup on living well, made simple. Sign up for CNN’s Life, But Better newsletter for information and tools designed to improve your well-being.

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    You have been brushing your teeth for most of your life, but are you sure you’re doing it right?
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    Four elements are the basis of good oral hygiene: brushing twice a day with a fluoride toothpaste, flossing once a day, eating a healthy diet, and seeing a dentist regularly, said Dr. Matthew Messina, clinical associate professor at the Ohio State University College of Dentistry and a spokesperson for the American Dental Association.

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  • Travisscoks

    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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    Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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    Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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  • EugeneSaw

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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    Panama’s president, Jose Raul Mulino, provided a different account of the discussion, saying after the meeting that he did not believe Mr. Rubio had conveyed a threat that Mr. Trump might move to reclaim the American-built shipping route. He said he saw little risk of such an intervention.
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    But President Trump, speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland about the canal on Sunday, said that “we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen.”
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    The State Department’s summary of the meeting in Panama City, Mr. Rubio’s first with a foreign leader since becoming secretary of state, struck a tone that was sometimes aggressive. It said Mr. Rubio had told his host that Mr. Trump had made a “preliminary determination” that China’s government exercised control over the canal.

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    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

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    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

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    2025年2月8日
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    The State Department’s summary of the meeting in Panama City, Mr. Rubio’s first with a foreign leader since becoming secretary of state, struck a tone that was sometimes aggressive. It said Mr. Rubio had told his host that Mr. Trump had made a “preliminary determination” that China’s government exercised control over the canal.

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  • RonaldRat

    Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, US President Donald Trump and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Getty Images
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    President Donald Trump announced that he’s pausing tariffs on Mexico and Canada after speaking to leaders of both countries on Monday — just hours before the sweeping actions were set to go into effect.
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    The proposed tariffs, which Trump announced Saturday, consisted of a 25% duty on all imports from Mexico and most from Canada (there was a carve-out for a 10% tariff on energy products), and a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Trump said earlier Monday that he’d be speaking with China soon.
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    Trump paused the tariffs on America’s neighbors after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made commitments, some of which they’d already made, to bolster security at their respective borders with the United States.
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    “I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier Monday.

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    Some great apes realize when a human partner doesn’t know something and are capable of communicating information to them to change their behavior, a new study shows.

    Researchers from Johns Hopkins University studying bonobos found that they would point to where treats were hidden if they could see their human partner didn’t know where they were, according to a statement from the university, published Monday.

    Working with three male bonobos, study co-author Luke Townrow, a Johns Hopkins PhD student, would sit across a table from one of the animals as another person placed a treat under one of three cups.
    In some cases, Townrow would be allowed to see which cup the treat was under, and the bonobo would wait for him to pass it the food.

    At other times, he would not be able to see where the treat was, and the bonobo would point to the right cup to help him find the food.

    The “seemingly simple experiment that demonstrated for the first time that apes will communicate unknown information in the name of teamwork,” the statement reads.

    And study co-author Chris Krupenye, a Johns Hopkins assistant professor of psychological and brain sciences, told CNN that the study “is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that a non-human primate understands when someone else is ignorant.”

    This ability to intuit gaps in others’ knowledge is known as theory of mind.

    “As humans we have theory of mind, the ability to think about others’ perspectives,” Krupenye told CNN on Tuesday.

    2025年2月9日
  • Robertshory

    From fiery festivals to nature's most dazzling "sky-dance", interest in the night skies is booming, with "noctourism" poised to be a major travel trend in 2025.
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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

    Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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    2025年2月10日
  • Rolandgaf

    From fiery festivals to nature's most dazzling "sky-dance", interest in the night skies is booming, with "noctourism" poised to be a major travel trend in 2025.
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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

    Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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    2025年2月10日