
华尔街一致看涨:目标价最高冲到 1400 美元
英伟达(Nvidia,NASDAQ: NVDA)将在本月公布财报,多家投行上调目标价。Rosenblatt给出最高目标价1400美元,美国银行将目标价调升至1320美元,摩根士丹利、瑞穗等机构也纷纷看高。市场普遍预测第二季度营收为458亿美元,每股收益为1美元,部分机构预计更高。
AI 投资热潮推动 GPU 需求爆发
Cantor Fitzgerald分析师C.J. Muse指出,主权基金和超大规模企业的资本支出推动了GPU需求,远超市场预期。瑞穗预计科技巨头资本支出占比已升至54%,大幅高于去年的38%。这也解释了为何英伟达能连续三个季度实现营收同比增长超200%。
中国市场变量:限制放松与潜在增量
随着美国政府放松部分芯片出口禁令,英伟达与AMD需缴纳15%销售额分成,但中国需求可能成为新的增长引擎。瑞穗预计,到2026年,两家厂商在中国的GPU出货量或将增加30万至50万个。分析师普遍认为,这一市场变化将显著影响未来营收。
Blackwell 架构接棒,H100/H200 供不应求
目前H100/H200 GPU仍处于紧缺状态,英伟达新一代Blackwell架构预计将在下半年带来新的业绩支撑。黄仁勋强调,客户无需等待Blackwell,Hopper依旧需求强劲,过渡过程“无缝衔接”。美国银行分析师预计英伟达将在未来数年保持80%以上的市场份额。
投资者情绪:AI“卖铲人”的长期红利
英伟达在AI芯片市场占据90%以上份额,虽然AMD、英特尔和云厂商加大投入,但华尔街普遍认为英伟达仍是最大的赢家。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives直言:“人工智能派对才刚刚开始,而英伟达已经端上了爆米花。”

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