IEXS盈十证券股市分析|加息是正面信号 缩债不会进一步提速

2021年12月20日 4337点热度 0人点赞 682条评论
基本面

美股

美联储理事沃勒必要情况下将讨论3月加息的可能性

沃勒表示,美联储最早在明年春季将灵活调整政策。高通胀还在持续且扩大,劳动力市场接近最大化就业,在减码结束后不久加息是合理的。如有必要,希望将明年3月启动首次加息作为选项。美联储可能准备在明年3月或5月加息。在加息后的一两次会议上,可能会允许部分收缩资产负债表。

美联储威廉姆斯:加息是正面信号 缩债不会进一步提速 

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示,结束债券购买创造了2022年加息的可能性,加息将是积极发展的信号。现在的通胀太高了,加速缩债是有道理的,但更进一步加速缩减购债规模不会带来任何真正的好处。
A股

国家统计局去年GDP现价总量为1013567亿元

国家统计局公告称,经最终核实,2020年,GDP现价总量为1013567亿元,比初步核算数减少了2419亿元;按不变价格计算,比上年增长2.2%,比初步核算数下降0.1个百分点。 

财政部:前11月印花税收入3935亿元,同比增长35.4%

据财政部财政收支数据,1-11月累计,印花税收入3935亿元,同比增长35.4%。其中,证券交易印花税收入2476亿元,同比增长43.3%。 
港股

香港交易所结束SPAC咨询,SPAC于明年1月1日起生效

香港交易所公布引入新规则,在香港设立全新SPAC上市机制,并于2022年1月1日起生效。根据相关规则,SPAC股份的发行价必须为10港元或以上,机构专业投资者人数至少20人。
技术面

美股

市场走势技术分析

股市方面,美股三大股指全线收跌,道指收跌1.48%,报35365.44点;标普500指数收跌1.03%,报4620.64点;纳指收跌0.07%,报15169.68点。
观点整理:

美股短期并不会崩盘,因为美联储虽然释放出了鹰派信号,但目前只是减少了购债规模,疫情的反复也可能会延后美联储的加息,实际上当前还是处在货币宽松周期。
A股

市场走势技术分析

A股三大指数集体低开,全天维持震荡下跌走势。沪指收跌1.16%,报3632.36点;深证成指跌1.62%,报14867.55点;创业板指跌1.61%,报3434.34点。盘面上,公共交通、建筑、电力等板块涨幅居前,半导体、矿物制品、酿酒等板块跌幅居前。
观点整理:

降低实体成本,有助于降低上市公司融资成本、改善基本面需求等,有利于基本面驱动定价。眼下至2022年,货币流动性环境或类似2015年至2016年的状态,“资产荒”的情形仍将延续,债牛基础牢固、股市结构深化。

港股

市场走势技术分析

港股小幅低开,随后跌幅持续扩大,午后一度跌超300点,逼近23000点关口。恒指收跌1.2%,报23192.63点;恒生科技指数收跌2.43%。汽车股、医药股多数下挫,钢铁股、黄金股全天表现强势。
观点整理:

随着新冠肺炎疫情影响减弱,宏观经济依然处于复苏通道。由于此次经济复苏的不均衡性,仍需要宽松的流动性环境支持。因此,港股不具备熊市基础。此外,市场回调让很多优质公司的估值很有吸引力,前期的估值调整为投资者提供了很好安全边际。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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