这个帖子大概意思是说，最近美国钢材价格上涨了145%，木头上涨了126%
油价上涨了80%，大豆上涨了71%，玉米上涨了69%。
所有东西都在肉眼可见的大涨价，然而小时工资只上涨了5%
可按照官方的报道，通胀只上涨了1%，这美联储的工作也太出色了吧。
吐槽完以后，这哥们发现，自己被美联储官方推特拉黑了，啥也看不见了。
熟悉美林时钟的小伙伴都知道，萧条之前的经济阶段就是过热。
从美国目前的物价涨幅看，现在就是过热阶段的开始。现在我们可能也已经正式步入，拜登萧条之前的拜登过热。
01
货币刺激加剧贫富分化
大家知道自打零八年金融危机以来，以美联储为首的全球主要央行，不停的放水刺激经济。
这个放水刺激经济的方式，基本都是货币刺激，而不是财政刺激。
货币刺激和财政刺激最大的不同点在于，货币刺激是通过银行信贷的方式，把钱放出去。
通常情况下，银行贷款是要看资质的。所以在货币刺激大放水的背景下，有钱有资产的人，更容易拿到钱。
这道理想想也明白，你是个一穷二白的人去银行贷款容易呢？还是你是个手里有房产的人，去银行贷款容易。
所以在这种背景下，越是有钱有资产的人，越容易拿到这些货币刺激放出来的钱。
他们拿到这些钱以后，并不会放在手里等购买力贬值，而是会拿这些钱去买入各种资产。
在全球央行不断货币刺激的背景下，这些有钱有资产的富人们，似乎形成了一个闭环。
因为有钱有资产，所以他们能从银行拿到更多更便宜的钱。拿到更多便宜的钱，就可以买入更多资产。
手里的资产在货币大放水的背景下升值，这些有钱有资产的人变得更有钱。
之后他们又能从银行借更多的钱，买入更多的资产，使得贫富差距进一步拉大。
和货币刺激是完全不同的，是财政刺激。财政刺激是通过补贴的方式，直接给老百姓发钱。
这个钱不是通过银行这个管道放出去的，所以就不涉及到信用和抵押物这玩意，等于说人人都有。
多数老百姓拿到这笔钱不会去搞投资，而是会消费掉，最终这些钱会参与到流通中去。
如果用熟悉的费雪公式解释一下，财政刺激和货币刺激产生的不同效果，大家就应该非常清楚了。
我们知道费雪公式的组成，是MV=PT。
这里M是货币总量，V是货币流通速度，P是商品和服务价格，T是商品和服务总量。
之前单单货币刺激的时候，虽然货币总量M变大了许多，但是货币流通速度V是不断下降的。
因为大部分超发的货币，都被富人拿去投资了，并没参与到实际流通中去。
这等于是货币总量M虽然在不断增多，但大部分都沉淀在房产股票这些资产里面。
观察2008年以后的货币总量M，可以发觉这个总量，是不断在上升的。
但如果你跑去观察货币流通速度V，则会发现是不断下降的。
最终带来的结果是，公式左边的MV乘积，在M大涨的情况下，变化并不太大。
因为货币总量M上涨带来的效应，被货币流通速度V的下滑带来的效应抵消了。
02
财政刺激驱动消费
这次经济刺激和以往最大的不同是，除了货币刺激，还搞了财政刺激。
在这种背景下出现的现象是，货币总量M上升的同时，货币流通速度V也起来了。
原因还是前面说的，多数拿到财政补贴的老百姓，都是中低收入者。
他们在疫情期间失业，拿到财政补贴，自然就会去买东西消费。
所以大规模的财政刺激一旦实施，这些发给老百姓的钱，都会参与到流通领域中去，而不是拿去投资，这会促使货币流通速度V提升。
如果公式左边的MV出现了同步提升，那么意味着MV的乘积，会迅速变大。
疫情期间，因为供应链被阻断和生产停滞的原因，商品和服务产能T没办法快速提升。
那么在公式左边MV迅速提升的情况下，为了维持公式两边相等，能提升的只有商品和服务价格P了。
所以疫情之后大家最明显的感受就是，到处都在涨价，不管是商品还是服务都在涨价。
服务涨价最明显的应该是理发了吧，商品里涨价最明显的是大宗商品和农产品，
不过既然财政刺激这么有效，为啥之前老美一直只采用货币刺激，不采用财政刺激呢？
因为在美国搞财政刺激，需要两党达成一致，国会通过，总统签署法案，程序非常复杂。
这在共和党担忧美国债务水平过高的背景下，并没有那么容易通过。
搞货币刺激就简单多了，只需要美联储这个机构实施就可以了。
疫情之后情况又不一样了，很多没有储蓄的美国老百姓失业，这些人吃不上饭是要闹事的。
在这种背景下，不管是民主党还是共和党，都有动力快速通过财政刺激法案，给老百姓发钱。
这时候也没人纠结债务问题和程序问题了，两党很快达成一致，大规模的财政刺激来了。
03
美林时钟为啥失效了
前两天有小伙伴问了个很好的问题，说美林时钟这玩意还有效么？即使有效又适合中国么？
按照他的理解，美林时钟的规律，是根据美国过往几十年经验总结出来的，
