时至今日，当人们回想起1970年代的那次大通胀，仍然心有余悸。布莱克利咨询集团（Bleakley Advisory Group）首席投资官彼得·布克瓦（Peter Boockvar）日前警告称，大通胀可能正在卷土重来。
“现在的货币政策……在刺激经济活动方面是无能为力的，”布克瓦表示。
他警告称，这一问题在对利率变动最为敏感的房地产市场尤其明显，“我们正处在一个极低利率并且不再能刺激房地产市场的时期。在采购方面，我们知道库存不足和价格飙升正在减缓交易步伐。”
布克瓦还提到了再融资利率。根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会的数据，越来越少的人正在进行再融资。上周，住房抵押贷款申请总量下降了3.1%。
对布克瓦来说，更重要的是再融资指数的长期趋势。“再融资水平处于2020年2月以来的最低水平。所以，我们不会再从非常低的利率中获得那种刺激效果。”他表示。
布克瓦从去年年中开始就关注通胀。他去年8月曾表示，新冠肺炎疫苗领域取得的重大进展最终将刺激巨大需求，从而导致通胀爆发。
美联储无力遏制通胀
那么，现在有什么办法来控制通货膨胀吗?
“美联储知道如何解决这个问题，”布克瓦表示。“问题是他们是否有勇气这么做。”
布克瓦怀疑美联储是否会比华尔街预期时间更早地结束量化宽松或加息，因为这可能对股市和经济造成影响。
“我认为通胀持续的时间比其他人认为的要长。”他暗示物价上涨将冲击经济的几乎每个角落。他警告称，一旦企业开始提价，他们就不会轻易收手。
由于通胀压力，他预计基准10年期美国国债收益率将在年底前突破2%，“这将给股市制造障碍。股市最近有所反弹，又回到了高点，原因就在于债券收益率回落。”
美国10年期国债收益率周三收于1.49%，过去一周下跌逾6%。
美股周三小幅收低，盘中在平盘上下拉锯，市场人士正等待通胀数据，以寻找美联储可能何时收紧其鸽派货币政策的线索。道琼斯工业指数收跌152.68点，或0.44%，报34,447.14点；标普500指数收跌7.71点，或0.18%，报4219.55点；纳斯达克指数收跌13.16点，或0.09%，报13911.75点。
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