美元超级扩张周期下 美联储将成美债唯一实质性买家

2021年04月19日 27389点热度 0人点赞 4,827条评论

4月17日,“2021清华五道口金融赋能科技创新论坛”在上海国际会议中心举办。

中国社会科学院经济研究所教授、中国首席经济学家论坛30人成员刘煜辉作了主题为“美元超级扩张周期下的两极世界”的演讲。

谈到美国国债,刘煜辉表示,今天巨量的美债最后只有一个实质性的买家,那就是美联储自己。来自西方宪政制度层面的约束几乎完全消失,完全靠美元回流之类的市场机制来平衡,无疑给未来埋下了巨大的波动性隐患。超级美元扩张周期下,“高货币、低利率、高波动 ”不可避免。

刘煜辉进一步提出,中国将会进行真正实质性的发展模式转型。金融周期的见顶回落以及信用的收紧都是我们今年面临的大环境。科技将是影响未来的重要机会点。

刘煜辉还谈到了人民币(6.52900.00840.13%)升值背后的“远”和“近”。刘煜辉认为,从远程来看,人民币长程开启升值通道。他解释称,“2035年远景目标”提出,到2035年我国人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。也就是说,2035年中国要达到人均国内生产总值2.4万美元的目标。从现在的人均1万美元到15年后2.4万美元,按自然增长率来算,这15年每年复利为5%~6%。要想达到这一目标,其中一部分还是要靠汇率的升值。

此外,刘煜辉认为,从近程来看,人民币名义汇率与真实汇率之间的“巴萨裂口”,增加克服通货膨胀的工作压力。

“通货膨胀对应的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型,就是名义汇率和真实汇率之间的巴萨裂口,裂口没有收敛,没收敛的情况下还要张大,增加短期的通货膨胀压力。