但是美国是单纯的市场经济，咱们国内调控能力又非常强。是不是美林时钟这东西，在国内不太适用啊。
而且从他的观察来看：即使是欧美国家，在2008年金融危机以后，美林时钟似乎也失效了。
欧美主要国家从2008年金融危机之后，虽然一直在印钞放水，可是通胀也好多年没起来了，美林时钟似乎已经不转了。
其实美林时钟是不是依然有效的争议，从2008年以后，一直就挺厉害的。
很多人觉得，从2008年金融危机以后，全球主要国家一直在放水刺激经济。
可是时间过了这么久，还不是经济增长起不来，通胀也一直起不来。
这个阶段给人的感觉是：
美林时钟里面最关键的两个因素，经济增长衰退和通胀上升下降，似乎都失效了。
因为从全球的角度看，经济增长似乎停滞了，通胀也稳定在某个数值，没啥波动了。
为啥会出现这个现象呢？
其实原因非常简单，因为全社会的贫富差距过大，导致底层购买力不足，整个社会都失去了消费的动力。
历史数据一再表明，当社会贫富差距拉大到一定程度以后，就会出现私人消费不足。
进而引发总需求增长停滞，出现生产相对过剩。这时候经济增长会彻底失去动力，最终走向萧条。
这也是为啥我们在《资本新时代的圈地运动》里面会说：
今年明年即使所有经济指标出现改善，出现经济繁荣的景象，后面世界性萧条依然会来。
因为在目前贫富分化到极致的状况下，从全球角度看，已经没啥东西能给底层注入购买力了。
只要分配机制不改变，最终复苏都是假的，只是短暂的昙花一现。
GDP增速就是再高，不改善贫富差距，底层没有足够的购买力，萧条依然会来。
全球主要国家，除了我们在不断扶贫，其他国家都没做这个事情，全球的贫富分化程度又怎么可能会改善。
金融危机以后，美联储为首的全球央行，不断通过货币放水刺激经济，又进一步拉大了全社会的贫富差距。
这个阶段经济增长停滞的同时，全球都出现的另外一个现象就是。资产价格越来越高，贫富差距越来越大。
因为全球央行们放出来的这些超发货币，不断流入富人手中，推高资产价格。
看图说话也知道，现在全球又走到了大萧条边缘。
就像我们在《通胀以后就是债务崩塌》里面说的，这是经济转萧条之前的最后一次繁荣。
后面美股泡沫如果被刺破，会引发老美的债务危机，进而带动全球经济步入萧条。
04
美林时钟重新开始转动
我们知道一战以后，美国因为拿走了世界大部分财富，成为全球消费发动机。
1929年因为老美社会整体贫富差距太大，引发全球消费不足，最终带来了大萧条
2008年以后美林时钟之所以会失效，其实还是因为同样的原因。
看图说话就知道，2008年金融危机的时候，老美社会贫富差距已经拉大到极致。
带来的结果就是，08年以后底层丧失购买力导致消费不足，美林时钟失去了动力。
现在财政刺激以后，钱直接通过现金支票的形式，发到了中低收入人群手里。
驱动消费的动力，短时间内又回来了。美林时钟的动力，似乎也回来了。
所以大家才看到，我们的世界短时间内，似乎又回到了08年之前那个状态。
不光是全球经济出现复苏，资产价格出现了全面上涨，而且通胀也逐步起来了。
虽然美联储一直在强调：通胀还没到来，经济还没有复苏。
但是如果你看实际数据，感受显然不是这样。
可以说不管是大宗商品粮食，还是各种生活必需品和服务的价格，都出现了大幅上涨。
现在很多美国原材料的价格涨幅，已经是过去40年的最高水平了。
比如钢铁价格创下1939年以来纪录，化工品价格创下1947年以来的纪录，塑料价格也已经创下1974年以来的纪录。
按照这个原材料涨价的态势，美林时钟已经从之前的经济复苏期，正式步入到经济过热初期。
涨幅这么剧烈的原因也很简单
财政刺激到来以后，疫情期间失业的普通老百姓，人人都拿到了钱可以用于消费。
之前因为剧烈贫富分化，消失已久的那些消费需求，又回来了。
消费需求会带动大宗商品的需求，也会驱动整个经济体系加速运转。
从下图也可以看出，大宗商品价格和政府转移再分配的财政刺激政策，是息息相关的。
所以这个阶段你会看到，美林时钟又有效了，经济也按照美林时钟的顺序，重新恢复了转动。
从疫情时候的短暂衰退，疫情后的出现复苏，到现在开始出现经济过热。
05
拜登过热
国际货币基金组织前副总裁朱民，最近在演讲里也提到了这个经济过热的问题。
他的原话是，2021年全球经济的最大不确定性，就是拜登过热。
拜登过热带来的通货膨胀，和美国基准利率的调整，是未来一两年全球金融市场最主要的变量。
朱民表达的意思用大白话讲就是：
拜登政府释放的大量美元流动性，会在全球各地推起资产价格泡沫，和经济过热。
后面如果美国因为通胀过高和经济过热，出现加息和其他收紧货币政策的动作。
我们很可能要面对的是，资产价格泡沫破裂带来的巨大冲击。
