
基本面
美指
关税风暴席卷全球!IMF总裁重磅发声:短期无惧衰退,但警惕这个致命风险
在全球贸易版图剧烈震荡之际,国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁格奥尔基耶娃投下”定心丸”与”警示弹”双重信号。她明确表示,尽管特朗普政府掀起的关税海啸正制造巨大不确定性,但短期内尚不足以引发经济衰退,不过持续的政策迷雾恐将侵蚀全球增长根基。
关税冲突加剧全球经济不确定性,投资者倾向于持有美元避险,短期内可能提振美元汇率;若关税推高美国通胀,美联储可能维持高利率甚至进一步加息,从而增强美元吸引力。但中长期若关税战持续,美国经济增长受损、贸易伙伴反制,美元可能承压。IMF的警告也暗示,政策不确定性若长期存在,最终可能削弱美元的全球主导地位。
黄金
随着金价创出新高,华尔街巨头都更加看好黄金
新的有利因素支撑着金价目前的历史高位。随着黄金牛市没有显示出放缓的迹象,投资银行巨头摩根士丹利(大摩)、花旗集团和高盛都公布了对2025年及以后金价的最新预测。高盛给出了一个极其乐观(尽管不太可能)的预测:到2025年底,金价可能升至每盎司4000美元以上。
大摩的金属和矿业大宗商品策略师Amy Gower周一表示,金价创出历史新高已经有相当长的一段时间了,每当分析师预测见顶时,金价就会进一步上涨。
她说:“相对于这次加息周期之前的水平,利率仍然很高,所以这实际上是关于前进的方向。已经见顶了吗?还是正在普遍走低?这确实使黄金相对更具竞争力。今年可能会略有停顿,这就是为什么实物需求仍然很重要,所以我们也需要看到这种支撑,那些ETF(资金流入)刚刚开始,持有黄金ETF,所以我们希望这能持续下去,相信这轮涨势会继续有支撑。”
原油
供需双重推动之下,油价多头加速向上,准备突破?
受到美国总统特朗普对俄罗斯及伊朗石油供应威胁的推动,同时亚洲大国制造业活动加速扩张为市场注入信心。贸易担忧情绪、地缘风险与库存数据交织,油价短期波动性加剧
瑞银集团分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示:“特朗普对俄罗斯和伊朗石油的二级关税威胁是市场密切关注的因素,尽管他暂时无意立即实施,但未来供应风险正在逐步上升。”
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周一,因为美国关税的不确定性使市场持观望态度,美元指数小幅收涨0.17%,报104.18。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.2100%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报3.8950%。
观点整理:
回顾周一美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线先承压下跌,随后欧盘再度发力突破早盘高点位置,之后美盘再度发力上行,最终看日线级别大阳收尾。针对目前月线级别阻力于105区域,周线级别阻力于106.60位置,所以针对中长期目前偏空对待。另外针对日线级别看暂时需要关注103.90区域支撑及昨日低点得失,价格不破昨日低点则日线有反弹表现,四小时上暂时关注104.10区域。所以综合看中长期偏空,但是波段及短线有偏上行,所以暂时不破昨日低点之前于103.90-104区域看上行,后续重点关注104.50-104.80区域,价格只有提前再度收盘于日线支撑下方才进一步看承压,否则暂时先关注向上运行。
黄金
市场行情整理:
受避险情绪提振,现货黄金延续涨势再创新高,并创下自1986年以来最强季度表现,最终收涨1.25%,报3122.97美元/盎司。现货白银最终小幅收跌0.07%,报34.09美元/盎司。
观点整理:
避险情绪升温,带动金价走强,同时美元指数震荡回落,支撑黄金多头向上,突破3000美元整数关之后多头存在加速的需求,等待多头情绪冷却之后的回调机会
原油
市场行情整理:
因特朗普警告可能对俄罗斯石油买家征收二级关税、威胁轰炸伊朗并征收关税,国际油价大幅走高。WTI原油最终收涨3.41%,报71.32美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨3.14%,报74.67美元/桶。
观点整理:
技术层面,布伦特原油突破73美元后触及74.74美元,显示短期多头动能增强,但75美元关口阻力明显。若地缘风险持续发酵,油价可能测试76美元甚至更高水平。

文章评论
Good day very cool blog!! Man .. Excellent ..
