
今晚,北京时间8:30,美国将发布备受关注的5月非农就业报告。随着企业和消费者面对高关税和不确定性,5月就业增长放缓几乎已成定局。市场的焦点将是“放缓幅度有多大”。
劳动力市场的预期和变数
经济学家预计5月非农新增就业13万人,低于4月的17.7万人。华尔街对此分歧显著:高盛预测略低于预期,为11万人;摩根大通与市场预期一致,为12.5万人。卡伦•摩根表示,由于ADP数据疲弱,预期已被下调。
如果非农数据显著低于市场共识,可能引发对经济衰退的担忧。巴克莱私人银行的朱利安·勒法尔格指出,若低于10万将重燃衰退忧虑,而高于预期的数据可能推高美债收益率。
美联储政策立场与市场反应
市场预期9月前不会降息,但非农数据可能影响这一判断。劳动力市场的韧性一直是经济活动的积极信号,非农数据的结果将成为美联储考量的重要因素。
库格勒表示,需要看到更多就业增长的证据以维持利率。而特朗普在ADP数据后呼吁美联储降息,显现出不同的紧迫感。
黄金市场的应对策略
黄金价格在非农数据前显得谨慎,维持在3350美元上方。若数据疲软,可能助力黄金挑战3400美元。技术上,3400美元是重要阻力位,突破或将金价推向3433-3435美元。但若受压,支撑位将见于3333美元,如突破可能面临更大回调。
此次非农就业数据可能成为判断经济真实状态的关键,尤其在当前贸易紧张和政策不确定性增加的背景下。它不仅影响投资者对市场的信心,也可能重塑关于美联储政策未来路径的预期。
部分内容数据选取&参考:NAI500、普拉斯财经等

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