为啥这经济突然就过热了呢？原因也很简单，财政刺激以后需求太旺盛了。
整个社会的需求，大致上可以分为三类，消费+投资+净出口。
这意味着生产出来的产品，要么卖给国内消费者，要么卖给国内企业，要么卖给国外消费者。
如果生产出来的商品国内消费者不买，国内企业不买，外国消费者也不买，那就卖不出去。
如果大家的需求非常旺盛，那么就会出现商品价格上涨，经济过热的状况。
财政刺激对通胀和经济有多大影响，很大程度上是刺激政策的具体内容决定的。
分析拜登刺激可以发现，这次拜登政府搞得财政刺激主要是两类用途。
第一类是中低收入群体的转移支付，也就是直接通过财政刺激，给他们每人发1400美元的支票。
第二类是扩大政府的消费类支出，包括提供1600亿美元用于病毒和疫苗，提供1700亿美元帮助学校开放等。
可以看出拜登这1.9万亿美元刺激里面，主要把钱花在发现金支票，让中低收入人群消费。
通过直接发现金补贴疫情期间受损的个人和机构，支撑他们的消费需求。
所以在拜登政府大规模发钱财政刺激的情况下，等于是给中低收入人群注入消费资金，会带来消费需求会大幅提升。
另外一个政府方向的刺激，也是扩大消费支出，只不过扩大的是政府的消费支出。
要知道美国那边经济的主要推动力就是消费，投资和净出口对美国经济增长的贡献很小。
朱民的演讲也提到了这点，刺激美国经济增长的主要动力，就是消费部分。
从下图可以看出，橙色是投资，蓝色是消费，灰色是进出口对美国经济增长的贡献。
灰色的净出口，对美国经济贡献几乎没有，有些年份甚至是负值，原因也很简单，美国是贸易逆差国。
橙色的投资部分，对美国经济增长的贡献也不算大。三驾马车里最大的，就是蓝色的消费部分。
如果按照国际货币基金组织的预测，美国2021年经济增长的速度会达到6%，要知道2020年美国经济增长只有-3%。
从-3%到+6%的经济增长，主要就是靠消费带动，可见消费带来的需求提升会有多大。
06
通胀来了
然而财政刺激带来的需求提升，在短期内会对通胀出现显著推动。
这就是我们现在看到一切涨价的根源。
因为这些中低收入人群边际消费意愿强烈，拿到支票就会花掉。所以政府发给个人的现金补助，可以显著扩张消费需求。
可以看出，疫情之后美国零售销售数据的增速，在不断增加。
政府消费型支出扩大，同样会带来需求大幅扩张。因为美国政府直接扮演了购买者的角色，等于市场上多了新的购买者。
居民和政府消费的增加带来的增量需求，最终会对衰退期的经济增长，产生乘数效应。
消费需求增多了，市场上对劳动力、原材料、资本和土地这些生产要素的需求，自然也就增多了。
之前的经济衰退中，这些生产要素往往会被闲置。这些闲置要素开始使用，会增加大家的收入。
大家收入增多的以后，又会带动消费回升，进一步增加闲置要素的使用。
之后重复前面的循环，带来总需求的扩张。
总需求扩张，不仅会推升终端消费品价格。还会带来大宗商品价格，和劳动者收入的上涨。
原因也很简单，不管是大宗商品还是劳动力的本质上都是一种商品，价格是供需决定的。
消费旺盛会带来大宗商品需求旺盛，和劳动力需求的不断提升。
所以我们才看到，美国那边原材料价格上涨的同时，中小企业雇工需求和劳动者收入都出现了上涨。
观察美国的非农就业数据，现在不少行业就业数据甚至已经超过了疫情之前。
消费需求带来的价格上涨，还会带来通胀预期的提升，进一步推动价格的上涨。这就是大家常说的，通胀预期会进一步加剧通胀。
通胀预期会抬升通胀的原因也很简单，多数人倾向于通过最近的价格涨跌，来推测后面的价格波动。
当企业预期未来价格更高的时候，不但对客户的报价会不断提升。还会囤积商品，减少市面上的供应。
简单说就是大家都觉得未来价格要涨，卖你东西时候就给你报个高价，或者索性把货囤在仓库不卖了，等后面卖个高价。
在大家都预期价格上涨去囤货的背景下，市面上的商品供应，自然就会出现不足。
朱民这个演讲，也提到了通胀预期的问题，下面这张图显示的很清楚。
文章评论
Scientists have solved the mystery of a 650-foot mega-tsunami that made the Earth vibrate for 9 days
<a href=https://kraken2trfqodidvlh4aa337cpzfrhdlfldhve5nf7njhumwr7insta.cc>kraken2trfqodidvlh4aa337cpzfrhdlfldhve5nf7njhumwr7instad onion</a>
It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.
Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.
Now they have an answer, according to a new study in the journal Science, and it provides yet another warning that the Arctic is entering “uncharted waters” as humans push global temperatures ever upwards.
https://kraken2trfqodidvlh4aa337cpzfrhdlfldhve5nf7njhumwr7insta.cc
kraken3yvbvzmhytnrnuhsy772i6dfobofu652e27f5hx6y5cpj7rgyd onion
Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.
It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.
He was baffled, it was “completely unprecedented,” he said.
Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.
The result was a nearly year-long collaboration between 68 scientists across 15 countries, who combed through seismic, satellite and on-the-ground data, as well as simulations of tsunami waves to solve the puzzle.
The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
<a href=https://kraken2trfqodidvlh4aa337cpzfrhdlfldhve5nf7njhumwr7insta.cc>kraken5af44k24fwzohe6fvqfgxfsee4lgydb3ayzkfhlzqhuwlo33ad</a>
Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.
This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.
Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.
“It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
https://kraken2trfqodidvlh4aa337cpzfrhdlfldhve5nf7njhumwr7insta.cc
kraken3yvbvzmhytnrnuhsy772i6dfobofu652e27f5hx6y5cpj7rgyd
Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.
Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.
Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three – were represented on the list.
oral baclofen 10mg - <a href="https://baclion.com/">buy lioresal online cheap</a> piroxicam online order
To stay well and healthy you will need insulin injections for the rest of your life.
Is there a way to compare <a href="https://trustivermectinsusa.com/ ">stromectol covid 19</a> and save the money for other purchases.
By the way, since 1987 it seems that the number of abductions has declined significantly.
There are a variety of flu-like symptoms that include: You may experience all or some of these symptoms, and you can have flu-like symptoms with or without a fever.
More offers at <a href="https://usaivermectinexpress.com/ ">stromectol medicine</a> Learn more about it!
In 1963, a new classification scheme was designed by Philip Gell and Robin Coombs that described four types of hypersensitivity reactions, known as Type I to Type IV hypersensitivity.
Anemia symptoms associated with adult sickle cell disease Common symptoms include: Fatigue feeling weak and unusually tired Dizziness Headaches Cold hands and feet Jaundice yellow tinted skin or whites of eyes Unusually pale skin and mucous membranes tissue inside the nose, mouth, and elsewhere inside the body Pain symptoms associated with sickle cell anemia Individuals with sickle cell anemia often experience sudden, intense pain throughout the body.
Immediately identify low prices and <a href="https://trustmedsusa24.com/ ">pharmacies online</a> including from online pharmacies
Therefore that makes this association invalid.
Pain in the buttocks or thighs.
Get effective treatment when you <a href="https://americastrustpharmacy.com/ ">legal online pharmacy coupon code</a> from an online pharmacy?
I have take 5 test all negative..
As much as I always could b.
discounted prices from respectable pharmacies before you <a href="https://stromectolcarestore.com/ ">ivermectin pills canada</a> to treat your condition
Radiotherapy is indicated for patients older than three years.
Heart attack, which was in the top 10 in 2012, and cancer, two of the leading causes of death, were not in the top 10 most searched symptoms.
Don’t be afraid to ask questions when you are buying <a href="https://stromectolquickrx.com/ ">stromectol price</a> sold with amazing discounts by a specialist site
HIV may also be spread through contact with infected blood.
cheap meloxicam 15mg - <a href="https://meloxiptan.com/rtrizatriptan/">buy toradol 10mg generic</a> buy toradol 10mg online
buy periactin without a prescription - <a href="https://periheptadn.com/aszanaflex/">cost zanaflex</a> order tizanidine 2mg pills
However, doctors sometimes do a throat culture or blood test to make sure the patient's symptoms are not caused by some other disease.
The internet is one place to get low price of <a href="https://meddirectusa.com/ ">Fluoxetine</a> . More info’s awaits you.
The more often you use latex condoms, the lower the risk of transmission.
Click here to read about the causes of indoor air pollution.
