由清华大学五道口金融学院主办，京东科技集团联合主办，清华大学国家金融研究院国际金融与经济研究中心（CIFER）和金融与发展研究中心（CFD）承办的清华五道口首席经济学家论坛于4月10日召开，主题为“2021年全球经济与政策展望”。天风证券(5.040, -0.03, -0.59%)首席宏观分析师宋雪涛出席并发表演讲。
宋雪涛表示，今年年初经济在环比上出现了一些回落，但是，目前预计从环比来看二季度会有回升，如果把季节性因素去除掉的话，一季度季调环比大概在1%附近，二季度应该回到1.3-1.4%，下半年整个经济基调环比会向下，上半年还是复苏末尾，整个复苏顶位会呈现“双头顶”，整个高点在去年四季度已经出现。
关于今年中国GDP的预测，宋雪涛指出，增速目前在不断修正，最新一期模型预测今年GDP增速大概8.6%，名义增速有11.5%，疫情之后潜在增速中枢会有回落，疫情前6%左右，疫情后5-6%之间，去年2.3%实际增速，今年在7.7-9.7%之间就算正常，大多数预测8-10%之间，对今年中国经济相对来说比较乐观的。
对于大宗商品，宋雪涛认为下半年供求错配会有所缓和，具体品种上情况会不太一样，有色可能受供给的不足影响更大，黑色特别是国内定价部分有一些碳中和因素，原油还是需求不足，因为供给端有垄断定价组织，对页岩油生产弹性非常敏感，农产品(5.870, 0.03, 0.51%)更多来自天气包括疫情对生产、收割、运输的影响，所以，逻辑相对独立。整体上来说，看具体的商品品种，大宗超级周期应该是不存在的，这就是我对这些问题的看法。
关于人民币的走势，宋雪涛认为随着全球经济修复差异在逐渐收窄，长期如果看中美利差或者看贵金属隐含的人民币汇率和实际汇率差异，人民币还是有一定升值空间，人民币汇率现在到了自由度比较大的位置，正好在6.5%附近，到6.6%左右的水平，没有明确方向，美元的反弹一定程度来自于欧洲疫情第三次爆发，随着非美经济体经济的修复，美国大概率还会再走贬，人民币对一揽子货币比较稳定。
新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。
文章评论
clomiphene 50mg oral <a href="https://azatophene.com/">purchase clomiphene online cheap</a> order imuran 25mg pills
cialis otc <a href="https://setcillis.com/ ">how many milligrams of cialis should i take</a> tadalafil 5mg daily
buy serophene pills <a href="https://azatophene.com/">generic clomiphene</a> imuran 50mg sale
purchase cialis online <a href="https://applyciliis.com/ ">cialis no prescriotion</a> cialis south africa
tadalafil cost walmart <a href="https://youcillis.com/ ">tadalafil treatment for painful erection</a> tadalafil (generic cialis)
generic sildenafil 20mg cost <a href="https://domviagrix.com/ ">viagra over the counter cost</a> price of sildenafil in india
viagra usa online <a href="https://reviagrixs.com/ ">viagra over the counter in us</a> how can i get viagra pills
buy medrol online cheap <a href="https://arisceon.com/">generic aristocort</a> aristocort cost
buy methylprednisolone cheap <a href="https://medipirol.shop/">generic nifedipine</a> triamcinolone 4mg uk
levitra 10mg cheap <a href="https://lanoedra.shop/">oral lanoxin</a> tizanidine us
buy levitra generic <a href="https://lanoedra.com/">buy vardenafil pill</a> order tizanidine 2mg pills
generic viagra professional 100mg <a href="https://siteviagrix.com/ ">sildenafil 50 mg tablet cost</a> order generic viagra online
best essay for you <a href="https://writeessaybizplan.com/ ">character analysis essay example</a> what is essay
cheap phenytoin 100mg <a href="https://cycopan.com/">cost flexeril 15mg</a> oxytrol for sale online
how to write a reflective essay <a href="https://essayusserv.com/ ">character analysis essay</a> college essay helper
buy generic dilantin <a href="https://cycopan.shop/">purchase ditropan sale</a> ditropan 2.5mg sale
essay writing services recommendations <a href="https://essayservok.com/ ">argumentative essay helper</a> a hook for an essay
costco college essay <a href="https://essayzuzi.com/ ">help on essay writing</a> synthesis essay outline
buy coversum generic <a href="https://arisceon.shop/">purchase coversyl online cheap</a> order fexofenadine 180mg generic
buy coversyl for sale <a href="https://claegra.shop/">buy generic allegra</a> order allegra 120mg without prescription