Wonderful .. I will bookmark your web site and take the feeds additionally?
I'm happy to seek out a lot of useful info right here within the
post, we want work out more strategies in this regard, thank you for sharing.
. . . . .
Great post! Love the insights, really made me think. Keep it up!
Yes! Finally something about En İyi Kumar Siteleri.
Awesome read! Very informative and well-written. Looking forward to more!
I like it when folks get together and share views. Great blog, keep it up!
Really enjoyed this post! Thanks for sharing such valuable info!
What's up, I would like to subscribe for this weblog to take hottest
updates, so where can i do it please help out.
<a href="https://nandina.ir/protest-against-results-exam-for-gifted-schools/">اعتراض به نتایج آزمون ورودی مدارس تیزهوشان</a>،
<br/>پس از اعلام نتایج آزمون ورودی مدارس
تیزهوشان، دانشآموزانی که می خواهند نسبت به اعتراض به نتایج آزمون ورودی مدارس تیزهوشان اقدام نمایند، میتوانند از طریق سامانه مای مدیو
به نشانی my.medu.ir اقدام به ثبت اعتراض نمایند.
<a href="https://nandina.ir/time-for-alborz-mandegar-high-school-exam/">زمان برگزاری آزمون ورودی دبیرستان ماندگار البرز</a>، <br/>با توجه به آمار
قابل توجه موفقیت دانشآموزان این دبیرستان در آزمونهای سراسری
و المپیادهای علمی، آگاهی از زمان برگزاری
آزمون ورودی دبیرستان ماندگار البرز، دغدغهای مهم برای بسیاری از
دانشآموزان و اولیاء محسوب میشود
Your style is really unique in comparison to other folks I have read stuff from.
Many thanks for posting when you've got the opportunity, Guess I'll just book mark this blog.
Its like you read my mind! You appear to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something.
I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is excellent blog.
A great read. I'll definitely be back.
Hi, I log on to your blog on a regular basis. Your humoristic style is witty,
keep it up!
Have you ever thought about creating an e-book or guest authoring on other
blogs? I have a blog based on the same subjects you discuss
and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my subscribers would enjoy your
work. If you're even remotely interested, feel free to send me
an e mail.
My partner and I stumbled over here different page and thought I might check things out.
I like what I see so now i am following you. Look forward to
looking over your web page for a second time.
We're a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our
community. Your site provided us with valuable information to
work on. You have done a formidable job and our entire community
will be thankful to you.
نرم افزار حسابداری آنلاین
It's a pity you don't have a donate button! I'd most certainly
donate to this superb blog! I guess for now i'll settle for bookmarking
and adding your RSS feed to my Google account.
I look forward to fresh updates and will share this site with my
Facebook group. Talk soon!
Hello, Neat post. There's a problem along with your web site in web explorer,
could test this? IE nonetheless is the market
leader and a big portion of other people will leave out
your fantastic writing because of this problem.
Just wish to say your article is as surprising.
The clarity on your post is just excellent and i can think you are an expert
on this subject. Fine with your permission allow me to snatch your feed to keep up to date with imminent post.
Thank you 1,000,000 and please carry on the gratifying work.
<a href="https://nandina.ir/%d8%ab%d8%a8%d8%aa-%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%85-%da%a9%d9%86%da%a9%d9%88%d8%b1-%da%a9%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b3%db%8c-%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b4%d8%af-%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%b1%db%8c/">ثبت نام کنکور کارشناسی ارشد سراسری</a>، <br/>فرآیندی است که توسط سازمان سنجش آموزش
کشور به منظور پذیرش دانشجویان در مقطع
کارشناسی ارشد در دانشگاههای
دولتی و سایر مؤسسات آموزش عالی برگزار میشود.
Website Bokep, <a href="https://plantagroup.com/">SITUS BOKEP INDONESIA</a> bokep viral
fantastic issues altogether, you simply won a logo new reader.
What would you suggest in regards to your submit that you made some days
ago? Any certain?
I'm not sure where you are getting your information, but great topic.
I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.