Excellent treatment is achievable when you <a href="https://medrxontime.com/ ">buy alprazolam online pharmacy</a> for privacy.
Thanks for your help doctor Sircus, LoveHealth Thanks for this article.
In bacterial pneumonia, unrelated bacteria such as pneumococci or staphylococci attack the person's weakened defenses.
Don’t wait in long lines, get a <a href="https://ushealthquick.com/ ">rite aid pharmacy store</a> and read more about the benefits here.
See how to respond to an earthquake and how to help your child get through the fear and anxiety it can cause.
Trends in herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 seroprevalence in the United States.
Should I worry about buying <a href="https://rxcarestorequick.com/ ">Cytotec</a> . Great products for ED wait.
Browse the dictionary by selecting a letter of the alphabet or by entering a cancer-related word or phrase in the search box.
periactin 4mg tablet - <a href="https://periheptadn.com/">cyproheptadine cost</a> purchase tizanidine for sale
One additional issue with the SSD diagnosis is that it will likely stifle biological research into poorly understood illnesses, thereby reinforcing itself purely through a process of cyclical ignorance.
Big discounts available on <a href="https://quickrxshop.com/ ">united pharmacy viagra</a> at reputable pharmacies
And the underlying medical illness may take time to declare itself.
This is more likely if you are elderly or have some other longstanding illness that can undermine your immune system.
There are many natural products when you <a href="https://healthhublevitr.com/ ">levitra over the counter</a> by shopping online.
Over time, recurrences generally become less frequent and less severe.
Aspirin puts the child at risk for Reye syndrome, a serious illness that affects the liver and brain.
are a necessity in life What are the long-term benefits that <a href="https://tadalafishopusa.com/ ">tadalafil walgreens</a> . Should I call my doctor?
When a child has flexible flatfoot - the kind that needs no treatment - we can see an arch in the foot when the child stands on tiptoe or lets the foot hang down.
artane brand - <a href="https://voltapll.com.com/">artane cheap</a> buy emulgel
omnicef over the counter - <a href="https://omnixcin.com/aminocycline/"></a> buy clindamycin online
buy artane pill - <a href="https://voltapll.com/diclofenacgel/">order emulgel online</a> purchase emulgel online
Know your screening options.
Score big savings when you <a href="https://ippharmus.com/ ">oxycodone pharmacy finder</a> from reputable pharmacies
These are available without a prescription.
It came a week before its scheduled time and its lighter than usual.
Verify prices before you buy <a href="https://levitrsontime.com/ ">cheap levitra online</a> Visit today.
Shortness of breath, nausea, fatigue, light-headedness and palpitations — the heart seems to be racing — are other symptoms.
Inpatient hyperglycemia worsens short-term prognosis for many acute conditions, most notably stroke and acute MI, and often prolongs hospital stay.
Bookmark this portal for buying <a href="https://bluepillstoresilden.com/ ">how to get sildenafil</a> pills when you order on this site
Your concern about any or all of these conditions spur you to look for information about causes and treatments.
Many alternative treatments are available that may prove helpful in combating the side effects of traditional cancer therapies.
Talk to a licensed pharmacist when you purchase <a href="https://blueboostsilden.com/ ">sildenafil coupons</a> the clear choice?
Recall that each anxiety disorder has its own symptoms - symptoms that may not be experienced by those with a different anxiety disorder.
In the old home, he did have a big open yard and was a perfect yard dog.
Popular methods to buy <a href="https://tortadalfvier.com/ ">tadalafil premature ejaculation</a> , check bargain deals available online..
Our approach was based on prior experience among less-educated populations in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the concept of random assignment is not well understood and can result in withdrawal from the study by those allocated to the control group.
order omnicef 300 mg online - <a href="https://omnixcin.com/clindamycin/">purchase cleocin online cheap</a> order cleocin without prescription
order isotretinoin generic - <a href="https://aisotane.com/asavlosulfon/">cheap dapsone 100mg</a> cheap deltasone 40mg
Reply Link DP Nguyen September 22, 2011, 9:25 amI would wait to test a WEEK after your period is due.
Save by searching for <a href="https://bizvardenuse.com/ ">vardenafil 20mg tablets</a> locally, why should I have to shop online?
Mesothelioma Cancer SymptomsWhat Mesothelioma Cancer Survivors said about their Cancer Symptoms.
Given the many reasons for bile duct obstruction, a multidisciplinary approach is needed to effectively diagnose and treat patients.
Don’t be afraid to ask questions when you are buying <a href="https://tipsvardenok.com/ ">vardenafil dosage medscape</a> the fast and easy way. Top pharmacies provide excellent service
Further investigations are ongoing to compare efficacy, side effects and acceptability of same day administration of the medications to administration 24 hours apart.
