欧元(1.2038, 0.0000, 0.00%)触及三月以来高点 高盛、瑞信纷纷上调预期，预计欧洲央行不会改变立场
FX168财经报社（北美）讯 在连续第二周收涨后，欧元/美元周一（4月19日）依然保持看多势头，并升至3月初以来的最高水平1.2048，之后进入盘整阶段。目前上涨0.45%，至1.20355。
欧盟统计局公布的数据显示，2月份建筑业产出下降了2.1%，而分析师的预测是增长0.2%，但并没有引起明显的市场反应。
与此同时，因美国国债收益率下跌而加剧的美元抛售在周一保持不变，美元指数(91.0902, -0.0030, -0.00%)跌至近七周以来的最低水平91.03。然而，随着基准的10年期美国国债收益率出现反弹，并随后上涨逾1%，美元指数跌幅有限。
本周晚些时候，市场将密切关注欧洲央行的政策声明。巴克莱研究（Barclays Research）讨论了对本周周四欧洲央行政策会议的预期。该行预计欧洲理事会不会改变其货币政策立场，将重申维持有利融资条件的决心，但不会就框架提供更多细节。量化宽松政策将在年底前宣布。因此，这次会议不会改变货币政策立场，也不会使政策框架更加清晰。
而瑞士信贷分析师认为，欧元/美元可能继续走高，日收盘价将突破1.2027，目标是3月高点和2021年下跌的61.8%斐波那额回撤位1.2103/13。如果回落至1.1992以下，然后明显跌破1.1950-46的支撑位，将迅速降低回落至1.1928-23，然后是1.1883。
高盛（Goldman Sachs）也上调了欧元/美元的预估，暗示近期内欧元将进一步升值。高盛将其三个月目标价从1.21调高至1.25，持稳其12个月预估为1.28。以全球外汇、利率和新兴市场策略联席主管扎克·潘德尔（Zach Pandl）为首的分析师还发布了新的欧元多头交易建议，目标价为1.25，止损价为1.175。他们表示：“在疫苗接种速度加快和新冠肺炎住院人数下降的情况下，未来几个月，市场对欧洲增长的预期应会改善。”到目前为止，欧洲的疫苗接种计划落后于其他一些发达国家，但预计到夏季会加速。高盛分析师在报告中称，“我们认为，欧元区增长预期上升、该地区股市回报强劲、欧洲央行初步发出的正常化信号，以及美联储趋稳等因素，将延长近期欧元走高的趋势。”他们补充称，欧元交易的主要风险将是美联储官员出人意料的强硬表态，尤其是有迹象显示美联储6月（9月）经济预测总结将显示2023年加息。潘德尔补充称：“就美元整体而言，目前市场争论的焦点在于，第一季（第一季）的强势是否反映了拜登财政议程带来的美国持续的强劲表现，还是反映了美国提前接种疫苗的时间表和美联储的重新定价。”“我们认为是后者，所以随着其他国家加快接种疫苗，美联储稳定下来，美元可能再次走低。”
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