IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|巴以冲突继续升级,美国总统拜登正蒙受越来越大的压力

2023年10月27日 7465点热度 64人点赞 328条评论

基本面​

美指

美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得4.9%

美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得4.9%,创2021年第四季度以来新高。耶伦表示,收益率走高是经济强劲的体现。交易员普遍认为美联储今年余下时间将保持利率不变。

黄金

巴以冲突继续升级,美国总统拜登正蒙受越来越大的压力

据美媒,有美国官员及知情人士透露,美国总统拜登正蒙受越来越大的压力,要求其打击本月在伊拉克和叙利亚多次袭击美军并造成美军伤亡的“伊朗代理人”,但拜登正在权衡是否要做出报复的决定,因他更担心加沙冲突可能会爆发成一场“地区性的风暴”

原油

不希望冲突扩大,哈马斯已准备好释放平民囚犯

伊朗宣布将于近期举行军演、伊朗外长:不希望冲突扩大,哈马斯已准备好释放平民囚犯,呼吁以色列释放6000名巴勒斯坦人。以色列表示将继续对加沙地带进行有限的地面袭击。美国再向中东增派900名士兵。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

美元指数一度逼近107关口,但美盘时段有所回落,最终收涨0.07%,报106.62。美债收益率先涨后跌,10年期美债收益率跌落4.9%关口,最终收报4.849%。两年期美债收益率回落至5%附近,最终收报5.046%。

观点整理:

美元指数首要是维持震荡,然后才是缓慢走高,虽然不少人认为美元指数已达到周期顶部,但目前还不是美元指数的顶部,局势确实错综复杂,但也没有足够理由将美元压低,所以维持高位震荡的可能性最大

黄金

市场行情整理:

现货黄金先涨后跌,其在欧盘时段一度涨至1993.52美元的日内高点,但随后有所回落,最终收涨0.26%,报1984.74美元/盎司

观点整理:

以色列地面部队周四在加沙地带北部开展行动,地缘局势担忧给金价提供支撑;但美国房市数据强劲,市场对美国三季度GDP预期比较乐观,美元和美债收益率走高,限制金价涨幅。

原油

原油再度大跌2%,WTI原油在美盘前大幅下挫,并一度跌至82.53美元的日内低点,而后虽收复部分失地,最终仍收跌2.12%,报83.45美元/桶,布伦特原油收跌2.03%,报87.21美元/桶。

观点整理:

尽管中东局势依然紧张,但报导称以色列同意暂时推迟入侵加沙,而且美国原油库存增加,美元升至逾两周高位,欧美股市普遍下跌暗示全球经济前景不佳,拖累原油需求前景。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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