美国7月CPI即将公布:通胀预期小幅回升,或难阻美联储9月降息

2025年08月12日 3167点热度 152人点赞 67条评论

美国7月CPI数据将在今晚20:30(北京时间)公布,市场普遍预计通胀温和回升,但不足以改变美联储9月降息路径。多家机构分析称,只要核心CPI不显著超预期,降息预期将持续升温,黄金、美股有望受益。

 

CPI数据前瞻:通胀温和回升

根据彭博调查的市场一致预期:

  • CPI环比:+0.2%(较6月下降0.1个百分点)

  • CPI同比:2.8%(前值2.7%)

  • 核心CPI环比:+0.3%(较6月上升0.1个百分点)

  • 核心CPI同比:3.0%(为2月以来最高)

此数据将成为检验特朗普新一轮关税影响的重要信号。富国银行指出,关税对物价的传导尚处初期阶段,消费者支出承压或限制价格持续上涨的空间。

美国7月CPI即将公布:通胀预期小幅回升,或难阻美联储9月降息

降息预期与市场解读

7月非农就业大幅下滑后,多数分析认为,只要通胀不极端超预期,9月降息几乎已成定局:

  • 高盛:核心CPI低于0.44% → 降息预期稳固。

  • 野村证券:唯有“火热”数据可能引发美股调整。

  • 摩根大通:通胀走势温和,预计四季度升至3.5%,2026年降至2.5%以下,并给出CPI区间对应的标普500走势预测:

    • 0.40% → 标普500或跌超2%

    • 0.35%-0.40% → 小幅跌或涨0.25%

    • 0.30%-0.35% → 持平或涨0.75%

    • 0.25%-0.30% → 涨0.75%-1.2%

    • <0.25% → 涨1.5%-2%

市场预计CPI公布当日美股波动幅度将达0.70%,波动率指数VIX目前仅15.8,处于低位。

黄金市场分析

  • 利多情景:数据低于预期 → 降息押注升温 → 金价有望反攻。

  • 利空情景:数据高于预期 → 美元及美债收益率走高 → 金价或跌破3340美元,甚至下探3300美元。

  • 关键支撑位:3343 / 3315 / 3300

  • 关键阻力位:3360 / 3380 / 3400

 

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