how to create an outline for an essay <a href="https://essaywriteee.com/ ">how to end an argumentative essay</a> what does essay mean in spanish
lioresal tablet <a href="https://bactyline.com/">ozobax price</a> where to buy toradol without a prescription
buy lioresal online cheap <a href="https://bactyline.shop/">buy endep sale</a> order toradol for sale
reflective essay help <a href="https://usessayservwrite.com/ ">best essay writing service online</a> custom english essays
help with essay <a href="https://writeessaybizplan.com/ ">write an essay about yourself</a> essay on man
cheap essay writing services <a href="https://essayusserv.com/ ">buy essay writing</a> what is a rhetorical analysis essay
claritin online <a href="https://loraitace.shop/">ramipril 10mg usa</a> priligy 60mg without prescription
claritin price <a href="https://loraitace.shop/">altace 10mg cheap</a> buy dapoxetine 60mg pill
pharm <a href="https://farmcomborx.com/ ">rx one pharmacy llc</a> egypt pharmacy viagra
overseas pharmacy oxycodone <a href="https://clabrxsocial.com/ ">indian pharmacy soma</a> uk pharmacy online
where to buy baclofen without a prescription <a href="https://alenolac.com/">purchase toradol generic</a> ketorolac uk
caring pharmacy online store <a href="https://rxsocialus.com/ ">Fosamax</a> express scripts pharmacy
baclofen 25mg tablet <a href="https://bactyline.com/">cost baclofen</a> buy cheap generic toradol
india pharmacy xanax <a href="https://phrinus.com/ ">oxycodone prices pharmacy</a> pharmacy store hours
boots pharmacy propecia <a href="https://phrguru.com/ ">tramadol- pharmacy</a> pioneer rx pharmacy software
discount pharmacy online <a href="https://bizfarmrx.com/ ">publix pharmacy lisinopril</a> viagra target pharmacy
fosamax 70mg pills <a href="https://alenolac.shop/">how to get fosamax without a prescription</a> order macrodantin generic
fosamax sale <a href="https://alenolac.shop/">order alendronate pills</a> macrodantin 100 mg ca
inderal 20mg uk <a href="https://propofen.com/">buy inderal cheap</a> brand clopidogrel
buy inderal 10mg for sale <a href="https://propofen.com/">order inderal 10mg online</a> brand plavix 150mg
complete online pharmacy <a href="https://farmcomborx.com/ ">atarax online pharmacy</a> Tegretol
magellan rx pharmacy network <a href="https://clabrxsocial.com/ ">Sporanox</a> online pharmacy concerta
nortriptyline brand <a href="https://meloceto.com/">brand methotrexate 2.5mg</a> buy anacin without a prescription
buy nortriptyline online cheap <a href="https://meloceto.com/">order methotrexate 5mg online cheap</a> anacin 500mg us
glimepiride 4mg usa <a href="https://daporide.shop/">amaryl 1mg pill</a> buy generic arcoxia over the counter
tadalafil fj3 <a href="https://ztadalafiluus.com/ ">where to buy tadalafil online</a> tadalafil 5mg everyday
buy amaryl 1mg <a href="https://arcotecgn.com/">cytotec where to buy</a> order etoricoxib 60mg pills
tadalafil weight gain <a href="https://tadalatada.com/ ">tadalafil sports performance</a> liquid tadalafil dosage
tadalafil side effects leg pain <a href="https://tadalafile.com/ ">tadalafil/oxytocin</a> kaiser pharmacy tadalafil 10mg price
tadalafil after prostate surgery <a href="https://tadalike.com/ ">tadalafil 5mg cost</a> tadalafil 20mg tablets