IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|英国央行加息50个基点至1.75%,创27年来最大加息幅度,

2022年08月05日 9015点热度 47人点赞 1,225条评论
基本面
​美指
美国宣布猴痘疫情为突发公共卫生事件,为10年来第四次宣布该类事件。
根据美国疾病控制与预防中心最新数据,美国目前确诊猴痘病例数为6617人,为确诊人数最多的国家。本次宣布突发公共卫生事件的举措可能会在资金和法规方面释放更广泛的灵活性,以应对猴痘的传播。据悉,过去10年,美国仅针对新冠肺炎疫情、寨卡病毒以及阿片类药物滥用危机宣布过此类声明。
今年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席给出降息线索
克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特给出降息线索认为9月份可能加息75个基点也不是没有道理,但很有可能是50个基点,将以数据为指导。我认为利率应该略高于4%,然后,一旦通胀率回落至接近我们2%的目标,我们就会降息。
   
黄金
英国央行加息50个基点至1.75%,创27年来最大加息幅度,
英国央行加息50个基点至1.75%,达到2008年12月以来最高利率水平,预计英国将在2022年第四季度进入衰退,衰退将持续5个季度。英国央行行长贝利称,已摆脱前瞻性指引的框架,加息50个基点并不意味着正在走一条每次会议加息50基点的预定道路。英国央行加息后英镑盘中跳水转跌,贝利称英镑下跌目前算不上是危机。
   
原油
OPEC+联盟同意石油增产
石油输出国组织(OPEC)和盟友组成的OPEC+联盟周三同意将石油增产目标提高10万桶/日,相当于全球石油需求的约0.1%,一些分析师认为这对市场利空。 熟悉海湾地区主要石油出口国想法的消息人士称,如果今年冬季世界面临严重的供应危机,OPEC重量级成员沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋准备好 “大幅增加 ”石油产量。
  
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元指数在美国初请失业金数据公布后加速下行,美股早盘跌破106,收跌0.59%,报105.75。10年期美债收益率跌破2.7%关口。
观点整理:
美元指数确认短线周期发生转向后,今日操作自然会以看多美元指数为主,操作上尽量寻找机会逢低买入就好,而对应到非美货币则需逢高沽空,尽量选择有价值点位进行布局即可
  
黄金
市场行情整理:
贵金属在美元下跌的推动下走高,现货黄金突破1790美元/盎司,续刷7月5日以来新高,收涨1.47%,报1790.98美元/盎司
观点整理:
 市场普遍预计美国7月就业增长可能放缓,美联储放缓加息进程的预期可能会升温,有望给金价提供进一步上涨动能。
  
原油
市场行情整理:
原油跌至近6个月来的最低水平,布伦特原油日内一度大跌4%,下破94美元/桶,为2月21日以来首次,收跌3.55%,报93.56美元/桶;WTI原油自俄乌冲突开始以来首次跌破90美元,收跌3.11%,报88.02美元/桶。分析称因美国原油需求减弱,美国人开车次数低于2020年夏季。
观点整理:
部分空头离场,还有一些逢低买盘涌现,给油价提供了一些反弹动能。但隔夜英国央行加息后警告衰退风险,市场对全球经济衰退的担忧仍情绪升温,原油需求担忧挥之不去;伊朗石油部长称伊朗准备尽快返回国际原油市场,也增加供给过剩担忧,油价后市下行风险仍存。

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