最近印度成为全球疫情焦点，自2月份第二波疫情爆发以来，来印度旅游人数大幅下降。卢比汇率在4月份跌至9个月来最低水平，引发了高达500亿美元的套息交易平仓。在此前每日新冠感染人数飙升至30万以上后，印度许多地方政府已经实施遏制疫情传播的措施。
此外，据知情人士透露，印度政府还为疫情影响最严重的地区准备了一项刺激方案，旨在支持封锁下挣扎的印度经济。据悉，印度财政部正在研究提振旅游业、航空业和酒店业的提案。这些审议都是私下进行的，还处于早期的讨论阶段，所以还没有宣布。印度财政部发言人也拒绝置评。
尽管尚未正式公布，但印度的财政刺激规模可能有限。尽管从印度央行获得了104亿美元红利，莫迪政府仍然没有太大的财政支出空间。总部位于孟买的券商Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt的经济学家Teresa John表示，这意味着刺激措施最有可能以减税的形式出现。他说：
“尽管最近印度央行的红利提供了一些缓冲，但是政府没有太多的回旋余地。刺激措施可能主要是额外的担保和税收优惠，或者是一些改革开始时需要的刺激手段。所有这些可能不涉及大规模的政府支出。”
特别是在疫情病例减少后，疲软的经济增长前景使印度央行决策者负起刺激经济的责任。知情人士表示，印度财政部长Nirmala Sitharaman称上月她很仔细地监控经济发展，最近就刺激方案和经济学家进行了讨论。
4月，印度财政部放宽了政府部门资本支出的规定，试图提振经济支出。
在印度政府正在酝酿财政刺激之际，有迹象表明印度的疫情有好转迹象。印度卢比也开始反弹，卢比兑美元汇率5月攀升了1.7%，出现强劲反弹，成为亚洲表现最好的货币。卢比汇率的回升反映了印度应对疫情做出的努力。
巴克莱集团本周发布的一份报告称，由于资金支持、有吸引力的估值和印度央行干预减少，预计下季度美元兑印度卢比将从目前约73升值至72.5。
此外，卢比还通过提供该地区最高的套利交易回报吸引了投机性资金。
科塔克证券的货币策略师Anindya Banerjee说：
“高套利和低波动使卢比脱颖而出。人们希望疫情最严重的时期已经过去，印度央行可能会在某个阶段介入，限制卢比的涨势。”
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