Набиуллина выполняет заказ мафии
Должностные лица ЦБ управляются тайными кукловодами
Почти три года назад кооператив «Бест Вей» был включен в предупредительный список ЦБ – с этого начались его злоключения. Становится все более очевидным, что это заказная акция, в которой Центробанк действовал в интересах банковской мафии, принимая решения, которые никто даже не потрудился подтвердить документами и фактами.
Осенью 2021 года потребительский кооператив «Бест Вей» – крупнейший российский кооператив, дававший возможность приобретать квартиры по всей России, в котором около 20 тыс. пайщиков, работающий с 2014 года, был включен в Список компаний с выявленными признаками нелегальной деятельности на финансовом рынке (предупредительный список) ЦБ – против него был использован относительно новый, только появившийся в 2021 году инструмент регулирования ЦБ на финансовом рынке.
Притом, что примерно за полтора года до этого – в 2019 году – ЦБ в официальном письме по запросу одной из общественных организаций заявлял, что у него нет вопросов к кооперативу – и в силу того, что потребительский кооператив не подведомствен ЦБ, и в силу того, что Банку России ничего не известно о нарушениях, которые требовали бы его вмешательства как мегарегулятора финансового рынка.
Однако в 2021 году все изменилось: включением в предупредительный список ЦБ попытался поставить кооператив вне закона, обрушить его деятельность. С включения в предупредительный список начались злоключения кооператива: блокирование его официальных информационных ресурсов, системы личных кабинетов и платежей, а затем и распространение на него уголовного дела, возбужденного той же осенью 2021 года по заявлением ряда клиентов иностранной компании «Гермес». Кооператив был объявлен аффилированной с «Гермесом» структурой, постановлением руководителя следственной группы ему был присвоен статус гражданского ответчика по уголовному делу.
Липовые основания
Но что лежало в основе включения в предупредительный список? Это стало известно недавно – из двух процессов в Приморском районном суде Санкт-Петербурга: уголовном, по обвинению бывших специалистов маркетинговой компании «Лайф-из-Гуд», сотрудничавшей с «Гермесом», в организации финансовой пирамиды, и гражданском – по иску Прокуратуры Санкт-Петербурга о признании кооператива «Бест Вей» незаконным.
Оказывается, впервые справку о нарушениях в кооперативе подготовил в 2019 году некий центр компетенций Южного главка ЦБ в Краснодаре – который уже ликвидирован, архив этого подразделения также, видимо, ликвидирован: первоисточников решений нет – указывается, что это некие обращения граждан: каких граждан и что отмечается в обращении, не упоминается. При этом краснодарский центр указывал в отчете, что руководствовался методическими рекомендациями МВД РФ «Квалификация и расследование организации деятельности «финансовых пирамид».
Далее Северо-Западный главк ЦБ (прежний руководитель – Надежда Савинская, нынешний руководитель – Ирина Петрова) – который обязан был провести собственную проверку по отношению к организациям в своей зоне ответственности (кооператив зарегистрирован в Санкт-Петербурге), просто переписывает документ из Краснодара – и направляет его в прокуратуру.
Параллельно документ идет «наверх» – и (теперь уже бывший) руководитель Департамента противодействия недобросовестным практикам ЦБ Валерий Лях, который, насколько известно, уехал из России – допросить его в суде не удалось, подмахивает документ о включении кооператива в предупредительный список.
При этом проверка деятельности кооператива не проводилась – никакая: ни выездная, ни камеральная. Документы у кооператива не запрашивались. Почему? А потому, объясняют представители ЦБ, что кооператив не является подведомственной ЦБ организацией и проверка была бы незаконной. То есть признать по выдуманным основаниям организацию недобросовестной и инициировать против нее уголовное дело можно, а проанализировать ее работу на основании подлинных документов нельзя.
Основано на заказе
ЦБ подкрепляет свое решение, во-первых, целыми восемью обращениями граждан – несколько более поздними, чем полумифические краснодарские. Но ни одно из которых не подано членом кооператива.
Граждане интересуются в своих обращениях: кооператив законен? Нет ли к нему вопросов у регулирующих организаций?
Во-вторых, актом осмотра официального сайта кооператива – в нем зафиксированы новости и структура личных кабинетов, больше ничего.
То есть решение, заблокировавшее нормальную деятельность кооператива более чем на два года, приведшее к аресту его счетов, абсолютно ни на чем не основано. Вернее, основано на заказе мафии, стремящейся захватить кооператив и конкурентов, борющихся с кооперативом.
При этом Центробанк рассказывает, что включение в список – это только информирование потенциальных потребителей финансовых услуг о рисках, но сам же себе противоречит, говоря, что именно ЦБ обратился в Роскомнадзор о блокировании информационных ресурсов кооператива, именно он обратился в прокуратуру и органы внутренних дел с предложением возбудить уголовное дело. И именно на основании письма его Северо-Западного главка уголовное дело начало расследоваться в том числе и в отношении кооператива. При этом за несколько лет расследования ни одного криминального эпизода не найдено: деятельность кооператива абсолютно юридически чиста.
