全球贸易战的阴云再次聚集，使得即将发布的美国4月非农就业数据成为市场的焦点。经济学家担忧，特朗普所引发的全球贸易冲突可能进一步打压全球价格水平、减少消费者支出，并对劳动力市场造成严重冲击，进而推动美国经济走向衰退。市场密切关注本周五的非农数据，预计这一数据将深刻影响美联储即将在6月可能做出的降息决策。
全球贸易战的影响与美联储降息预期
特朗普政府掀起关税战役以来，全球经济学家普遍预期，美国经济将面临通胀抬升和消费者支出削弱的双重压力。这些变化可能迅速冲击劳动力市场，促使美联储在6月采取降息行动。根据芝商所FedWatch工具显示，目前6月降息的概率已达到65%，且业内预期今年内可能进行多次降息。
近日，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，如果6月前经济数据能够提供明确方向，美联储可能采取措施以支持经济。曾以鹰派见长的美联储理事沃勒也开始转向鸽派，他强调若贸易战导致企业大规模裁员，他将支持降低利率以保护劳动力市场。
非农数据与劳动力市场的脆弱性
根据经济学家们的预期，4月非农就业报告可能面临巨大不确定性，尤其是在就业市场风向指标频频示警的情况下。有经济学家认为，新增就业可能会低于预期的13万，极端情况下甚至可能出现负增长。他还强调，非农就业报告所涵盖的调查正是对等关税宣布后的一周，企业面临的极大不确定性加剧了数据的不可靠性。
与此同时，美国失业救济申请人数略微增加，显示出劳动力市场脆弱性。但整体市场仍表现出一定的韧性，这使得即将发布的非农数据更具有决定性。4月非农就业数据此前曾强劲反弹，但此次的表现依然令市场倍感压力。
警惕市场“三杀”的重演
分析师们警告称，若非农数据未如市场预期，美国劳动力市场显现裂痕，金融市场可能重现“股债汇三杀”情境，即股市、债市及汇市同步下行。在这样的背景下，美联储选择“预防式降息”的概率将显著提升，特别是在“步入衰退”成为市场愈发明确的忧虑时。
经济学家建议投资者应考虑降低仓位，或者通过对冲手段来防范市场波动风险。初请失业金数及失业率等关键数据的预期差异将成为判断美国经济健康状况的重要指标。
在贸易战和经济数据的不确定性下，本次非农报告的重要性空前，既可能成为金融市场的分水岭，也将是投资决策中的关键参考。
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