未来数月即将出现的通胀究竟是疫情好转引发的暂时性急剧反弹，还是体现了需求拉动和成本推动因素的持续性趋势？关于这个问题，经济学界内部的争论越来越大。
有几个论点认定通胀会出现长期持续增长——该比率在过去十余年一直低于大多数央行设定的2%目标。第一种观点认为美国为一个看似已经好于预期的经济复苏颁布了过量的财政刺激措施。去年春天和12月已经分别出台了3万亿打包方案和9000亿美元刺激计划，今年3月又批准了1.9万亿美元额外支出，紧接着还有2万亿美元的基础设施法案。可见美国应对此次危机的力度要比2008年全球金融危机时大了一个数量级。
但有人反驳说这种刺激措施不会引发持久性通胀，因为家庭把其中很大一部分都存起来拿去还债了。此外对基础设施的投资不仅会增加需求，也将通过扩大可以提升生产力的公共资本存量来增加供给。不过即使考虑到这些动态因素，刺激措施引发的私人储蓄激增也意味着会有一些受压抑的需求会以通胀的形式释放出来。
第二个观点认为美联储和其他大型央行的货币和信贷宽松复合政策过于宽松。央行提供的流动性已经在短期内导致了资产膨胀，并将随着经济再度重开和复苏加速而推动通胀式信贷增长和实际支出。有些人认为央行可以在时机成熟时简单通过缩减资产负债表并让政策利率脱离零或负值区域来消灭多余流动性，但这种说法已经越来越难以让人信服了。
中央银行一直在以相当于“直升机撒钱”或是实践现代货币理论的方式将巨额财政赤字货币化。在公私债务从一个本已很高的基线上（发达经济体相当于GDP的425%，全球的356%）进一步增长的时候，只有将短期和长期低利率相结合才能维持债务负担的可持续性。在这个时候实施货币政策正常化将重挫债券和信贷市场（然后是股市）进而引发经济衰退。可见中央银行实际上已经丧失了其独立性。
而对此的反驳理由是中央银行可以在经济达到充分产能和充分就业时再想方设法维持其信誉和独立性。另一种选项则是脱离对通胀预期的锚定，但这将毁掉央行的声誉，致使物价增长失控。
第三种说法是财政赤字货币化不会引发通胀，反而是防止通缩。但这个说法的前提是将全球经济当前受到的冲击跟2008年作类比，当时的情况是资产泡沫崩溃造成了信贷紧缩，进而导致了总需求冲击。
而当前的问题是我们正从一场负面总供给冲击中恢复过来。因此过度宽松的货币和财政政策确实可能催生通胀，甚至导致更糟糕的滞胀（高通胀与衰退并存）。
在当前情境下我们需要小心一些潜在的负面供应冲击，因为它们既是对潜在增长的威胁，也可能是推高生产成本的因素。这些因素包括去全球化和保护主义抬头这类贸易障碍、疫情后的供应瓶颈、中美关系，还有随之而来的全球供应链巴尔干化，等等。
同样令人担忧的还有发达经济体和新兴经济体的人口结构。当老一辈人通过花光储蓄来刺激消费时，新的移民限制将给劳动力成本带来上升压力。
此外，收入和财富不平等的加剧意味着民粹主义反弹的威胁依然存在。一方面这可能以一些支持工人和工会（这是劳动力成本压力的进一步来源）的财政和监管政策的形式来呈现；另一方面企业寡头势力的集中也可能被证明是通胀性的，因为它提升了生产者的定价能力。当然，对大型科技企业和资本密集劳动力节约型技术的抵制也会在更大范围内减少创新。
对于这种滞胀论也存在一种相反的说法。尽管遭到公众抵制，但人工智能、机器学习和机器人方面的技术创新可能会继续弱化劳动者，而人口结构效应可能会被更高的退休年龄（意味着更多劳动力供给）所抵消。
同样，随着世界许多区域内部一体化的加深，以及服务外包为劳动力迁移的障碍提供了变通之道（印度程序员不必搬到硅谷就可以设计美国手机App），当前的全球化逆转本身也可能被逆转。最后，任何收入不平等的减少可能只会缓解需求乏力和通缩性长期停滞，而非引发严重通胀。
在短期内，消费品、劳动力和大宗商品市场以及一些房地产市场的疲软将防止通胀持续暴增。但在未来几年内一旦出现任何一种持续负面供给冲击，宽松的货币和财政政策就将开始触发持续的通胀（以及最终的滞胀）压力。
毋庸置疑，通胀的回归将带来严重的经济和金融后果。我们将从“大缓和”时代进入一个宏观不稳定的新时期，债券的长期牛市终将结束，不断上升的名义和实际债券收益率将使当前留下的债务无以为继，导致全球股票市场崩溃。在适当的时候我们甚至会再次见证上世纪70年代式的不稳定状态。
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