
美国10年期公债殖利率攀升,推升美元指数强弹逼近93,短短一个月升值3%,但瑞银认为,在美国积极纾困振兴下,一旦疫情好转经济复苏后,美元恐怕再度由升转贬。
瑞银表示,美国10 年期国债收益率上周收于1.68%,投资者继续关注经济复苏与通膨风险,其中美国总统拜登31 日将公布第一阶段期基建投资计划,4 月2 日即将发布的3 月份就业数据,市场预期,非农就业人口可能出现强劲反弹。
自美国10年期公债收益率攀升以来,带动美元指数从2月下旬的90攀升至93,一个多月内涨达3%,导致非美货币持续走弱,其中欧元汇价在1.18美元下方,英镑上周曾经跌破1.37美元,今天则触及1.3787美元,而日元汇价更触及109.8。
瑞跟银指出,当美国市场利率逐渐走强,将有利新兴市场货币走势,但要注意的是,全球目前疫情还充满不确定性,美国10年期公债收益率处于高点,加上股市及油价也走弱,进而支撑美元升值。

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