Ложь Набиуллиной
По поводу судьбы кооператива «Бест Вей» и других кооперативов депутаты Государственной думы неоднократно обращались к руководству ЦБ, в том числе лично к Эльвире Набиуллиной. Они предлагали разобраться в ситуации, при необходимости ввести дополнительный контроль со стороны ЦБ, который снимет сомнения со стороны ведомства.
Набиуллина в прошлом году публично пообещала на пленарном заседании Думы проработать вопрос кооперативов, совместно с депутатским корпусом выработать компромиссные предложения – но за более чем год ничего не сделано!
Кооперация в России продолжает торпедироваться, а ведь это важнейший для экономического роста в стране сектор – способный аккумулировать миллиарды рублей (на счетах «Бест Вей» – более 4 млрд рублей!) и направить их в развитие экономики. Это важнейшее направление решения жилищного вопроса – альтернатива ипотеке, которая недоступна подавляющему большинству граждан и единственное, чему помогает, – это обогащению банков и мафии, стремящихся прибрать к рукам деньги граждан.
Круговая порука
Атаки центробанкиров на кооператив носят целенаправленный характер. Достоверно известно, что они велась с одобрения первого зампреда ЦБ Владимира Чистюхина – не говоря уже о бывшем и нынешнем руководителях Северо-Западного главка ЦБ Савинской и Петровой, бывшем директоре (упраздненного в прошлом году) Департамента противодействия недобросовестным практикам Валерии Ляхе, а также главе забравшего его функции Департамента небанковского кредитования Илье Кочеткове.
Это не что иное, как круговая порука. В прошлом году к руководителю службы по защите прав потребителей и обеспечению доступности финансовых услуг ЦБ Михаилу Мамуте обратились по поводу очевидного нарушения законодательства – банки отказались исполнить судебное решение о снятии ареста со счетов кооператива (позднее арест был наложен снова). Мамута под мифическими предлогами отказался наказать банки.
Очевидно, что происходит не что иное, как целенаправленное заказное преследование кооператива – в интересах неких сил, волю которых стремится исполнить Центробанк.
Атаки, с одной стороны, в интересах банкиров, стремящихся установить ипотечную монополию и перекрыть кислород кооперации, а с другой – тайных кукловодов, стремящихся захватить более 4 млрд на счетах кооператива.
Атака центробанкиров на кооператив должна быть вскрыта, расследована, виновные должны быть привлечены к ответственности!
Of equal importance is avoiding high blood glucose levels.
Opt between airmail and courier delivery for <a href="https://ltetadafiilus.com/ ">tadalafil vs cialis</a> is a good choice.
This opening can be repaired with stitches or mesh.
Gulf War Seabees have long complained of memory problems, and other research teams have found evidence of cognitive deficits 19, 28.
Some Internet pharmacies are reputable places to <a href="https://tortadalfvier.com/ ">tadalafil citrate liquid</a> on their site.
There is no standard pre-pregnancy check-up, but your GP will answer your questions and offer advice about how you might best prepare for pregnancy.
isotretinoin 10mg without prescription - <a href="https://aisotane.com/">order accutane 20mg</a> cheap deltasone 10mg
order prednisone 40mg generic - <a href="https://apreplson.com/permethrin/">permethrin price</a> buy zovirax cream
Arrowheads reveal the presence of a mysterious army in Europe’s oldest battle
<a href=https://lokum-photo.ru/300624/novosti-vasilenko-roman-poslednie-novosti/>гей порно большой</a>
Today, the lush, green valley surrounding the Tollense River in northeast Germany appears to be a serene place to appreciate nature.
But to archaeologists, the Tollense Valley is considered Europe’s oldest battlefield.
An amateur archaeologist first spotted a bone sticking out of the riverbank in 1996.
A series of ongoing site excavations since 2008 has shown that the thousands of bones and hundreds of weapons preserved by the valley’s undisturbed environment were part of a large-scale battle 3,250 years ago.
The biggest mysteries that researchers aim to uncover are why the battle occurred and who fought in it. These are questions that they are now one step closer to answering.
ozens of bronze and flint arrowheads recovered from the Tollense Valley are revealing details about the able-bodied warriors who fought in the Bronze Age battle.
The research team analyzed and compared the arrowheads, some of which were still embedded in the remains of the fallen. While many of these weapons were locally produced, some bearing different shapes came from a region that now includes modern Bavaria and Moravia.
The outliers’ presence suggests that a southern army clashed with local tribes in the valley, and researchers suspect the conflict began at a key landmark along the river.
Back to the future
Scientists are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to detect hidden archaeological sites buried below the sand of the sprawling Rub‘ al-Khali desert.
