全球美元荒缓解 美联储或重申宽松立场

2021年04月27日 3643点热度 0人点赞 633条评论

全球美元荒缓解 美联储或重申宽松立场

本周,市场将迎来美联储利率政策会议。尽管美国经济处于复苏通道中、市场通胀担忧上升,但机构投资者普遍预期美联储仍将维持此前宽松立场不变,并将在未来几个季度依然保持鸽派态度。在上述预期下,叠加市场流动性宽松,美元指数(90.93070.09260.10%)持续下行。

受美国大规模财政刺激政策及疫苗有序接种等因素影响,美国经济复苏势头强劲。3月份美国PMI数据反弹至近期新高64.7,创下37年来新高,同期服务业PMI也稳步上行。另外,3月美国新增非农就业人数91.6万人,远远超过市场预期的64.7万人,失业率回落至6.0%。

“尽管美联储官员已经注意到经济复苏将会加快,但他们仍可能重复表态称就业市场正在复苏,以及将通胀保持2%目标上方的必要性,市场对美联储政策大概率只能保持观望态度。”嘉盛集团资深分析师乔.佩里告诉记者。

长期来看,花旗分析师认为,美联储今年需要精准平衡政策措施,以保持美国经济既不过热、也不过冷。部分新兴市场国家疫情确诊人数再度回升等,将对经济过热产生抑制作用,预计未来几个季度美联储将保持政策宽松。

对于市场关注的何时缩减购债规模问题,美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示,未来决定缩减购债规模时将向外释放明确信号。此前,美联储官员透露,触发缩表的条件是疫苗普及率达到75%至80%。市场人士据此分析称,此次会议可能并非决定缩表的好时机。

“虽然美联储近两年不考虑加息,但缩表已经提上了议程。未来任何缩表暗示都可能推动美元指数走高,而围绕‘长期低利率’的讨论或导致美元重回跌势。”乔.佩里说。

近期,美元指数掉头下跌。4月以来,美元指数一路下行,从3月31日底的93.21高点跌至90.8以下。截至北京时间26日17时30分,美元指数跌至90.73,本月至今累计下跌逾2.6%。

流动性泛滥被认为是美元指数下跌的主要原因。疫情爆发之后,美联储迅速应对,为市场提供了充足的流动性。叠加美联储对大型银行的补充杠杆率(SLR)的豁免措施到期致使流动性边际更为宽松,美元指数不断下行。

各国央行也预判美元流动性紧张已经缓解。英国、日本、欧洲和瑞士4家央行上周集体发布公告称在与美联储磋商后,共同决定从7月开始停止进行“84天期”的美元流动性互换操作。

4家央行的共同声明称,鉴于美元融资状况持续改善,近期提供美元流动性的操作需求低迷,这一业务变化将于2021年7月1日生效。此外,从2021年7月1日起,这4家央行将继续每周进行7天期货币互换操作。

去年3月,美联储与英国、日本、欧洲、瑞士及加拿大央行宣布将美元流动性互换协议定价调降25个基点,新的利率将为美元隔夜指数掉期利率加上25个基点。与此同时,在目前7天期操作基础上,5家央行开始每周提供84天期限的美元流动性操作。此后一周,上述5家央行再次发表统一声明称,为了提高货币互换在提供美元资金方面的有效性,同意将“7天期操作”的频率从每周增加到每天。

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