美元指数基本持稳,现报92.30附近;现货黄金也保持稳定,目前交投在1743美元/盎司左右。本交易日,投资者聚焦美联储会议纪要,预计将引发市场剧烈波动。
金价周二反弹1%,并突破1740美元/盎司,创下两周高位。周三亚市开盘后,金价正在整固周二涨幅。
受美元走软和美国国债收益率下降的提振,现货黄金周二上涨近1%。现货黄金收报1743.27美元/盎司,上涨14.97美元或0.87%,盘中触及3月25日以来的最高水平1745.51美元/盎司。
周二,美国国债收益率连续第三天下跌,基准10年期国债收益率回到1.70%以下。在全球新冠肺炎疫情激增和主要经济体新一轮封锁之际,投资者对近期经济复苏的乐观情绪变得谨慎起来。
此外,随着主要央行淡化对通胀上升的担忧,市场认为,美国国债的抛售可能过头了,进而导致美债收益率和美元下跌。
不断下滑的美国国债收益率往往有利于非收益资产黄金。然而,由于美国股市创纪录的上涨,黄金的涨幅似乎有限。此外,FOMC会议纪要仍是市场关注的焦点,市场将关注美联储对经济和通胀前景的新暗示,这可能对金价产生重大影响。
与此同时,黄金交易员可以从更广泛的市场情绪和美元价格走势中寻找线索,这取决于美债收益率的动态。
本交易日最值得关注的宏观事件是3月16日至17日美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要,投资者将从中寻找更多有关其货币政策的线索。
香港时间周四凌晨02:00,美联储将公布3月货币政策会议纪要,有关通胀及资产购买计划的内容可能会引发市场波动。
当地时间3月17日,美联储如期宣布维持利率不变。美联储大幅调高了对经济增长的预期,但同时表示,尽管经济前景有所改善,而且今年通货膨胀率有所上升,但预计在2023年之前不会加息。
正如市场普遍预期的那样,FOMC在3月会议上投票决定将短期借款利率维持在接近于零的水平,同时继续实施资产购买计划,即美联储每月至少购买1200亿美元债券。联邦基金利率中值在2023年底依然将保持不变。
值得注意的是,点阵图显示多位票委调整了对货币政策调整时点的判断,有2位委员认为2023年底美联储可能已经完成了1个百分点的加息,FOMC内部相关讨论细节值得关注。
FOMC在3月会后声明中表示:“在复苏步伐放缓之后,经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升,尽管受疫情影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱。通货膨胀率继续低于2%。”
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