基本面
美指
美股狂欢暗藏杀机！当”特朗普看跌期权”遇上经济高烧不退
近期美股上演绝地反击，标普500指数不仅收复4月暴跌失地，更创下九连阳的21年纪录。然而这场资本盛宴背后，大宗商品和债券市场却不断拉响警报。油价跌至四年新低，黄金稳居高位，国债收益率持续下行——这些传统”经济体温计”正在描绘一幅与股市狂欢截然不同的图景。
但Unlimited Funds首席执行官Bob Elliott比喻:当前市场就像一场”发烧梦”。当投资者从美股的迷梦中惊醒，可能要面对的是经济降温的残酷现实。历史经验告诉我们，当股市与其他市场信号持续背离时，往往预示着重大转折的到来。这场资本狂欢，或许正接近曲终人散的时刻。
黄金
分析师：投资者需持有更多黄金，配置20%的投资组合优于传统配置
FTSE Russell的分析师在最近的一份报告中表示，随着全球经济的分裂，黄金再次重新确立了自己作为一种重要的中性货币资产的地位。他们表示，在不确定性上升和通胀加剧的世界中，债市和股市陷入困境，黄金已成为一种重要的多元化工具。并指出，在过去的15年里，60%全球股票、20%债券和20%黄金的投资组合表现优于传统配置，同时也降低了波动性。
自2022年以来，在储备策略转变、地缘政治分裂以及减少依赖美元资产的愿望的推动下，央行积累黄金已成为一个主导主题。这些行动表明，全球储备组合中越来越倾向于中性、非主权担保品。
他们做出结论道：作为一种投资资产，黄金的表现明显。它与股票、债券和大宗商品的低相关性使其成为一种令人信服的投资组合对冲工具，尤其是在传统资产同时下跌的情况下。
原油
OPEC+新玩法：6月大幅增产拥抱过剩 赢得长期博弈
OPEC+的主要产油国沙特和俄罗斯宣布，6月份的日产量将增加41.1万桶，几乎是原计划的三倍。油价下跌可能会夺回失去的市场份额，并给美国页岩油等高成本生产商带来压力。这也可能是在特朗普领导的解除对伊朗或委内瑞拉制裁之前的先发制人的打击，解除对二者的制裁将给已经供过于求的市场带来更多石油。
但分析人士认为，这不仅仅是为了惩罚作弊者，这可能反映出沙特对石油市场的态度发生了更深层次的转变。沙特似乎不是抵制油价下跌，而是投入油价下跌。沙特不仅仅是在做出反应，它正在调整，用短期收入换取战略定位。这不是战争口号，这是一次重新校准，它可能会在未来几年改变市场。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周一，美元指数在亚盘、欧盘震荡下跌，后因超预期的ISM非制造业数据提振，美元指数回升至100美元下方，最终收跌0.24%，报99.79。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.350%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报3.8450%。
观点整理:
回顾周一市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线先承压下跌，之后持续震荡下跌，对于美盘价格快速下探至日线支撑区域后止步上涨，虽然最终阴线收尾，但是价格依旧在日线支撑上方运行。从多周期分析，周线级别来看价格压制在103.30区域阻力，那么从中期视角出发，美元指数的走势将更偏向于空头。在日线级别上价格站上99.40位置，那么从波段看价格已经突破并站稳日线阻力，则前期阻力变支撑，后续波段看多。短期四小时上看99.80区域支撑，价格在目前于四小时关键位置上下盘整，由于波段偏多，所以四小时上关注后续进一步突破站上四小时阻力，一旦站稳有望进一步发力。
黄金
市场行情整理:
受美元走软和避险需求推动，现货黄金日内一度涨近100美元，最终收涨2.85%，报3332.85美元/盎司。现货白银最终大涨1.42%，报32.45美元/盎司。
观点整理:
地缘政治风险和特朗普不确定政策推动下持续走强支撑金价继续走高，虽然美国非农数据超预期，叠加美元指数反弹，但并未能使得金价跌破区间支撑，本周重点留意美联储利率决议之后的方向选择，短期维持区间震荡。
原油
市场行情整理:
因市场消息称欧佩克+将继续加速增产，原油周一开盘大跌5%，收盘下跌逾1美元。WTI原油最终收跌2.06%，报57.15美元/桶；布伦特原油收跌1.82%，报60.30美元/桶。
观点整理:
OPEC+决定连续第二个月加快增产节奏，6月产量将提高至411,000桶/日，引发市场对供应过剩的忧虑。同时，美国加征关税引发需求下滑担忧,而技术层面再次测试前期低点，虽然未能加速跌破，但整体趋势依然处于空头结构之中，谨防超跌反弹之后向下破位
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