美元超级扩张周期下 美联储将成美债唯一实质性买家

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    You might decide to abstain from drugs, but your system could still have signs of weed for a few days. So, can you detox in time so you do not end up losing your job? There are several myths and terrible advice you will find on the internet. But, there are also genuine detoxification methods that actually work.
    Millions of employees are trying to learn how to pass a drug test for weed. Both private and government jobs may require employees to be clean from drugs. Sometimes, a drug test is a requirement to comply with state or federal laws, and other times it is the nature of the job that the employer can only hire those who are sober.
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    Whether you are looking for a new job or have been asked to take a post-employment drug test, you must start by learning about the different drug tests used by employers. Here is how to pass a drug test for weed.
    At a Glance: Top 4 Best THC Detox Methods
    Detox Drinks – Overall Best Detox Method To Detect Weed
    Detox Pills – Most Convenient Method To Pass Drug Tests
    Hair Shampoos – Effective Weed Detoxification for Hair Follicles
    Mouthwash – Best THC Detox Method to Flush Out Toxins from Mouth
    #1. Detox Drinks – Overall Best Detox Method To Detect Weed
    Most people use detox drinks to avoid testing positive for a random drug test, pre- or post-employment. If you have plenty of time before the test, there are other options like quitting smoking, substituting urine, etc. But if you only have hours to spare, detox drinks are your only viable option.
    These work by stimulating the body’s natural detoxification process. A detox drink may help create a window in which you will test clean. Your drug test may come up negative for any trace of weed even if you just smoked it hours before.
    These are the best when you want to flush weed out of your system pretty fast in case of a random drug test. Your boss probably will not inform you about the drug test until it is too late to prepare a plan to get clean.
    However, you cannot use just any detox drink, as some may strip urine of the indicators that testers use to identify that a sample is genuine. Labs typically reject a urine sample if it does not have the proper color, correct temperature, and necessary creatinine level.
    In addition to a detox drink, you must increase your fluid intake and consume only light meals until the test. Also, urinate frequently to flush out the toxic substances on the day of the drug test. You must avoid alcoholic beverages and any over-the-counter drugs during this period.
    => Click here to visit the official website of Detox Drinks
    #2. Detox Pills – Most Convenient Method To Pass Drug Tests
    You are quite fortunate if you have a few days before the drug test to follow a detox program. Detox pills are taken as a part of a detox program, and these may help permanently eliminate any remains of THC from your body.
    These pills make it easier to get results faster and get clean for an impending drug test.
    How Does a Detox Program Work?
    In addition to taking detox tablets for several days, you can also follow a healthy meal plan that includes fresh veggies and fruits for the best results. Consumption and frequency will depend on the amount of toxin in your body. If you have been ingesting or eating weed, you will need a longer detoxification plan to get it out of your system.
    If you know about the drug test a few days in advance, using detox pills as part of your detox program should be your best strategy for passing.
    => Click here to visit the official website of Detox Pills
    #3. Hair Shampoos for Follicle Test – Effective Weed Detoxification For Hair Follicles
    You cannot discount the possibility of a drug test using a hair follicle. It is always best to be prepared than risk losing your job. Fortunately, there are shampoos that help remove hair contaminants, so the drug test may not find traces of weed in your hair.
    Most of those giving a drug test ignore the possibility of a hair test, and remnants of weed can stay in your hair follicles for up to 90 days. This can be a cause of concern if you are only relying on a detox drink to pass the urine drug test. When they request a hair sample, you find yourself unprepared.
    The best way to use a toxin cleansing shampoo would be to start three to ten days in advance and use it along with your usual shampoo and conditioner. If you do not have enough days before the test, you can take several showers a day for proper cleansing of your scalp. You must make sure the shampoo stays lathered in your hair for about 15 minutes before you wash it.
    A minimum of 15 washes is recommended before taking the test to ensure you will come out clean.
    => Click here to visit the official website of Detox Shampoo
    #4. Mouthwash for a Swab Test – Best THC Detox Method To Flush Out Toxins From Mouth
    Saliva tests often hit you when you are totally unprepared, and a mouthwash can be a handy solution. A variety of jobs may require you to give saliva tests pre- or post-employment, at any sudden moment. When other detox methods may not work, a mouthwash comes to your rescue.
    => Click here to visit the official website of Mouthwash
    #5. Home Remedies
    Home remedies for detoxification work best when you have several days to flush THC out of your system. However, if you have to beat a drug test coming up in the next few days, same-day detox drinks are your best bet.
    People choose home solutions for THC detox in various circumstances, and they are an affordable and convenient way to cleanse your body.
    Natural home remedies might not work fast enough to ensure negative results on your drug test. But ,several people use these for health benefits and to take a step in the direction of getting over their drug addictions. Here are the best home remedies to help flush out weed from your body.
    Lemon Juice
    This is one of the classic recipes used for detoxification. Take 8 to 16 ounces of water in a cup, and then squeeze half of a lemon into it. This drink may help flush your system out and prepare you for a drug test or simply help live a healthy life.