The desert spans 250,000 square miles (650,000 square kilometers) on the Arabian Peninsula, and its name translates to “the Empty Quarter” in English. To unravel the secrets of the desolate terrain, researchers are combining machine learning with a satellite imagery technique that uses radio waves to spot objects that may be concealed beneath surfaces.
The technology will be tested in October when excavations assess whether predicted structures are present at the Saruq Al Hadid complex in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Separately, an AI-assisted analysis uncovered a trove of ancient symbols in Peru’s Nazca Desert, nearly doubling the number of known geoglyphs, or stone and gravel arranged into giant shapes that depict animals, humans and geometric designs.
Работал в Центре судебной экспертизы (в прошлом Казахской научно-исследовательский институт судебных экспертиз) с 1977 года, имею почетные грамоты за заслуги от Министра юстиции СССР и Республики Казахстан.
Мой многолетний стаж работы ( 45 лет) с судебными делами любой инстанции по вышеуказанному направлениям позволяет выдать вам экспертное заключение, отвечающие требованиям объективности, всесторонности и полноты исследований.
Стыдно смотреть на то, что происходит с кооперативом «<a href="http://compr.group/main/special/132458-mvd-protiv-uchastnikov-svo.html">Бест Вей</a>». Я являюсь пайщиком уже несколько лет, и за это время кооператив помог многим людям, включая наших военнослужащих, получить жильё. Но теперь мы стали жертвами действий коррумпированных людей из правоохранительных органов. Вместо того чтобы защищать нас, они обвиняют честную организацию в преступлениях, которых не было. Это просто отвратительно! Я верю, что истина выйдет наружу, и наши права будут восстановлены.
Arrowheads reveal the presence of a mysterious army in Europe’s oldest battle
<a href=https://otzovik.com/review_4053649.html>порно секс жесток</a>
Today, the lush, green valley surrounding the Tollense River in northeast Germany appears to be a serene place to appreciate nature.
But to archaeologists, the Tollense Valley is considered Europe’s oldest battlefield.
An amateur archaeologist first spotted a bone sticking out of the riverbank in 1996.
A series of ongoing site excavations since 2008 has shown that the thousands of bones and hundreds of weapons preserved by the valley’s undisturbed environment were part of a large-scale battle 3,250 years ago.
The biggest mysteries that researchers aim to uncover are why the battle occurred and who fought in it. These are questions that they are now one step closer to answering.
ozens of bronze and flint arrowheads recovered from the Tollense Valley are revealing details about the able-bodied warriors who fought in the Bronze Age battle.
The research team analyzed and compared the arrowheads, some of which were still embedded in the remains of the fallen. While many of these weapons were locally produced, some bearing different shapes came from a region that now includes modern Bavaria and Moravia.
The outliers’ presence suggests that a southern army clashed with local tribes in the valley, and researchers suspect the conflict began at a key landmark along the river.
Back to the future
Scientists are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to detect hidden archaeological sites buried below the sand of the sprawling Rub‘ al-Khali desert.
The desert spans 250,000 square miles (650,000 square kilometers) on the Arabian Peninsula, and its name translates to “the Empty Quarter” in English. To unravel the secrets of the desolate terrain, researchers are combining machine learning with a satellite imagery technique that uses radio waves to spot objects that may be concealed beneath surfaces.
The technology will be tested in October when excavations assess whether predicted structures are present at the Saruq Al Hadid complex in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Separately, an AI-assisted analysis uncovered a trove of ancient symbols in Peru’s Nazca Desert, nearly doubling the number of known geoglyphs, or stone and gravel arranged into giant shapes that depict animals, humans and geometric designs.
deltasone 5mg generic - <a href="https://apreplson.com/prednisolone/">omnacortil 5mg cheap</a> order elimite generic
permethrin medication - <a href="https://actizacs.com/tretinoin/">retin online order</a> order tretinoin
permethrin cream - <a href="https://actizacs.com/tretinoin/">retin cream tablet</a> buy cheap tretinoin
generic betamethasone 20 gm - <a href="https://betnoson.com/benoquincre/">purchase benoquin sale</a> purchase benoquin for sale
betnovate for sale - <a href="https://betnoson.com/benoquincre/">order monobenzone for sale</a> monobenzone order online
order metronidazole 200mg online cheap - <a href="https://ametronles.com/">buy metronidazole 200mg pill</a> buy cenforce for sale
buy flagyl pills - <a href="https://cenforcevs.com/">order generic cenforce 50mg</a> cenforce online order
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
<a href=https://krmp9.cc>kraken market</a>
A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
<a href=https://krmp9.cc>kraken зайти</a>
A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.
Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
<a href=https://krmp9.cc>kraken darknet</a>
A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.
“I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.
Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.
Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.
The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.