基本面分析
本周初，受大型银行对市场估值过高发出的警告及科技股大规模抛售影响，市场情绪急剧转向避险，美元走强，贵金属承压。
美元指數 (DXY)
美股周二遭遇自 10 月 10 日以来最大单日抛售，引发市场对潜在泡沫的担忧，特别是针对此前受 AI 热潮推动而屡创新高的科技股。
受摩根士丹利及高盛等大型银行 CEO 对市场估值过高发出警示的影响，美股遭遇大幅抛售，其中纳斯达克指数大跌 2.04%，道指和标普也分别收跌 0.53% 和 1.17%。此次避险情绪的升温迅速推高了美元，美元指数冲上三个月新高，对贵金属构成主要压力。鉴于美国政府持续停摆导致关键官方数据缺失，市场当前正高度关注周三发布的 ADP 民间就业报告，以寻求关于经济韧性的线索。
黄金 (Gold)
金价周二面临强大抛售压力，主要因美元走强和市场对美联储未来降息预期大幅降温。
黄金价格周二因美元强劲和降息预期减弱而遭受重压，现货金单日大幅下跌近 2%，收于每盎司 3940.75 美元。尽管股市大跌带来了避险需求，但这种吸引力被完全抵消，主要原因是美联储主席鲍威尔将上周的降息定性为一次性风险管理措施，使得利率期货市场对 12 月再次降息的预期从一周前的 90% 以上迅速降至 71%，进而强力支撑了美元和美债收益率。
原油 (Crude Oil)
国际油价周二收低，未能摆脱震荡下行区间。
国际油价周二在多重压力下收低，其中布伦特原油期货下跌 0.7%，收报每桶 64.44 美元，美国原油期货下跌 0.8%，收报 60.56 美元。油价的核心压力来自美元触及四个月高位，以及疲软的制造业数据和华尔街股市抛售潮，共同加剧了市场对全球石油需求前景的担忧。在供应端，尽管 OPEC+ 同意在明年第一季度暂停增产，被解读为对潜在供应过剩的警惕，但道达尔能源（TotalEnergies）仍预测全球石油需求将在 2040 年前保持增长，為市場提供了長期視角。
Ⅱ. 技术面分析与数据 (Technical Analysis & Data)
美元指数 (DXY) 走势分析
美元指数在基本面支持下，延续了中长线的多头趋势，目前正挑战关键阻力位。
- 月线 (长线空)： 阻力位于 102.10。
- 周线 (中线多)： 支撑位于 98.30。
- 日线 (波段多)： 阻力位于 99.05。
- 短期 (4小时)： 关键分水岭为 99.70-80 区间，价格在此位置之上维持多头对待。
结论： 美元短期保持强劲，关注能否突破 99.70-80 关键区段。若成功突破，则中长线头肩顶危机可能化解，开启新一轮上涨行情。
黄金 (XAU/USD) 走势分析
金价受到美元压力处于高位调整阶段，短期维持区间震荡结构。
在技术面上，黄金价格的短期走势反映出调整需求。现货黄金 (XAUUSD) 报 3944.39 USD/盎司，单日跌幅 0.32%，显示其受到美元持续走强及降息预期降温的压制。尽管如此，现货白银 (XAGUSD) 单日上涨 0.35%，报 41.79 USD/盎司，表现出相对抗跌性。由于技术指标偏离过大，目前金价仍处于调整结构之中，策略建议短期应维持区间震荡，采取逢高沽空、逢低吸纳的策略，等待技术指标修正完成。
原油 (Crude Oil) 走势分析
尽管基本面存在需求担忧，但技术层面显示油价仍受到关键均线的强劲支撑。
原油期货的技术面显示，尽管价格在周二有所回落，但整体看涨修正趋势仍然占据主导。布伦特原油期货报 64.44 USD/桶，单日下跌 0.70%，价格依然维持在 50 日均线之上，且相对强弱指标（RSI）虽处于超买区域但仍支持短期上涨趋势。类似地，WTI 原油期货报 60.56 USD/桶，单日跌幅 0.80%，其价格持续依靠 50 日均线的有力支撑，相对强弱指标也出现看涨交叉，进一步巩固了短期内看涨修正的稳定性。
结论： 原油技术面上关键均线提供了稳定支撑，维持短期看涨修正趋势。策略應以支撑趋势线和 50 日均线作为主要支撑，警惕短期震荡。
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