    Besides being an effective detox, it is easier to drink more water when you add lemon to it. Frequent urination by drinking more water may help flush out more THC toxins from your body.
    Cranberry Juice
    This is a great natural detox drink to help you pass your drug test. You can drink cranberry juice with plenty of water or with an electrolytic drink so you can urinate often and flush out your system. To retain the right color of your urine, you can take this juice with B-vitamin pills.
    Coffee
    Another natural drink to help get rid of weed in your system is coffee. It is a natural diuretic, so you will feel the urge to pee more often and therefore flush everything out. But, remember to take B-vitamin pills a few days before the test, as this will ensure your urine sample will not be rejected by the lab.
    #6. Apple Cider Vinegar – Perfect Beverage for Your Detox Program
    Apple cider vinegar is a beverage worth adding to your detox program. It is known for multiple health benefits including weight control and boosting immunity.
    Consuming it as a part of your detox should help eliminate toxins while also supporting your overall health. But, make sure that you use raw, unfiltered, ACV, which has “the mother” in it. “The mother” is made of acetic acid, bacteria, and cellulose. It is necessary to get the desired effects from apple cider vinegar.
    But, do not consume too much of this beverage with the hope of quick results. Two tablespoons per day taken with water should be adequate for your detox plan. Overconsumption of ACV can weaken your tooth enamel and also cause nausea.
    How Long Will THC Remain in Your Body?
    The time needed to rid the body of THC will vary from person to person, and it will depend on the following factors:
    Metabolism
    People with a high metabolism will find that marijuana exits them faster and they will be prepared for the drug test soon after they discontinue its use. Metabolism depends on age, physical activity, and some health conditions.
    Body Mass (BMI)
    Those who are overweight will find that it takes longer for them to eliminate THC from their system. THC metabolites are stored in the fat cells, so people with higher body fat take longer to get rid of marijuana from their body.
    Amount of Consumption
    Heavy drug users will have a greater concentration of THC in their system and will need longer to flush out their system of weed remnants.
    Gender
    Women have a slower metabolic rate due to higher levels of body fat. Therefore, traces of weed last longer in a woman’s body compared to that of a man. If you are a woman, the sooner you begin your THC detox, the better chances you will have of retaining your job.
    Smoking vs. Vaping vs. Edibles
    The time duration for THC staying in your body will also depend on what form you take it. Detection time for smoking marijuana use is the shortest, and traces of weed will leave your body sooner if you are a smoker. However, ingesting or eating marijuana will cause THC levels to stay higher for a longer time.
    Commonly Used Drug Tests
    Even when the effects of smoking or consuming marijuana are gone, chemical remnants called metabolites are still present in your body. These can be detected in a drug test from saliva, blood, urine, hair, and fingernails.
    Urine Test
    There is a high chance that your employer will ask you to take the urine test for drugs. It is one of the cheapest and most convenient drug tests and is therefore the most common drug test used by employers.
    Moderate drug users may fail a urine test one to three weeks after their last consumption, and a heavy user can test positive for 30 to 45 days. Even if you only smoke weed once or twice a week, results can still show up positive for up to three days.
    When you reach the lab for the drug test, you will be asked to leave your belongings in another room. They will instruct you to go to the bathroom to collect your urine sample in a specimen cup.
    A sample collected from home will not be accepted. If it is collected hours before, it will not be the right temperature. So, if you are thinking about swapping urine, it will probably not work. However, people use synthetic urine to fake drug test results.
    Blood Test
    Blood tests have a pretty small window to detect THC in your system. But, it is detectable in the bloodstream within seconds of use. So, roadside urine tests for drivers might use blood samples to look for traces of marijuana in the body.
    It will also depend on the dose and how long it will stay in the system. This test is appropriate in those situations when the suspect is still under the influence of drugs. If a person has a high metabolism, it will be eliminated from the body pretty soon. Heavy smokers can test positive for a longer duration compared to those that take just a few puffs occasionally.
    Hair Test
    For daily users, hair tests can detect weed for up to 90 days. Trace amounts of weed reach the hair follicles via small blood vessels and can therefore be detected. However, these tests are difficult to perform and can be unreliable at times.
    This is why hair tests are rare. They may also take up to a week for the traces of THC to show up. However, if you are looking for a new job, start your detox as soon as possible, as a hair test can pick up the use of weed even after a few months of the last use.
    Saliva Test
    Saliva tests or mouth swabs tests are more common with traffic law enforcement to test if a driver is operating a vehicle under the influence. This is because saliva tests are accurate only for recent use and cannot detect THC used some time ago.
    These tests are sometimes used as an alternative to urine drug tests, and the reason is that these are easier to administer and can be supervised while you collect the samples. Mouth swab tests are growing in popularity because they cannot be tampered with.
    Which Drug Test Should I Expect?
    There is no sure way of knowing what kind of drug test your employer will administer. The urine test is the most common method due to its low cost and convenience. But, government agencies and larger companies still stick to the blood test.
