
市场概述:周五(4月2日)欧市盘中,全球市场因耶稣受难日假期休市。消息面来看,美国公布了最新的非农就业报告,3月非农就业人口暴增91.6万,为去年8月以来最大增幅;3月失业率降至6.0%。美元指数(92.3271, 0.0051, 0.01%)冲上93关口,欧元(1.1872, 0.0000, 0.00%)、英镑(1.3820, -0.0002, -0.01%)等回落……
消息面来看,根据FX168早前报道,美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,预期增长65万,前值修正为增长46.8万;3月失业率降至6.0%,预期6.0%,前值6.2%。
针对3月非农就业数据,美国劳工统计局称,3月份就业普遍增长,休闲和酒店、公立和私立教育以及建筑业就业增长最快。2月份非农新增就业人数从37.9万人上修至46.8万人;1月份非农新增就业人数从16.6万人上修至23.3万人。
今天报告还显示,美国3月私营部门就业人数增长了78万,预期为增长64.3万,上个月为58.5万。美国劳动力参与率,也从上个月的61.4%上升至61.5%,与预期相同。并且,临时裁员的失业人数再度下降,从222.9万下降至202.6万。
此外,美国3月平均时薪环比下降-0.1%,低于0.1%的预期,也低于上个月的0.3%,平均时薪同比增长4.2%,也低于4.5%的预期,以及上个月的5.2%。
综合媒体报道,经济学家预计,第二和第三季度的就业增长平均每月至少为70万,再加上财政刺激措施以及疫情期间家庭积累的约19万亿美元的超额储蓄以及疫苗接种率的提升,预计将释放出一股强大的被压抑的需求浪潮。
CNBC称,股市快速上涨加上政府前所未有的刺激力度引发了市场对通胀的担忧,不过美联储官员表示,任何通胀上升都将是暂时的。美联储正密切关注就业数据,但货币政策委员会一再表示,即使就业市场最近有所改善,但仍远未达到促使美联储升息的程度。
美国劳工部长:今天的就业报告数据“非常令人鼓舞”,报告数据不错,但这仅仅是一个月的表现,还有很长的路要走。基础设施法案将重新振兴劳动力和经济。
数据之后,汇市一度震荡,随后美元冲高至93关口上方,最高93.08;欧元/美元最低跌至.1748;英镑/美元或回撤至1.38关口……美债收益率暴动:美国十年期国债收益率涨至1.72%,刷新日高。5年期国债收益率升至0.962%,续刷去年2月以来新高。
FXStreet分析师Piovano称,欧元处于守势,令欧元兑美元回落至1.17区间中部。此前该货币对已连续反弹两天,不过在冲击1.18关口前失去动能,表明反弹缺乏可持续性,可能重启跌势。非农数据超过预期,美元买盘回升,令欧美承压。
美元近期持续的看涨偏好削弱了该货币对的走高预期。不过,欧洲央行的坚定态度以及疫情后的经济复苏预期可能会防止该货币对长期大幅走低。
日内焦点、风向标:
美国非农就业报告
主要货币走势分析:
欧元:周五欧市盘中,欧元/美元持续下跌,技术面,欧元/美元卖方仍控制着走势,使其很容易再次触及今年以来的低点1.1700左右。在1.1700下方,直到2020年11月的低点1.1600,都没有相关的支撑位。
英镑:周五欧市盘中,英镑/美元震荡回落,技术面,英镑/美元日收盘价必须高于下跌趋势线阻力位1.3843,才能证实上行突破。短期支撑位预计在1.3800,跌破则可能再次测试周四低点1.3745。
日元:周五欧市盘中,美元/日元窄幅震荡,技术面,美元/日元在周末之前不太可能在任何一个方向上做出决定性的举动。

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