亚洲新冠病毒感染病例的快速增长和疫苗接种的缓慢步伐正在考验各国央行，它们可以做什么来更进一步地支持突然停滞的经济复苏？
当利率已经很低的时候，最可能的政策响应将会体现在财政政策方面，各国央行将退为配角。在这样的背景下，本周印度尼西亚、韩国等国央行做出的维持利率不变决定将变得苍白无力。
加拿大丰业银行亚太经济主管麦卡利（Tuuli McCully）说：
“在我看来，进一步的货币政策刺激空间不多了，至少在降息等传统政策方面来看是这样的。我预计额外的财政刺激将会在经济复苏中起到重要作用。”
在印尼，尽管借贷成本在攀升，为了刺激经济活动，财政部已经实行更多的减税政策，并计划在今年坚持其840亿美元净债券发行计划。
尽管韩国不断扩大的社交距离抑制了消费者支出，促使政府承诺增加财政支出以创造就业，韩国的经济仍受到出口大幅增加的缓冲。市场同样预计韩国央行周四开会的时候也会保持利率不变。
新西兰的经济在经历了去年年底的收缩后，目前正在持续复苏。上个星期政府发布的年度预算包含逾一代人以来最大幅度的福利支出，这是作为支持经济增长的一部分措施。周三的利率决议上，新西兰联储如期按兵不动，但表示预计会在明年二季度开始加息。
印度是全球最新病毒感染浪潮的震中，即使其他疫情已经得以控制的经济体，像新加坡和台湾，也在对抗突发事件。日本仍然在与病例传播作斗争。
印度地区的疫苗接种率有所滞后。对比之下，新加坡疫苗接种已经大致覆盖了30%的人口，中国紧随其后，疫苗接种率在15%左右，其他国家则远远落后。
德意志银行新兴市场研究主管萨米尔·戈埃尔（Sameer Goel）说：
“该地区缓慢的疫苗推广已经越来越被证实是一个拖累，包括在更发达的经济体中，他们迄今为止关联追踪，快速检测和保持社交距离的成功策略也受到了最近病例频发浪潮的挑战。”
鉴于财政空间有限，到2022财年，预算赤字将只占印度国内生产总值的6.8%，低于去年预测的9.5%，印度央行则将集中精力应对这次危机。此外，基准利率已经在挥之不去的通货膨胀下保持一年未变。
下个月印度央行货币政策委员会很可能保持利率不变，但是为了保持低借贷成本可以连续在第二个季度扩大量化宽松的规模。
到目前为止，印度储备银行已经向银行系统注入了超过14万亿卢比。
其他亚洲国家的央行也正在支持本国的财政政策。日本银行行长黑田东彦（Haruhiko Kuroda）在上周说将延续强劲的货币宽松政策，这暗示着其收益率曲线控制计划将维持低政府债券收益率来支持额外的财政支出。为了经济中需要低借贷成本的部分，中国央行也在继续确保维持低的借贷成本，同时对经济刺激的规模保持一个总体的有规律的应对方法。
澳新银行（Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd．）亚洲研究主管 Khoon Goh说：
“相比之下，在应对现今的病毒风波时，货币政策并不如财政政策有效。财政政策的扩张才是我们需要的。”
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