缅甸政变以来缅元崩跌20% 民众疯抢美元和黄金

2021年05月11日 33622点热度 0人点赞 10,896条评论

货币大崩溃!缅甸政变以来缅元崩跌20% 民众疯抢美元和黄金 兑换商美元现金快耗尽

  据缅甸官方媒体报道,缅甸外汇市场周一曾下探1660缅元兑1美元的创纪录低点。自2月1日的军事政变以来,缅元已经大幅贬值了20%。

缅甸政变以来缅元崩跌20% 民众疯抢美元和黄金

此前的纪录低点是2018年9月时录得的1美元兑1650缅元。此前报道称,中美贸易摩擦导致了当时人民币贬值,也导致了缅元的贬值。

当下缅元下跌的原因是缅甸民众对本国货币越来越不信任,这促使许多人转向货币兑换商寻找硬通货。

仰光的一个货币兑换商告诉《日经亚洲评论》:“对现金美元的需求与日俱增,而我的美元库存即将耗尽。”

周一,缅元汇率继续下跌,在公开市场上跌至1685缅元以下,低于官方媒体报道的水平。这导致仰光的一些货币兑换商比平时提前一天关闭业务。

仰光市中心一家货币兑换中心的一名工作人员告诉《日经亚洲评论》:“今天,汇率不稳定,店主指示我们不要继续经营。”

缅甸政变以来缅元崩跌20% 民众疯抢美元和黄金

除了汇率之外,缅甸央行还计算一个参考汇率,供银行之间使用,以及供企业在海外进行交易和投资。

周一,参考汇率稳定在1593.5缅元,好于2018年9月创下的低点。这表明,街头民众的不信任是压低缅元币值的主要原因。

一家外国银行的雇员告诉《日经亚洲评论》:“人们取出存款,换成美元和黄金,以保护自己的资产。”

缅甸的商业银行一直在努力防止存款外流,收紧对ATM取款的限制。人们每天都要排好几个小时的队去取钱。

缅甸央行4月底曾两次干预外汇市场,卖出1,200万美元以支撑缅元。受这两次干预行动影响,缅元汇率都暂时上涨,然后又下跌。

缅甸央行一直试图帮助银行维持存款水平。自5月3日以来,人们已获准开设新的银行账户,显然可以毫无困难地提取现金。

缅甸军政府一直在努力使经济正常化。缅甸仍在夜间封锁互联网,但已经放松了仰光的宵禁。

缅甸央行副行长Win Thaw上周五对记者表示:“银行账户里的钱永远不会因为任何原因丢了。如果人们合作信任国家银行体系,他们面临的困难将在短时间内得到解决。”

自动取款机前排起的长队并没有显示出这种信任的迹象。一位周一一大早在仰光排队取ATM机的储户说:“我只能在下午3点左右取工资。我昨天中午左右来的,一直等到七点,但在轮到我之前ATM机里已经没有钱了。”

缅甸的许多加工食品和工业产品依赖进口,而缅元贬值正在推高价格。过去三个月里,普通汽油的价格上涨了30%以上。

许多人认为缅元的崩溃是军方管理经济失败的表现。一位外国银行家告诉《日经亚洲评论》:“购买美元似乎不仅限于个人,而且正在向企业蔓延。我认为对军政府来说,形势相当糟糕——这表明这里的人们不再信任这种货币。如果每个人都继续购买美元和黄金,那么缅元就有可能无法停止下跌。”

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