在4月28日市场开盘时，黄金价格仍然保持疲软，交易价格低于3,300美元的心理关口。当日金价下跌0.75%，虽然世界最大的两个经济体——美国和中国——释出的信号略显矛盾，但投资者仍寄希望于这两国之间的紧张局势能够得到缓和。值得注意的是，中国2025年第一季度黄金消费的下降，成为削弱这一传统避险资产需求的重要因素。
贸易争端与避险资产的命运
最近的信号表明，中国可能会考虑暂停部分美国产品加征的125%关税，以应对美国对中国商品的较高关税。这一消息虽然暂时提振了市场情绪，但还存在许多不确定因素。美国总统特朗普反复强调与中国的贸易谈判正在进行，激发了市场对贸易战迅速缓和的希望。然而，中国方面尚未确认任何豁免措施或关税谈判，特朗普多变的言论和全球经济放缓的担忧继续支持投资者对黄金的谨慎需求。
与此同时，美国加征关税和地缘政治风险如俄罗斯乌克兰冲突的不确定性，加上朝鲜涉及该冲突的消息，增加了避险资产的吸引力。尽管如此，黄金价格还是受到美元走强和美联储政策前景的多重影响。尽管市场押注美联储可能在6月恢复降息周期，但地缘政治的不稳定性使得避险黄金的需求保持一定水平。
中国黄金消费模式的转变
中国黄金协会报告显示，2025年第一季度，中国黄金消费量同比下降约6%，至290.492吨。其中，因高价格抑制对黄金首饰的需求，该类产品消费下降了26.85%。不过，金条和金币的需求逆势上涨29.81%，至138.018吨，显示出市场的结构性变化，投资者正在寻求不同的避险资产形式。
技术分析
在技术面上，看跌情绪主导的投资者被建议谨慎等待金价跌破38.2%斐波那契回撤位或更低的月度支撑点3,265-3,260美元之前再行进入市场。确认此回调将表明金价可能会进一步下跌，触及50%回撤位即3,225美元，甚至3,200美元的水平。这样的下跌将暗示短期内的顶部已经形成。
相反，若金价试图突破3,300美元，可以预见价格将在3,331-3,332美元的高点区域面临强大阻力。任何强势反弹都可能被视作新的卖出机会，尤其是在3,366-3,368美元区域。若果断地突破该水平，黄金可能会重新测试3,400美元大关，甚至有望在多头势力重新集结后挑战3,500美元的心理关口。
本周展望与关注
投资者需密切关注美国关键宏观经济数据的发布，这些数据将对美联储的未来政策路径带来洞见。周二的JOLTS职位空缺报告、周三的美国个人消费支出以及周五的非农就业报告（NFP）将尤其重要。这些数据将为金价提供进一步的短期指引。
投资者需谨慎关注：
- 中国与美国之间的贸易关系及其对全球经济的长期影响。
- 美联储政策的可能走向，特别是与6月降息相关的信息。
- 地缘政治局势的发展，尤其是俄乌冲突的最新进展及相关参与国的立场变化。
部分内容数据选取&参考：fx678、光明日报、中国黄金协会
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