近一年时间，铁矿石价格持续上涨，从2020年5月份的80美元附近，涨至近期的160美元上方，几乎翻了一倍，周一（4月19日）新加坡铁矿石主力合约最高触及168.05美元/吨，为历史记录新高。
分析师指出，铁矿石的长期上涨行情被证明比许多人预期的要高得多，持续时间也更长。但是，随着本周将公布领先的铁矿石产量数据，如果数据超出预期，或者高管们警告说近期的涨幅不可持续，那么价格就有回落的风险。
尽管中国的海运供应量和港口库存不断增加，目前已达到两年来的最高水平，但铁矿石价格仍保持坚挺。中国的强劲需求（即使誓言削减钢铁产量）和中国以外的复苏也支撑着价格。工厂利润率提高，意味着用户有大量现金可用于投入。
但是，请注意一些潜在的陷阱。来自巴西的全国运输数据显示3月份的出货量猛增，这表明淡水河谷周一晚些时候将公布的数据会表现不错。必和必拓在周三可能会再次重申其最近的警告，即铁矿石可能回落至其长期趋势。总体而言，随着供应量的增加，全球市场仍在松动。
矿工产量报告的编制工作已经使市场观察者的情绪开始发生变化，并且有更大的回撤余地。瑞银（UBS）目前预计2021年将跌至每吨100美元以下（这意味着铁矿石距离当前价位要下跌逾40%）。尽管花旗认为变数比较大，但仍警告铁矿石面临“艰难的下坡路”。铁矿石的风险正在增加。
值得一提是，铁矿石在2020年12月和2021年3月份曾两次涨至167.50附近，但未能有效上破，目前虽然小幅上破，但很快回落，需要继续对167.50位置保持关注。如果强势站稳在167.50美元上方，则铁矿石有望打开新的上涨空间，进一步涨向200美元关口。反之，则需要提防铁矿石的见顶回落风险。
北京时间13：34，新加坡铁矿石主力合约现报167.30美元/吨。
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