Thanks for fantastic info I was looking for this information for my mission.
Just wish to say your article is as surprising.
The clarity in your post is simply excellent and i can assume you are
an expert on this subject. Well with your permission let me to grab your RSS feed to
keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the gratifying work.
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your website and in accession capital to assert that
I get in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Anyway I'll be subscribing to
your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently
quickly.
70918248
References: <br />
<a href="http://code.sz-chaohui.cn/laraeslim07257">how To Buy Anabolic steroids online</a> <br />
70918248
References: <br />
<a href="https://www.fitmatures.com/@pollyweg16245">Which of the following correctly describes anabolic substances?</a> <br />
You're so interesting! I do not suppose I've truly read
through a single thing like this before. So good to
discover somebody with a few genuine thoughts on this subject.
Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This website
is something that is needed on the web, someone with some originality!
Hi, just wanted to say, I liked this blog post.
It was funny. Keep on posting!
Hurrah! Finally I got a web site from where I know how to
really obtain useful data regarding my study and knowledge.
Hi there i am kavin, its my first time to commenting anywhere, when i
read this piece of writing i thought i could also
make comment due to this good article.
70918248
References: <br />
best post cycle therapy for steroids (<a href="https://afrilovers.com/@nigelchurch950">Winifred</a>) <br />
Hi there colleagues, its impressive post on the topic of teachingand entirely
defined, keep it up all the time.
70918248
References: <br />
anabolic def; <a href="http://jenkins.stormindgames.com/katiacornejo83">Fredrick</a>, <br />
70918248
References: <br />
after stopping Steroids (<a href="https://xajhuang.com:3100/myrtisstrack22">https://xajhuang.com</a>) <br />
Simply desire to say your article is as astounding.
The clearness in your put up is simply great and i could assume you are a professional on this subject.
Well together with your permission allow me to clutch your RSS feed to stay up
to date with impending post. Thanks 1,000,000 and please keep up the
rewarding work.
It's going to be ending of mine day, but before end I am reading this enormous post to increase my experience.
İstanbul su kaçak bulma cihazı Banyodaki su kaçağını tespit etmek için kullandıkları teknoloji çok etkileyiciydi. Hızlı çözüm sundular. Tarık C. https://audit.promedia66.co.uk/domain/uskudartesisat.com
hi!,I love your writing so so much! proportion we communicate extra approximately your post
on AOL? I require an expert on this area to resolve my
problem. May be that is you! Taking a look
forward to look you.
Also visit my web page :: <a href="https://issuu.com/marcusduran92">official source</a>
Heya i'm for the primary time here. I found this board and I to find It really useful
& it helped me out much. I'm hoping to offer one thing again and aid others like you helped me.
Karlıktepe su kaçak tespiti Profesyonel hizmetler, garanti ve güvenlik sunar. https://dev.globhy.com/read-blog/11356_uskudar-su-tesisatcisi.html?mode=day
I pay a quick visit day-to-day a few web pages and
blogs to read content, however this weblog gives
feature based content.
We're a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme
in our community. Your website provided us with valuable information to work on. You have done an impressive job and our entire community will
be thankful to you.
Great blog you have here but I was wondering if you knew of any discussion boards that cover the same topics talked about in this article?
I'd really love to be a part of group where I can get feed-back
from other experienced people that share the same interest.
If you have any recommendations, please let me know.
Thank you!
Hi Neat post Theres an issue together with your web site in internet explorer may test this IE still is the marketplace chief and a good component of people will pass over your fantastic writing due to this problem
Hey there You have done a fantastic job I will certainly digg it and personally recommend to my friends Im confident theyll be benefited from this site
Hello Neat post Theres an issue together with your site in internet explorer would check this IE still is the marketplace chief and a large element of other folks will leave out your magnificent writing due to this problem
70918248
References: <br />
best fat burning steroid, <a href="http://hzhang.myqnapcloud.com:3000/mariettarfn16">Winnie</a>,
<br />
Wow wonderful blog layout How long have you been blogging for you make blogging look easy The overall look of your site is great as well as the content
We're a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our
community. Your site provided us with valuable info to work on. You've done an impressive job and
our whole community will be thankful to you.