IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|黄金上涨动力再次转变,美元贬值现在是主要推动力

2025年03月20日 4820点热度 1192人点赞 76条评论

基本面​

美指

美联储按兵不动,鲍威尔“观望”政策迷雾,降息预期小幅回升

美联储在最新政策会议上宣布维持利率不变,尽管市场普遍预期今年将降息50个基点,但美联储主席鲍威尔强调,政策制定者将等待特朗普政府的经济政策进一步明朗化。鲍威尔指出,当前经济面临“异常高”的不确定性,尤其是关税政策的影响,这使得美联储在降息问题上保持谨慎态度。

Capital.com高级金融市场分析师凯尔·罗达评论道:“鲍威尔成功传递了美联储将聚焦长期趋势而非短期冲击的信息,这解释了股市上涨和美元下跌的现象。”

黄金

黄金上涨动力再次转变,美元贬值现在是主要推动力

道明证券(TDS)的资深大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示,虽然各国央行是去年金价上涨背后的主要买家,但主要推动力现在已转向货币贬值和避险情绪,在今年的购金活动中更重要的是购金以对冲货币贬值。他说:“如果美元升值,央行的‘神秘买家’就会介入。但当美元贬值时,西方投资者群体也往往购买黄金,这是购金的传统理由,与利率、美元等呈反向关系。”

今年黄金格局的美妙之处在于:就购金的主要驱动因素而言,你实际上拥有几乎完美的多元化。一方面,如果美元升值,央行的‘神秘买家’就会介入。但当美元贬值时,西方投资者群体也往往购买黄金,这是购金的传统理由,与利率、美元等呈反向关系。

原油

EIA库存下降,支撑油价反弹,短期维持区间震荡

在美联储维持利率不变、美国燃油需求强劲的背景下,油价周三小幅上涨。美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示,上周美国汽油和柴油库存下降,其中汽油库存减少670万桶,降至年内最低水平,而馏分油库存减少430万桶,表明需求依然稳健

“美国成品油库存的下降表明需求强劲,特别是在春季驾驶旺季即将到来之际,这有助于支撑油价,”能源分析师John Kilduff表示。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

周三,美元指数冲高回落,在美联储利率决议公布后急速下挫,抹去日内大部分涨幅,最终收涨0.215%,报103.47。美债收益率盘中跳水,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.237%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率失守4%,收报3.993%。

观点整理:

回顾周三美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线先获得支撑上行,随后价格持续延续上行,但是在晚间受到市场消息影响价格出现再度承压,从整体上价格目前依旧承压于日线阻力104区域,此位置作为波段走势的关键分水岭,在没有上破前先关注承压,只有上破后才反手看多头。

黄金

市场行情整理:

现货黄金连续第三日上涨,并再创历史新高,在鲍威尔讲话期间站上3050美元关口,最终收涨0.44%,报3047.39美元/盎司。现货白银再度挑战34关口失败后陷入盘整,最终收跌0.68%,报33.79美元/盎司。

观点整理:

美联储利率决议前夕,金价大幅走高,站稳3000美元整数关之后在避险情绪的加持之下,进入加速阶段,目前来看,若美联储降息预期升温,则不排除金价继续向上的可能性,短期偏多为主,等待低吸机会

原油

市场行情整理:

随着中东地区地缘政治风险再度回温,以及美国政府数据显示燃料库存减少,国际油价反弹。WTI原油在EIA数据公布后持续走高,最终收涨0.72%,报67.02美元/桶;布伦特原油收复70关口,收涨0.71%,报70.56美元/桶。

观点整理:

由于API库存大幅增加,同时俄乌冲突缓和,俄罗斯同意暂时停止攻击乌克兰能源基础设施的影响,使得供给端过剩的担忧情绪再起,施压油价,而需求方面依然受制于全球经济增速的放缓,短期不排除跌破区间支撑的可能性,等待EIA库存数据落地为主

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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