人民币(6.3908, -0.0199, -0.31%)汇率近期强势不减。5月26日，在岸人民币兑美元升破6.40关口，为2018年6月份以来首次。离岸人民币兑美元汇率同样强势拉升，一度升破6.39。自今年4月以来，人民币兑美元汇率持续升值超2%，推动此轮人民币走强的主因是美元指数(90.1314, 0.0846, 0.09%)走弱，同时，我国高景气度出口以及外资继续增持我国金融资产也对人民币汇率形成支撑。
受近日进口大宗商品价格显著上涨影响，有观点认为货币当局应推动人民币汇率进一步升值，以对冲大宗商品价格上涨的影响。但从近期官方的密集表态看，官方对人民币汇率的市场化改革方向态度是坚定的。央行现已基本退出对人民币汇率的常态化干预，这就意味着央行对人民币汇率涨跌波动的容忍度大幅提升，汇率的变动主要取决于市场供求和国际金融市场变化。因此，呼吁人民币汇率升值或贬值的说法和建议本来就有悖汇率市场化改革的大方向。
在经典的“不可能三角”问题中，开放经济条件下的一国货币政策独立性、汇率稳定性、资本自由流动三个目标中只能同时实现其二，而要放弃另外一个目标。对于像中国这样的大国经济体，这道选择题的答案显而易见：货币政策要以我为主，进一步提高独立性，并促进资本更加高效自由的流动，以服务双循环新发展格局的形成，推动人民币国际化。对汇率而言，一味追求稳定是在作茧自缚，不符合开放型经济体的长期发展利益，相反，以市场供求为基础的汇率双向波动，可以发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器作用，通过汇率波动缓释潜在金融风险。
长远来看，未来人民币汇率的涨跌应交由市场决定，央行所要做的仅是在少数极端情况下的预期引导和逆周期调节，在这方面自“8·11”汇改以来央行已积累了不少经验，工具箱也较为丰富。
不少专家分析指出，随着美元指数中长期进入弱周期，人民币兑美元汇率存在进一步升值的空间。不过，不论人民币兑美元汇率能升值到何种水平，愈加市场化的人民币汇率形成机制决定了其未来的走势不会一路坦途，人民币汇率双向波动会成为常态。对企业和居民来说，与其根据升贬值预期套利，不如合理管理汇率风险，理性面对汇率涨跌。
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