
近年来,我国在岸和离岸人民币市场保持健康平稳发展,市场广度和深度不断拓展,人民币国际化水平持续提升。在“沪港通”“深港通”“沪伦通”等一系列制度推动下,在岸离岸人民币双向流通机制不断完善,人民币资产全球配置和市场联动趋势明显增强,人民币汇率全球定价机制正逐步形成。
国际清算银行(BIS)发布的最新调查显示,全球交易最活跃货币中人民币排名第八,在新兴市场国家货币中排名第一。离岸市场对人民币国际化及其汇率全球定价机制的形成均具有重要作用。目前,离岸人民币资产存量不断增加、离岸人民币即期和衍生品交易日益活跃、境外市场主体快速壮大,客观上已使离岸市场成为人民币市场的重要组成部分,对人民币定价效率提升、国内金融市场稳定、更高水平改革开放具有重大影响。
该工作论文称,深入研究人民币在岸与离岸市场之间的关系,特别是在岸汇率与离岸汇率之间相互影响的复杂机制,有利于理解人民币国际化推进和“双循环”新发展格局形成背景下人民币汇率全球定价机制形成的新格局,从而有针对性地制定稳定人民币市场价格、引导跨境人民币资金合理流动、提升人民币定价效率的政策措施。
文章称,最终研究结论一方面反映了“8·11”汇改后人民币在岸汇率对离岸汇率的传导作用大幅提升,在岸人民币汇率的定价权进一步增强,两者的联动效应更加显著,人民币汇率全球定价机制逐步成熟;另一方面显示出人民币期货等外汇衍生品具有一定价格引导作用,各类在岸和离岸人民币汇率相互影响,可能进一步促进人民币在全球市场的合理均衡发展。
该工作论文称,考虑到人民币期货市场发展对人民币汇率价格的合理形成、掌握人民币汇率定价权和促进人民币国际化具有重要作用,在当前人民币在岸市场与离岸市场日益均衡发展、境内外各类市场主体逐渐形成人民币汇率双向波动预期的背景下,建议进一步探索构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际“双循环”相互促进的新发展格局下的人民币汇率全球定价形成机制:一是不断完善人民币在岸市场的定价机制,研究各类汇率衍生品对汇率形成作用,适时建立人民币汇率期货市场,或引导境内相关主体有效利用离岸期货市场规避汇率风险;二是加强对全球人民币流动、资产配置和价格变动的监测,健全人民币汇率风险的宏观审慎管理体系,稳步推进人民币国际化。

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