
周四,美国劳工统计局发布的最新数据显示,美国6月的非农就业数据表现优于预期,引发市场广泛关注。这一强劲数据为市场和政策制定者带来了新的考虑因素。
非农就业亮点:
新增就业超预期,失业率意外回落
数据显示,美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人,显著高于预期的11万人;前值也被上修至14.4万人。与此同时,失业率降至4.1%,低于市场预期的4.3%及前一个月的4.2%,反映出劳动力市场的韧性仍在。
不过,薪资增长表现逊色,6月平均时薪环比仅增长0.2%,不及预期的0.3%;同比涨幅为3.7%,显示工资增长仍有放缓迹象。
美元反弹,黄金回调
就业数据发布后,美元指数迅速反弹至97点,涨幅达0.39%。与此同时,现货黄金价格短线下挫19美元,跌破每盎司3320美元。债市方面,两年期美债收益率跳升近10个基点,显示投资者迅速调整对短期货币政策路径的预期。
政策预期转变:
7月降息概率大幅下降,9月仍存变数
此次非农报告的亮眼表现改变了市场对美联储近期政策的预期。此前,利率期货交易员普遍预计在即将召开的美联储会议上很可能宣布降息,但强劲的数据促使他们放弃了7月降息的押注。目前,市场预测9月降息的概率已降至80%,而在报告发布前,这一比例曾高达98%。
就业结构解析:
政府部门领涨,私人企业表现疲软
6月就业增长的主要贡献来自政府部门,增加了7.3万个岗位,其中州和地方政府占据大头,而联邦政府连续第五个月减少岗位。值得注意的是,建筑业的就业增长尤为显著,增加了15,000个岗位,这一增长势头是自去年年底以来最强劲的一次。
贝莱德高级投资组合经理Jeffrey Rosenberg警告称,私人部门就业增长仅为7.4万,这可能是市场过度乐观反应的原因。他强调市场应该更加仔细审视数据中潜藏的问题。
市场反应与预期调整
非农数据的强劲表现一度减轻了市场对美联储迅速降息的预期,导致短期内国债市场巨幅波动。两年期国债收益率上升近10个基点,而长期国债的收益率也有所攀升。
与此同时,联邦储备委员会内部仍有分歧。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在发表讲话时重申,美联储需要时间观察政策变化带来的效果,并表示当前的劳动力市场足够稳固,可以支持这种观望态度。
亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克补充道,美国经济可能会面临高通胀的风险,美联储在决定降息之前需要更加耐心。这番言论进一步淡化了市场对降息的预期。
尽管就业数据强劲,美联储仍可能在观察中维持谨慎态度。随着全球经济环境变化及美国贸易政策的不确定性持续存在,市场将继续紧盯美联储的动向。
部分内容数据选取&参考:新浪财经、wikipedia等

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