参考消息网4月26日报道 据彭博新闻社网站4月20日报道，对摩根大通各项指数的分析显示，按实际有效汇率计算，在32种主要货币中，人民币估值偏高幅度最大。由于中国各种各样商品出口无处不在，这种强劲势头可能会转化为全球范围内通胀加快，从而增添投资者对央行收紧政策的预期。
报道指出，人民币在考虑通胀因素后估值走强的潜在影响反映出中国经济较快从疫情中复苏，也反映出中国作为世界工厂的重要性。自去年7月以来，人民币对包括欧元(1.2072, -0.0012, -0.10%)和日元在内的一篮子主要贸易伙伴货币升值了5%以上。
三井住友银行（SMBC）日兴证券公司新兴市场高级经济师平山光太说：“中国可能会开始引领全球通胀上升。”他表示，“通货再膨胀可能会加速”，同时债券收益率上行压力加大。
基于摩根大通指数的分析显示，人民币实际有效汇率比5年平均值高出2.8个标准差。这一差异在分析所涉及的32种主要货币中是最大的。
报道指出，尽管人民币也受到了美元最近走强的影响，但它强于几乎所有其他亚洲国家货币——这表明投资者将中美两国经济视为全球增长的双引擎。对美国经济复苏速度的担忧通过美国国债收益率传导至全球；中国的影响则将来自它从电子产品、家用电器、服装服饰到医疗和化工产品各类商品的出口。
报道称，当然，根据国际金融协会3月份公布的最新评估报告，其模拟显示人民币被低估了12.8%。报告还显示美元的估值越来越偏高。
据报道，摩根大通的人民币实际有效汇率指数从去年6月份的低点攀升近8%，接近历史最高点。法国农业信贷投资银行的中国区首席经济师达留什·科瓦尔奇克说，人民币升值是因为人民币的名义汇率走强和中国的生活成本上升速度比其他国家要快。
科瓦尔奇克说：“实际有效汇率上升对有些出口商来说是一个挑战，但鉴于中国的生产率上升相对较快，它对大多数出口商来说是可以接受的。到目前为止，生产率的上升无论是在长远内还是在最近几年都超过了实际的升值，因此出口十分强劲，而且应该会保持下去。”
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