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IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|美联储褐皮书:美国整体经济活动在年初略有增长 - 赠金王

IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|美联储褐皮书:美国整体经济活动在年初略有增长

2023年03月09日 4094点热度 57人点赞 622条评论

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基本面
​美指
美联储褐皮书:美国整体经济活动在年初略有增长
美联储褐皮书提到,2023年初,美国整体经济活动略有增长。总体而言,供应链中断情况继续缓解。消费者支出总体保持稳定,少数地区在通常放缓的时期报告了零售销售的温和到强劲增长。汽车销量变化不大,但库存水平继续改善。一些地区表示,高通胀和高利率继续减少消费者的可支配收入和购买力,一些人对信用卡债务的上升表示担忧。大多数地区的旅游活动仍然相当强劲。制造业活动在一段时期的收缩之后稳定了下来。
   
黄金
拜登计划在10年内削减近3万亿美元的赤字
据美联社报道,一位美国政府官员称,美国总统拜登即将提出的预算案旨在未来10年削减近3万亿美元赤字。这一赤字削减目标远远高于拜登上个月在国情咨文中承诺的2万亿美元,这与众议院共和党人大相径庭,后者呼吁找到平衡预算的途径,但尚未提出一份蓝图。拜登政府官员指出,共和党议员此前支持的各种税收计划和其他政策将在未来10年使国家债务增加2.7万亿美元以上。
   
原油
参议员重新提出两党议案,反对欧佩克的石油价格操纵 
由美国参议院司法委员会两党成员组成的一个小组重新提出“NOPEC”(《禁止石油生产和出口卡特尔法案》)法案,允许联邦政府采取行动反对欧佩克操纵石油价格,以促进全球石油市场的公平和稳定。
  
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元指数高位震荡,最终小幅收涨0.066%,报105.71,创3个月新高。美国2年期国债收益率持稳在5%关口上方,美国10年期国债收益率收涨0.36%,报3.989%。
观点整理:
需提防市场突然呈现扫盘行情,虽然美元指数已突破新高,打开上行空间,但并不代表价格就一定会持续上行,反而要提防市场突然打出回马枪,不过,若美元真的打出了回马枪,那也会是很好的低多机会
  
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金横盘整理,早盘跌破1810关口后迅速回升,美盘冲高较日低大涨近15美元,但随后回吐涨幅,最终收跌0.01%,报1813.86美元/盎司
观点整理:
美联储主席鲍威尔鹰派讲话的影响笼罩市场,并将3月份加息25个基点的预期暴力拉升至50个基点,美元强势延续涨势,令金价持续承压。隔夜大跌后,金价技术面看空信号显著增加,短线料将试探100日均线附近的1800关口支撑。
  
原油
市场行情整理:
国际原油延续下行,WTI原油盘中跌近2%,创一周新低,最终收跌0.98%,报76.4美元/桶;布伦特原油最终收跌0.89%,报82.54美元/桶。
观点整理:
尽管API原油库存意外下降,给油价提供支撑,但隔夜美联储主席鹰派的讲话继续帮助美元指数冲高,对经济衰退的担忧也有所升温,令油价继续承压。虽然隔夜大跌后,油价存在震荡反弹调整的机会,但预计强势美元压制下,油价短线仍有进一步下行风险。

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