5月10日,人民币(6.4332, 0.0000, 0.00%)中间价报6.4425,上调253点,上一交易日中间价报6.4678,在岸人民币上一交易日收报6.4589。
美元指数(90.2521, 0.0223, 0.02%)持续下挫
多国CPI数据将出炉
本周多国将相继公布重磅数据,包括美国4月CPI、PPI、零售销售、初请等,欧洲经济景气指数及投资者信心指数,英国GDP及中国CPI。原油市场方面,将迎来石油输出国组织月报及美国能源信息署能源展望报告。央行方面,美联储官员及英国央行行长贝利将发表讲话。
中金宏观:美国4月非农“爆冷”凸显用工荒 美联储低利率解决不了供给瓶颈
美国4月非农就业远不及预期。在需求表现较好的情况下,就业“爆冷”凸显了用工短缺、劳动力匹配难的问题。如果这一问题不能解决,将延缓就业复苏速度,同时加大工资上涨压力。因为只有提高工资,才能吸引劳动力回归工作。
往前看,要重视供给冲击对经济运行和资产价格的影响。疫情后的诸多现象,如美国“用工荒”,芯片短缺,海运运费上涨,上游原材料涨价,背后都有供给因素的催化。我们可能正在经历一代人只会见到一次的全球性供给冲击。
非农欠佳给了美联储继续宽松的理由,但低利率解决不了供给瓶颈,关键是要提高供给弹性。如果拜登的政策只刺激需求,不促进供给,那么市场对通胀的担忧还将更甚。
耶伦:4月非农就业报告凸显出复苏的漫长过程
美国财长耶伦:4月非农就业报告凸显出复苏的漫长过程。我们取得了显著进步,相信将在2022年实现充分就业。相信美国经济可以在2021-22年表现强劲。并不认为失业救济金正在伤害招聘活动。经济的复苏之路将“在一定程度上崎岖不平”。芯片供应短缺问题和软木价格屡创新高都伤害到4月份的非农就业报告。我相信复苏仍然处于正轨之上。非农就业报告会按月被修正,不应把某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。
福奇:美国毫无疑问低估了新冠死亡病例数
福奇在美国全国广播公司的一档节目中,回答了主持人查克·托德关于华盛顿大学一项研究的提问,该研究表明,美国新冠肺炎死亡病例数可能高达90万例。
谈到是否相信真实死亡人数有如此之高时,福奇认为,类似的模型有时是正确的,有时有点偏离,“但我认为毫无疑问,我们一直在低估(死亡病例数)。我们正在经历一场历史性的大流行病,这种情况我们已经有一百多年没见过了。”
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