由清华大学五道口金融学院主办，京东科技集团联合主办，清华大学国家金融研究院国际金融与经济研究中心（CIFER）和金融与发展研究中心（CFD）承办的清华五道口首席经济学家论坛于4月10日召开，主题为“2021年全球经济与政策展望”。天风证券(5.040, -0.03, -0.59%)首席宏观分析师宋雪涛出席并发表演讲。
宋雪涛表示，今年年初经济在环比上出现了一些回落，但是，目前预计从环比来看二季度会有回升，如果把季节性因素去除掉的话，一季度季调环比大概在1%附近，二季度应该回到1.3-1.4%，下半年整个经济基调环比会向下，上半年还是复苏末尾，整个复苏顶位会呈现“双头顶”，整个高点在去年四季度已经出现。
关于今年中国GDP的预测，宋雪涛指出，增速目前在不断修正，最新一期模型预测今年GDP增速大概8.6%，名义增速有11.5%，疫情之后潜在增速中枢会有回落，疫情前6%左右，疫情后5-6%之间，去年2.3%实际增速，今年在7.7-9.7%之间就算正常，大多数预测8-10%之间，对今年中国经济相对来说比较乐观的。
对于大宗商品，宋雪涛认为下半年供求错配会有所缓和，具体品种上情况会不太一样，有色可能受供给的不足影响更大，黑色特别是国内定价部分有一些碳中和因素，原油还是需求不足，因为供给端有垄断定价组织，对页岩油生产弹性非常敏感，农产品(5.870, 0.03, 0.51%)更多来自天气包括疫情对生产、收割、运输的影响，所以，逻辑相对独立。整体上来说，看具体的商品品种，大宗超级周期应该是不存在的，这就是我对这些问题的看法。
关于人民币的走势，宋雪涛认为随着全球经济修复差异在逐渐收窄，长期如果看中美利差或者看贵金属隐含的人民币汇率和实际汇率差异，人民币还是有一定升值空间，人民币汇率现在到了自由度比较大的位置，正好在6.5%附近，到6.6%左右的水平，没有明确方向，美元的反弹一定程度来自于欧洲疫情第三次爆发，随着非美经济体经济的修复，美国大概率还会再走贬，人民币对一揽子货币比较稳定。
新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。
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