    The hair testing method is still on the rise, as it can detect drug use even months in the past. Some government agencies have also started using hair tests to detect drug use up to a few months back. In contrast, saliva tests are more common for roadside testing.
    Other Solutions When Detox Is Not an Option
    At-Home Drug Tests
    You might not have time for a detox program, but you can at least use a drug test kit to see if there is any THC left in your system. If the drug test is scheduled too soon for you to detox, a urine testing kit will help you determine the presence of THC or cannabis in your system.
    It will detect the metabolites found in your urine, and it takes just about five minutes to give the result.
    You can interpret the test results by noticing the lines on the kit. Two lines means that the result is negative. If you see a single line on the control region, this means you are positive and traces of weed are still present in your body. In this case, you must start taking detox drinks immediately.
    No lines would mean that you need to take a re-test, and you will need to use a new kit in this case. Seeing no lines implies that there has been an error during the testing procedure.
    Cheat the Drug Test with Fake Pee
    If there is nothing else you can do and the drug test is staring right at you, maybe you should consider faking it. Yes, it is probably the right time to ask someone to lend their uncontaminated pee to you so you can pass the test.
    However, if that sounds too gross and not feasible, the other option is to use a synthetic urine kit. This might also sound disgusting, but when your career is on the line, synthetic urine might be the only chance to beat the test.
    However, you cannot rely on this since you never know when you will be asked to produce fresh urine samples. The right temperature is also important, or your sample could be rejected.
    How Long Should I Abstain from Weed to Pass the Test?
    As mentioned above, each type of test can detect THC for different periods of time. But, if you have yet to apply for a job and are thinking of preparing for the test by abstaining from weed consumption, you should start it at least 30 days prior to taking the test.
    A detox plan may help you eliminate weed faster, but if you are solely relying on abstaining, you should allow at least a month to rid your system of THC. A chronic stoner might struggle with this, but this is the best way to put your system in the clear zone naturally.
    Regular smokers will need a minimum abstinence of 30 days, but occasional smokers can prepare themselves for drug tests by staying away from drug screens for just ten days. But, the only way to be completely sure that you have rid yourself of weed is to use a self-test kit to gauge your progress.
    What to Expect During the Drug Test
    The drug test is commonly set up at your workplace or in a medical clinic. You will be given all the instructions on how to take the test. A single-stall bathroom is the preferred site for a urine test, and someone of the same gender might monitor while you provide the sample.
    The technician might take additional precautions to ensure the sample is not tampered with. Some precautions you can expect them to take include:
    Removing soap from the site
    Carrying out a site inspection prior to sample collection
    Measuring the temperature of the urine sample
    Putting blue dye in the tank or toilet bowl
    Securing sources of water in the bathroom
    FAQs: How To Pass A Drug Test For Weed
    Q1. Which is the best detox method for a drug test?
    The best way to prepare yourself for a drug test is to follow a detox program that includes multiple methods to flush out traces of the drug from your body. Start drinking plenty of water and take detox drinks or pills to quickly eliminate THC from your system. Also, the more often you pee, the faster this will work.
    Following a healthy routine and diet plan may also aid the detoxification process. The sooner you start a detox program, the earlier you can be prepared and assured of testing negative. If you are unsure how to pass a drug test for weed, you should consider consuming a potent detox drink to flush out toxins from your system.
    Q2. How is THC stored in the body?
    You might wonder how the traces of THC can still be present in your body long after the effects of weed are gone. The THC hides in your fat cells and takes a long time to be metabolized. THC may take even longer to be eliminated in overweight people.
    Over 80 types of metabolites are formed from THC, and these are stored in the fat until eliminated through feces and urine.
    Q3. How fast do detox pills work?
    While some pills can get you cleaned in an hour and would create a window of up to six hours where you will test negative for THC, a complete detox program involving these pills should continue for about ten days to completely flush out the traces of the drug.
    Most detox pills claim to permanently cleanse your system in seven days. Some pills, however, claim to create a small window of a few hours before your test will come up negative. You can take these pills within one to two hours to have the desired effect.
    Q4. Does alcohol detox THC?
    It might sound convenient to you, but it can make things worse. Alcohol will, in fact, boost THC levels in your body. Therefore, it is not recommended to drink alcohol while you are detoxing.
    Instead, you should go with proven detox methods like lemon juice, detox pills, healthy diet, abstinence, etc., rather than experiment with other things that might increase THC in your body and make it harder to pass the drug test.
    Q5. How does the THC leave your body?
    When THC has been successfully metabolized and passed into the bloodstream, it is transported to the bowels, kidneys, and skin to leave your body. 60% of it will leave as feces, while the rest will leave as urine and sweat.
    Metabolism of THC begins in the liver and is converted into metabolites (11-OH-THC, and THCCOOH). The same enzyme that works on alcohol is used in this process. Whether you ingest or inhale THC, your metabolism works the same way.
