北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议及政策声明。华尔街预计美联储官员下周将描绘强劲的经济图景，但同时不会暗示未来政策的改变。
投资者越来越信任美联储官员，因为他们表示，即使经济正以近40年来最火热的速度运行，他们也不会开始取消宽松的政策，直到明确复苏已站稳脚步。
自去年3月疫情以来，美联储一直将短期借款利率维持在接近于零的水平，并持续每月购买至少1200亿美元的债券相关资产。购买资产使美联储的资产负债表达到近8万亿美元，大约是危机开始以来的两倍。
不过，随着经济数据日益强劲，通胀压力开始增加，金融市场一直对美联储可能被迫开始收紧政策持怀疑态度。
嘉信理财集团（Charles Schwab）交易与衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克（Randy Frederick）表示：“只要美联储保持当前政策，经济前景就相当好，市场终于接受了他们的意愿。美联储提供的流动性将推动经济复苏，挑战在于他们何时决定收回这一做法。”
// 美联储将对经济前景持乐观态度 //
华尔街预期，美联储在下周结束为期两天的会议时，将对经济预期发出积极信号，但不太可能提供政策何时收紧的线索。
凯投宏观（Capital Economics）资深美国经济学家Andrew Hunter写道，美联储的声明可能“对经济前景表现出更乐观的态度”，这可能是一段时间以来美联储发布的最积极的声明。
与许多华尔街人士一样，亨特预计美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）及其同僚将提升对经济的看法，但他强调，目前距离联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在最近的会后声明中设定的“实质性进一步进展”指标仍有一定距离。
鲍威尔最近在接受哥伦比亚广播公司“60分钟”节目采访时说，美国经济已经到达复苏的“拐点”，引起了市场的注意。但他也继续强调，劳动力市场需要在实现充分就业方面取得长足进展，实现对不同收入、种族和性别群体的包容。
同样，在会后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席可能希望至少表现得有点谨慎，尤其是在可能加息和缩减资产购买步伐的问题上。
布朗咨询公司固定收益部门负责人汤姆•格拉夫认为，美联储可能会三缄其口，等到可能的最后一刻再行动。“我怀疑这个月是否会有收紧信号，而且我认为收紧信号会突然出现。”
华尔街有一种非正式的共识，即鲍威尔可能会在今年夏天开始谈论缩减购债规模，预计到今年年底，债券购买规模将温和回落。
格拉夫称：“他们希望在升息前先缩减购债规模一段时间，他们希望创造一点灵活性。“
// 一个可能的缩减QE“时间表” //
高盛（Goldman Sachs）经济学家戴维•梅里尔克（David Mericle）表示，他预计美联储将在今年下半年的某个时间点“暗示紧缩”，2022年初开始行动。他预计，美联储最初将在每次会议上削减150亿美元资产购买规模。美联储一年开会八次，所以总数是相等的。
不过，这些细节预计还不会公布。梅里尔克在一份给客户的报告中写道：尽管最近经济增长加速，但我们认为，对联邦公开市场委员会来说，开始暗示缩减购债显然还为时过早。“尽管鲍威尔主席最近开始将经济描述为处于一个‘拐点’……我们不认为他的意思是这是一个有关政策的信号。”
花旗集团（Citigroup）经济学家安德鲁•霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）表示，如果美联储决定今年开始缩减购债规模，它最早可能会在2022年底开始加息。
“在4月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上，我们预计会看到一些微调，暗示近期数据会更强劲，但不会有关于紧缩的新正式指导。这可能是在4月和/或5月就业数据强劲之后，这两份数据都将在随后的会议之前发布。”
根据芝加哥商品交易所的联邦观察工具，联邦基金期货市场的交易员实际上认为，下周会议上加息的可能性只有2.8%。到今年年底，这一前景将会略有上升，到今年年底，市场已经消化了10.5%的可能性。
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