6月28日上海原油价格冲高回落，一度刷新17个月新高，投资者关注本周OPEC+会议的结果。如果8月增产50万桶以下，将继续支撑油价上涨。
OPEC+将在5-7月向市场恢复210万桶/日的供给，这是逐渐取消去年创纪录减产计划的一部分。OPEC+下次会议将于7月1日举行，可能在8月进一步增加石油产量。
IEXS盈十证券预计OPEC+将在8月将产量增加约50万桶/日，这可能会支撑价格上涨。安智银行分析师在一份报告中表示：“低于此的任何数量都可能足以让多头在短期内推高市场。” 一位驻新加坡的石油分析师表示，除非OPEC+供应增加100万桶/日或更多，否则油价不太可能出现大幅回调。
美国夏季驾车高峰时期已经到来，汽油需求增长，库存下降。美国原油库存下降，德国经济数据增强，质疑美国伊朗重返核协议的可能性，国际油价持续上涨。原油期货市场仍受到需求超过供应的数据支撑，包括上周三美国能源信息署报告美国商业原油库存减少了760万桶。美国原油库存持续下降反映出市场供应紧缩，美国、中国和欧洲等国需求都有增加。技术面，原油价格继续维持上涨格局。操作建议：多单持有。
近期油价上涨很大程度上要归功于主要经济体加快了夏季疫情限制措施的放宽步伐，石油需求继而激增。伊朗核协议的讨论进展似乎也遇到了障碍，这减少了伊朗石油供应充斥市场的威胁。波动性下降和季节性因素的组合也提供了看涨的顺风因素。虽然市场声音呼吁欧佩克+增加供应，但出现显著增幅的可能性很低，因为沙特能源部长近期明确指出油价面临的风险，并补充有必要保持谨慎
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