机构获利离场引Coinbase股价上演“过山车” 美联储剑指加密数字资产“投机属性”
在比特币迭创新高之际，加密数字资产市场发展又迎来新的“里程碑”。
4月14日晚，美国最大数字货币交易所——Coinbase成功登陆纳斯达克。
在中国通信工业协会区块链专委会轮值主席兼火币大学校长于佳宁看来，Coinbase的上市，将给整个加密数字资产市场带来三大影响，一是带动更多加密数字资产交易平台日益重视业务操作合规性，争取上市机会；二是促进更多主流投资机构将加密数字资产纳入投资组合；三是推动各国对数字资产行业法律法规的完善。
“事实上，Coinbase在业务合规运营方面堪称业内典范，获得众多的数字资产运营合规牌照。比如在欧洲获得电子货币（Electronic Money）许可证、在美国金融犯罪执法局（FinCEN）注册MSB牌照，尤其是获得纽约金融服务部门（NYDFS）颁发的数字资产经营营业执照BitLicense显得尤其重要，因为这个牌照获取难度极大，相关监管几乎达到严苛的地步，导致众多加密数字资产公司因无法获得这个牌照而离开纽约市场。”于佳宁表示。
值得注意的是，Coinbase的上市，似乎未能激发资本市场的持续追涨热情。
在上市首日交易半小时内，Coinbase股价一度触及429.54美元，涨幅达到约72%，市值一度突破千亿美元，但此后股价持续回落，截至收盘时报在328美元。截至4月15日22时美股交易时段，Coinbase股价在340美元附近。
“这背后，是不少华尔街投资机构对Coinbase业绩能否持续增长心存顾虑，纷纷选择逢高抛售获利离场。”一位涉足加密数字资产投资的华尔街基金经理向记者透露。
Coinbase在其招股说明书也承认，由于加密数字资产具有高度波动性，公司经营业绩可能会出现大幅波动。
值得注意的是，在Coinbase登陆纳斯达克当天，美国金融监管部门再度对加密数字资产“泼冷水”。
4月14日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，加密资产实际上是投机的工具。它们并没有真正积极用于支付。
这番言论令比特币一度回调逾3000美元。但截至4月15日19时，比特币再度收复失地回到历史高点64000美元附近。
“目前，投资者仍在押注Coinbase上市将带动更多主流投资机构加仓比特币资产。但与此同时，这预示着比特币价格高波动性将进一步扩大。”这位华尔街对冲基金经理强调说。
4月14日晚，美国最大数字货币交易所——Coinbase成功登陆纳斯达克。-新华社
值得注意的是，Coinbase的成功上市，正带动越来越多加密数字货币交易所的IPO热情。
市场传闻数字货币交易所Kraken、数字资产抵押贷款服务商BlockFi、加密资产交易平台Bakkt等机构都开始筹划自己的IPO进程。
全球第四大加密数字资产交易所——Kraken首席执行官Jesse Powell表示，正考虑在明年某个时候上市，很可能采用类似Coinbase的直接上市模式。
在多位业内人士看来，其他加密数字资产交易所要跟随Coinbase登陆资本市场，绝非易事。
“Coinbase的业务合规性在业界是相当出名的。”于佳宁向记者透露。一是Coinbase对平台内可交易加密数字资产的选择极其严苛，并围绕着GDAX数字资产框架制定一系列标准，包括加密数字资产与Coinbase核心价值必须高度一致；其网络技术评估、法律和合规标准也需满足Coinbase的合规标准；二是Coinbase一直在寻求获得众多的数字资产运营合规牌照，尤其是它能拿到纽约金融服务部门（NYDFS）颁发的数字资产经营营业执照BitLicense，足以证明其合规性已达到监管部门高度认可水准。
记者多方了解到，相比其他加密数字资产交易所会发行自己的交易所代币，Coinbase坚决不涉足这项业务。目前，若加密数字资产交易自行发行交易所代币，是很难得到美国金融监管部门IPO审核的，因为监管部门认为其中存在交易所既当裁判员又当运动员的利益冲突。
“这足以吸引不少华尔街投资机构愿将Coinbase股票纳入加密数字资产投资组合。”上述华尔街对冲基金向记者透露。但此举无形间会分流部分流向比特币的资金。究其原因，就资产合规性与政策监管风险考量，他们认为持有Coinbase股票的安全性略高于比特币。
值得注意的是，有着“女版巴菲特”称号的明星基金经理——方舟投资（ARKInvest）掌门人凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）所管理的三只基金在Coinbase上市首日买入约75万股Coinbase，价值约2.5亿美元。为此她不惜抛售了24万股特斯拉股票。此前凯茜·伍德投资的特斯拉股价净赚约20倍。
记者多方了解到，尽管Coinbase受到华尔街投资机构追捧，但他们是否愿意将这只股票纳入长期投资组合，仍是未知数。究其原因，Coinbase几乎所有收入均来自比特币和以太币的交易手续费收入，由于比特币与以太币过去一年分别大涨8倍与13倍，令Coinbase今年一季度的营收可能达到18亿美元，达到去年同期的9.4倍；净利润可能达到8亿美元，是去年同期的25倍。
“由于比特币与以太币涨幅过大，不少华尔街大型资管机构担心其未来业绩未必能保持如此大的增幅，因此选择在其IPO首日逢高抛售获利离场。”前述华尔街对冲基金坦言。鉴于Coinbase业绩与比特币都具有高波动性，多数华尔街对冲基金依然将Coinbase股票视为交易型资产，而不是可长期配置的稳健回报品种。
于佳宁认为，当前Coinbase估值相对较高，毕竟加密数字资产市场发展仍处于早期阶段，相关资产价格和交易量波动较大，尤其是比特币、以太坊价格等主要资产价格剧烈波动将对Coinbase收入与利润构成巨大影响，进而影响市值。
在Coinbase上市再度激发市场追捧比特币之际，美联储主席鲍威尔依然强调加密资产实际上是投机的工具，一度触发比特币回调逾3000美元。
所幸不少投资者押注Coinbase上市将带来更多主流投资机构“拥抱”比特币，令比特币迅速收复失地继续逼近历史新高。
“但是，还有多少主流投资机构愿意入场加仓比特币，却是未知数。”一位加密数字资产交易所人士向记者指出。目前有意配置加密数字资产的华尔街投资机构几乎都超配比特币，尚未配置的机构则日益担心比特币价格偏高且波动性日益扩大，不大敢贸然追涨。
记者获得的数据显示，当前华尔街投资机构持有的比特币数量占其供应量的约7%，部分机构持仓已达到加密数字资产的持有上限。
这位加密数字资产交易所人士透露，在比特币突破60000美元后，散户交易量明显高于机构。但散户要赚机构的钱，绝非易事。不少华尔街对冲基金在买入比特币时，都会在比特币期货市场建立相应空头头寸对冲价格剧烈波动风险。甚至当他们预感到监管部门要从严规范加密数字资产交易时，其期货空头头寸会大幅高于现货持仓。
全球第四大数字货币交易所Kraken首席执行官Jesse Powell近日警告称，全球各国政府可能会限制使用比特币和其他加密货币。
记者获悉，市场传闻近日美国相关部门正酝酿针对加密数字资产交易出台新的反洗钱规则，即持有加密数字资产的个人在进行逾3000美元交易时，需进行身份检查。此外，印度政府则考虑出台一项数字加密资产禁令，任何持有或交易加密货币的人都将受到处罚。
“这无疑令越来越多主流投资机构不会轻易涉足比特币投资，毕竟他们一直将政策监管不确定性视为最大的投资风险。”上述加密数字资产交易所人士指出。
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