5月14日外汇交易提醒：美元涨势暂歇，美债收益率回落
周四（5月13日）美元指数(90.7387, 0.0208, 0.02%)跌0.07%至90.72，此前一度下滑0.2%，周三该指数上涨0.7%；10年期美国国债收益率跌至1.657%，市场权衡经济重新开放迹象和通胀持续更久的风险。不过，彭博美元即期指数3个月隐含波动率触及4月以来高点后回落。瑞郎(0.9056, 0.0006, 0.07%)、日元等传统避险货币走高，与大宗商品相关的加元下跌。
美国生产者物价指数（PPI）在3月份飙升1.0%后，4月份上涨0.6%。在截至4月份的12个月中，PPI上涨了6.2%，这是继3月4.2%的涨幅之后，录得的2010年该系列数据改版以来的最大同比涨幅。在周四的报告发布之前，周三公布的数据显示，4月份消费者物价指数创下了近12年来的最大涨幅。
Action Economics全球货币分析部门董事总经理Ronald Simpson在一份报告中称，美国4月PPI报告强于预期，但没有像周三CPI大涨对市场造成的影响那么大。
美联储理事沃勒周四表示，他预计未来两年通胀率将超过美联储设定的2%的目标，但他表示，在看到通胀在很长一段时间内高于目标或通胀水平过高之前，美联储不会加息。
美国里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）周四表示，让人们走出经济边缘、重回工作岗位，已成为保持美国经济复苏步入正轨的关键问题。
美联储副主席克拉里达周三表示，4月就业增长疲软和通胀走强的双重意外并未影响美联储的计划，他并称距离美国经济愈合到足以让美联储考虑撤回危机时期支持政策还有“一段时间”。
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes在报告中称，关于美元，主要还是看其它地方发生的状况，无论美联储在CPI涨幅超预期情况下是否保持坚定，我们都肯定若看到通胀率大幅上升，欧洲央行会保持警惕。在德国国债收益率上升情况下，如果
欧元(1.2081, 0.0001, 0.01%)兑美元
下跌太多我会惊讶的，即便美国国债收益率上升更多一点。
德意志银行宏观策略师Alan Ruskin写道，尽管通胀大涨幅度之大，似乎不太可能在未来几个月出现全面逆转，但单个月的数据不太可能促使美联储立即改变其立场。
欧元兑美元
涨0.07%至1.2081，稍早上涨0.3%至1.2106；
美元兑日元(109.60, 0.1500, 0.14%)
下跌0.18%至109.47；DTCC数据显示，大量在109.58现汇等值水平上对冲的短期远期合约可能支撑了
美元兑日元
。
美元兑加元(1.2166, 0.0005, 0.04%)
上涨0.23%至1.2162，稍早涨0.6%，为5月4日以来最大涨幅；加拿大央行行长Tiff Macklem称将关注汇率走势；并称大宗商品价格上涨带动下的汇率升值可能不利于出口。
纽元在G-10货币中涨幅居前，
纽元兑美元
上涨0.22%至0.7174美元，稍早上涨0.5%，创5月7日以来最大涨幅；不过近13亿纽元执行价在0.7260/70的5月18日到期合约可能使涨势放缓。
澳元(0.7729, 0.0002, 0.03%)兑美元
一度上涨0.27%至0.7746美元，扭转稍早跌势。
周五前瞻
凌晨01：00 达拉斯联储主席卡普兰参加由德克萨斯大学奥斯汀麦库姆斯商学院主办的线上问答环节
机构观点汇总
凯投宏观：美元多头料否极泰来
凯投宏观预计，美元近期的疲软不会持续下去，相反美元兑大多数货币将走强，相对收益率（而非风险偏好）将继续成为未来几年美元的关键驱动因素，但与过去几周相比，它们最终将导緻美元走强；就风险偏好而言，考虑到经济增长前景乐观，风险偏好不会进一步减弱，尽管如此，多数衡量全球风险溢价的指标（如股市收益收益率、公司债息差和波动性）目前处于或低于疫情爆发前的水平，因此风险偏好也不会大幅回升，美国疫苗的推广尤其迅速，财政支持也特别庞大，美国的增长和通胀前景是发达国家中最好的，这最终将带动美国国债收益率再次开始上升，而且上升速度快于大多数其他国家，将推动美元整体走高。
德商银行：欧元区疫苗注射前景若转乐观，欧元兑瑞郎(1.0939, -0.0002, -0.02%)将上行破位
德国商业银行的分析师指出，欧元区国家的疫苗注射行动当前正进一步进入正轨，在美国疫苗出口增加的背景下，欧盟仍有望在6月底之前追上此前制定的疫苗注射进度，这对于欧元汇价走势前景将构成持续利多，尤其，欧元相对于避险货币瑞郎的走势有望因此进一步走高。
该行指出，在本周稍作触及100日均线的支撑后企稳后，欧元兑瑞郎后市有望进一跟随市场利多消息走高。本周二的低点1.1927有望成为阶段性的底部水平，上方短线目标将重新看向3月份的高位1.1152。
而分析师更指出，一旦欧元区疫情在疫苗的协力下如预期进一步回落，欧洲央行缩减政策宽松力度的时机也将来到，这一消息背景最终将会使欧元进一步走强，最终欧元兑瑞郎汇价将上攻至2018年的高点1.1255，更长期则将上看至1.1325。
分析师Rekha Chauhan：在美元持续走强的情况下，美元兑日元上看109.90大关
美元看涨情绪使
美元兑日元
在亚洲时段受到提振。该货币对在周三反弹了近100点，创下了4月初以来的最大单日涨幅。截止至当前，
美元兑日元
交易于109.58，当日下跌0.06%。这一走势主要受到
美元指数
反弹的影响。此外，由美联储过早收紧货币政策的预期导致的风险厌恶情绪和中东局势的升级共同推动了市场对避险美元的需求。另一方面，持续增长的新冠肺炎病例继续阻碍着日本经济复苏，日本政策制定者表示需要持续的经济刺激。目前投资者将注意力转向美国PPI和初请失业金人数。
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