鲍尔重弹宽松老调拒绝安抚债市对退场风暴的恐慌

2021年03月18日 10334点热度 0人点赞 2,321条评论

鲍尔重弹宽松老调拒绝安抚债市对退场风暴的恐慌

早在联准会(Fed) 开会之前,押注通膨升温会促使Fed 提早升息的债市交易员,就把10 年期美债殖利率推升到逾一年来最高水准。但Fed 并未被吓阻,决策官员坚持推行新政策架构,承诺延续宽松并允许通膨暂时升温,除非经济有实质进展才会紧缩,Fed 甚至未公布是否延续疫情期间较宽松的「补充杠杆率」(SLR),但债市并未因此陷入恐慌。

决策出炉后,10 年期美债殖利率从高点下滑,盘中升破1.68% 后回稳,美股也回升,市场原本担心的剧烈震荡并未出现。

彭博专栏作家Brian Chappatta 指出,虽然Fed 预测通膨将升温,但到2023 年底前都不会调升利率,拒绝迎合债市交易员因为削减恐慌(taper tantrum,或退场风暴) 涌现的恐慌。这股不安情绪是导致近来殖利率居高不下的因素。

Fed 周三保持利率和购债计画不变,且大幅上修经济成长、通膨预测,但利率点阵图中位数显示官员预期直到2023 年底前仍不会升息。

Fed 主席鲍尔在记者会中表示,目前政策合宜,最近的殖利率上扬并非市场失序现象,无需对殖利率波动回应。此外,未来几天再公布SLR 规定,该规定预定3 月底到期。

利率点阵图显示,Fed 决策官员对好几波财政刺激的效应并非全然无动于衷— 预测2023 年升息的人数从去年12 月的五人增加到七人。但鲍尔强调,大部分FOMC 成员都预期2023 年底前不会升息。此外,Fed 需要看到通膨「实质且持续超过2% 目标」,不会只因「预期将超过2%」就紧缩。

曾任Fed 经济学家的Cornerstone Macro 合伙人Roberto Perli 说:「Fed 在这场记者会不厌其烦一再传达同样的讯息:我们致力于新政策框架,和我们正在做的事。」

鲍尔说,决策委员希望看到实际数据,不会只凭预测行事,「我们的确预期,随着疫苗大规模接种和财政支持到位,就业和通膨会有更快速的复苏,但我们得先看到此事发生。」

ICAP 首席经济学家Lou Crandall 说,Fed 行为迥异于以往,他们愿意承受风险,认为这么做的成本小于无意间打压经济成长需付出的代价。


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    The staff at Australian flag carrier Qantas must have been flat-out like a lizard drinking sorting that mess out. And if you don’t understand that lingo, it’s time to check out our guide to Aussie slang.

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    The park said rangers spent 20 minutes carefully removing molds and foreign debris from surfaces inside the cave, noting that while some members of the ecosystem that rose from the snacks were cave-dwellers “many of the microbial life and molds are not.”
    The post called that particular impact on the cave “completely avoidable,” contrasting it with the hard-to-prevent fine trails of lint left by each visitor.

    “Great or small we all leave an impact wherever we go. Let us all leave the world a better place than we found it,” the post urged park goers.
    The park’s website says that eating and drinking anything other than plain water attracts animals into the cavern.

    Carlsbad Caverns followed up its post about the Cheetos bag with a post about the “leave no trace” principle of disposing of waste properly.

    “Contrary to popular belief, the cave is NOT a big trash can,” the post said, yet rangers pick up waste left behind every day.

    “Sometimes this can be a gum wrapper or a tissue, other times it can unfortunately mean human waste, spit, or chewing tobacco.” Visitors are asked to make sure they don’t leave trash in the cavern and to use designated restrooms.

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    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
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    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
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    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
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    The wrecks of explosives-laden Nazi ships sunk in the Danube River during World War II have emerged near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, after a drought in July and August that saw the river’s water level drop.

    Four vessels dating from before 1950 have also come to light in Hungary’s Danube-Drava National Park near Mohacs, where the Danube’s water level stood at only 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) on Tuesday, the lingering effect of severe heat waves and persistent drought in July and August.

