
基本面
美指
汇市激战正酣!美元反弹,中美谈判与通胀数据吸引关注
美元的强势反弹、中美贸易谈判的进展以及即将公布的美国通胀数据,共同构成了本周全球汇市的核心看点。投资者在缺乏谈判细节的情况下保持谨慎,日元因日本央行政策信号而承压,而澳元和纽元则在平稳中暗藏变数。随着周三CPI数据的临近,市场波动性可能进一步加剧。
盛宝银行首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示,尽管美国官员释放了一些积极信号,市场对谈判的乐观情绪仍受到缺乏具体细节的制约。她进一步指出,若谈判未能取得结构性突破,市场信心可能难以持续。
Chanana强调,谈判结果难以预测,市场对积极突破的期待并不高。尽管如此,谈判的任何进展都可能为汇市注入短期波动,投资者因此保持高度警惕,不愿轻易押注。
黄金
美元走软和避险情绪助力金价反弹,关注中美贸易谈判
周一美元指数下跌0.2%,使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者更具吸引力。通胀预期是近期金价上涨的另一关键驱动因素。市场普遍预期,周三公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)数据将显示核心CPI同比上涨2.9%,较前值略有回升。除了经济因素,地缘政治风险和社会动荡也为金价上涨提供了外部推力。
道明证券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek指出,经济疲软、潜在的降息预期以及风险偏好的下降正促使投资者转向黄金。尤其是在中美贸易谈判的背景下,市场对全球经济增长放缓的担忧加剧,黄金作为避险资产的吸引力进一步提升。即便贸易谈判可能带来短期利好,Melek认为其对金价的负面影响有限,长期看,黄金的上涨动能依然强劲。
原油
市场风险偏好回暖,油价继续走强,短期震荡上行
油价周二小幅上涨,因市场关注亚洲大国和美国的新一轮会谈可能缓和贸易担忧情绪,从而提振全球燃油需求。与此同时,伊朗核协议及OPEC增产预期可能带来供应变数,增加下半年原油市场的不确定性。
“一项全面的贸易解决方案若达成,将显著改善全球经济前景,增强对包括原油在内的大宗商品的需求。”一位分析人士指出。
ANZ高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示:“如果OPEC最终转向完全由市场驱动的供给策略,原油市场将在2025年下半年出现大幅过剩,油价几乎必然走低。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周一,在投资者密切关注中美贸易谈判之际,美元指数震荡走低,盘中一度下破99关口,最终收跌0.21%,报99.01。美债收益率小幅回落,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.478%,2年期美债收益率收报4.012%。
观点整理:
回顾周一市场表现,在早盘期间价格短线先承压修正,主要是在上周五首次测试到日线阻力区域,亚盘承压修正到欧盘止步,位置上也是刚好触及至四小时支撑,欧盘后再度上涨,晚间虽然有所承压,并且最终阴线收尾,目前表现属于触及至阻力后回踩震荡,后续需要关注进一步向上突破的表现。
从多周期分析,周线级别来看价格压制在100.80区域阻力,那么从中期视角出发,美元指数的走势将更偏向于空头。在日线级别上随着时间的推移价格关键阻力位置于99.20位置,后续需要关注价格能否站稳日线阻力是关键。同时四小时上价格在昨日两次回踩,伴随着时间的推移昨日低点位置成为关键,价格在此位置之上持续短期多,上方关注突破表现。从一小时看目前需要关注向上发力表现,昨日多头多头可以继续等待,没有布局的也可以继续布局。
黄金
市场行情整理:
得益于美元的疲软,现货黄金自盘中早些时候触及的一周多低点反弹,收复日内全部跌幅,最终收涨0.47%,收报3325.7美元/盎司;现货白银连续第四个交易日上涨,最终收涨2.17%,报36.76美元/盎司。
观点整理:
美元指数低位反弹,带动市场风险偏好回暖,同时全球贸易局势缓和,施压金价,而美联储降息预期暂未出现明显得变化,花旗银行预期年内美联储降息75BP等待数据进一步的验证,短期技术层面维持区间震荡,等待方向选择
原油
市场行情整理:
由于对贸易紧张局势缓解的希望提振了需求前景,国际原油延续涨势。WTI原油维持在64美元/桶上方,最终收涨0.7%,报64.56美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨0.62%,报66.78美元/桶。
观点整理:
从技术面来看,美国原油(WTI)日线图显示,价格在突破自4月中旬以来的震荡区间上沿后,持续运行于65美元上方,短期呈现出温和的上升通道。

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