    11-OH-THC is predominantly excreted through faeces while THCCOOH is mostly passed through urine.
    Q6. Will exercise help my detox program?
    THC is stored in lipid tissues, so when you exercise and burn fat, it helps the detox process in your body. Exercise promotes the release of toxins from fats. Once these find their way into your kidneys, they are filtered out and sent to the bladder, where the THC metabolites are excreted through urine.
    Sweating also helps remove toxins, and it makes exercise an effective way to aid your detox program. So, working out while following a detox program may help increase your chance of testing negative for THC when the date of the drug test arrives.
    Q7. What is a 10-panel drug test?
    A 10-panel drug test is administered in professions that entail dangerous work or when the employee is responsible for the safety of others. The test typically looks for marijuana, cocaine, opiates, benzodiazepines, barbiturates, methadone, PCP, amphetamines, propoxyphene, and Quaaludes. The people who are typically asked to take this test are:
    Medical professionals
    State, federal, or local government employees
    Law enforcement officials
    A 5-day detox program is recommended to prepare for a 10-panel drug test. You can use detox pills and drinks to speed up the process, and a healthy diet and routine would also contribute to flushing out THC from your system.
    Q8. What happens if the test turns out to be inconclusive or invalid?
    It is not uncommon for the test to turn out inconclusive. This could be due to several reasons. If you have been using a home detox drink, it may cause the urine to be stripped of important indicators that the testers look for. An error in the testing procedure can also be responsible for the test results being inconclusive.
    You will be asked to take a retest if the report of a drug test comes inconclusive or if it is considered invalid due to the sample not being in the correct state.
    If you are following a detox program that includes taking a detox drink, take B-vitamin pills so the urine sample is of the right color and does not make the test technician suspicious. Also, the urine should be the right temperature or the technician will ask you to produce another fresh sample.
    Q9. How do you prepare for a hair test?
    Imagine purchasing synthetic urine for your upcoming drug test and finding out that it will be your hair that will give away the weed that you smoked just a few days back. There is a way to prevent that. You can use a hair detox shampoo that will cleanse your hair follicles deeply to eliminate traces of THC.
    It is always best to cover every front rather than risk your job for that occasional puff of weed. Including a hair detox shampoo in your detox program will further improve your chances of passing the drug test. But, you will need several washes for the drug traces to fade away from your scalp.
    If you have limited time until the drug test, you can take multiple showers every day to speed up the cleansing process. You can continue using your normal shampoo along with a special detox shampoo.
    Q10. Can you rely on detox methods to pass a drug test?
    Detoxing is a process that might take some time. The longer you have, the better your chances are to come clean for drugs. Not everyone gets enough time to follow through the detox process completely. There are a variety of ways to speed up your detox process. Some take more time, while others may help create a small window where you will test negative.
    A natural cleanse will help eliminate THC from your system, but it takes more than a month to work.
    Detox pills may produce quick and effective results, but you will need at least a week for this method to flush out THC from your body.
    Detox drinks are the fastest way to temporarily remove THC and are best if you have the test on the same day.
    If detoxing is not an option, synthetic urine can help you avoid testing positive. But, it can be detected and is therefore quite risky.
    If you have plenty of time to detox at home, there are a number of home remedies to try like lemon juice, apple cider vinegar, etc.
    Q11. What will happen if I test positive on a drug test?
    Starting a detox program a few days before taking the drug test will reduce your chance of testing positive for THC. You can also get yourself a urine test kit to make sure the detox process is working for you. However, if you do not have sufficient time and if fake urine is not an option, you might test positive for drugs.
    There will probably be a re-test to confirm the results, and if you test positive again, you might be given a chance to explain your reasons for taking the drug. It should be an acceptable medical reason for you to avoid losing your job. The review officer will then share this with your employer.
    If the drug test is a part of the screening process for hiring, you will probably lose the opportunity and join the pool of unemployed. But, if you have been a long-term employee, there is a possibility that they might give you a chance to get clean from drugs and retake the test after some time.
    Conclusion: Safe Ways To Pass A Weed Drug Test In 2022:
    A drug test can catch you by surprise, especially if you have recently been using weed. The duration of THC staying in the body varies from person to person, and it is hard to predict if the drug test will find traces of weed in your body.
    If you are unsure, you can also take the self-drug test to find out for sure. If you want to start a THC detox program to flush out THC from your system, there are several ways you can do so.
    You never know what kind of drug test you might be asked to take. Some tests can detect drug use that was quite recent, while other tests work better at finding traces left by drug use many months back. Complete detoxification is your best bet if you have a few days to follow the program.
    But, there are also detox drinks that can give you instant results and create a small window where your urine sample will reveal no traces of THC. So, if your employer has just informed you of an imminent drug test, it is better to start detoxing than stress about it.
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