    The vessels revealed in Prahovo were among hundreds scuttled along the Danube by Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, destroying the ships themselves. The wrecks can hamper river traffic during low water levels.
    Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sandbanks.

    Endre Sztellik, a guard at the Danube-Drava national park, said of one of the ships, “we still don’t know what this is exactly. What is visible and an unfortunate fact is that the wreck is diminishing as people are interested in it and parts of it are going missing.”
    The Danube stood at 1.17 meters (3.8 feet) in Budapest on Tuesday, which compares with an all-time record low of around 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) registered in October 2018. During floods, the Danube rises well above 6 meters (19.7 feet).

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    2024年9月11日
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    Singing about the perils of fame, being dragged out from beneath a fallen chandelier then bleeding to death in front of a roomful of celebrities: Lady Gaga was not shy about making her debut at the MTV Video Music Awards.

    The year was 2009 — many will remember it as the year rapper Ye (formerly Kanye West) stage-crashed 19-year-old Taylor Swift and suggested her award for Best Female Video should have gone to Beyonce instead. But never one to be overshadowed, Lady Gaga, then 23, made some pop culture history of her own that night.

    Her rendition of “Paparazzi” — lamenting both unrequited love and the sinister effects of hounding tabloids — has gone down in the mists of Gaga legend; not least because a lack of high-quality footage means fans must resort to watching grainy screen-recorded versions circulated on social media.
    Over the limited number of pixels, Gaga can be seen at the start of the performance in an all-white ensemble: a bejeweled, asymmetric lace bodysuit and matching cape, thigh-high boots, a feathered Keko Hainswheeler headpiece and strings of glinting pearls. As she staggered back from her piano at the song’s crescendo, however, an audible gasp swept the room as thick blood suddenly appeared to be pouring from her abdomen.

    “I’m your biggest fan, I’ll follow you until you love me,” Gaga wailed desperately, her once-pristine outfit now daubed in scarlet. She ended the number suspended above the stage, ‘dead,’ as more blood dripped from her eyes.

    “(It) gives me chills every time I watch it,” Olivia Rodrigo told MTV in 2021. “I think Lady Gaga is the best performer of our generation.” The “Drivers License” singer appeared to take notes. At this year’s Grammy Awards, she began to ‘bleed’ from clenched fists while performing her hit “vampire,” spreading fake blood across her arms and neck as the song progressed.

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    Компания «Life Is Good» позиционировала себя как финансово-консалтинговый проект. Она привлекала денежные активы от клиентов, формируя из них инвестиционные вклады, которые приносят пассивный доход от 20% годовых в валюте.

    Официальный сайт компании — lifeisgood.company. Ценной информации на нем очень мало. В разделе «О компании» вместо рассказа о том, чем занимается компания, — общие фразы про финансовую независимость и благополучие клиентов, а также шесть рекламных роликов с известными людьми.
    Данная компания создана в 2014 году. Зарегистрирована в государстве-офшоре Белиз, что находится в Центральной Америке. Соответственно, выданный там сертификат не имеет на территории России никакой юридической силы. Лицензия ЦБ РФ отсутствует.

    Руководитель компании — Роман Василенко, обладатель многочисленных фотошопных регалий, количеству которых позавидовал бы даже Александр Невский (уот так уот), ветеран МЛМ движения в РФ, ну практически святой человек.

    С 1990 года по 1999 год служил в Вооруженных силах РФ.

    После службы работал в инвестиционной компании Save-Invest (Si), зарегистрированной в Швейцарии, которая обещала инвестиционные продукты со сверх доходностью. В 2000х годах газета Коммерсантъ выпустила статью о расследовании сотрудников ФСБ на предмет ведения мошеннической деятельности в РФ.

    В 2012 году руководитель Оренбургского управления Татьяна Горынина, обманувшая своих клиентов на 50 млн. получила 6 лет тюрьмы за мошенничество.

    Далее работал в инвестиционной компании “Life Division”, которая до сих пор продолжает свою работу.

    Также Роман активно ведёт блог в инстаграмме и на ютуб, темы всё те же — успешный успех, освободись от рабства, нужно только захотеть и т.д.

    Участники делали ежемесячные взносы в счет стоимости будущей квартиры. Значительная часть средств шла организаторам компании, а все остальное делились между вышестоящими пайщиками.
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    2024年9月12日
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