
基本面
美指
美股上涨:圣诞假期前科技股与非必需消费品领涨
美股周二收盘全线上涨,大型股和成长股走高给指标股指带来支撑。市场在圣诞假期前提前收市。由于超级大盘股对市场的影响力超乎寻常,它们的表现往往是推动指数的关键因素,再加上许多投资者因假期离场,交易量减少,其他催化剂不多,它们的影响就更加明显。
Allianz 投资管理高级投资策略师Charlie Ripley表示,过去两个月推动市场走高的题材依然完好,美联储的行动并未扼杀涨势。他指出,经济前景、美国消费和劳动力市场等因素都是”市场进入2025年的有利条件。
黄金
金价在圣诞前夕窄幅震荡,市场关注美联储2025年举措
黄金市场因为圣诞节假期休市;金价周二在假日清淡的交易中持稳,投资者对美联储的利率策略和当选总统特朗普的关税政策进行了展望,这些政策可能会影响黄金明年的走势。
OANDA MarketPulse的市场分析师Zain Vawda说:”目前的横盘走势似乎主要是受低流动性环境的驱动。”
黄金在2024年取得了辉煌的成绩,有望以27%的涨幅创下自2010年以来的最佳表现。
原油
美原油重返70美元,关注2025地缘局势变化
圣诞假期休市之前,美原油报收70.17美元/桶,重回区间震荡中轴线附近,2024年油价整体呈现震荡下行走势。
其中一季度,油价单边上行,并达到全年高点,主要是供应端 OPEC + 减产,地缘政治上俄乌战事持续、巴以冲突升级多重利好推动油价上涨。
年初起,OPEC + 持续实施减产措施,对油价起到了一定的支撑作用。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周二,美元指数连续第二个交易日走高,最终收涨0.056%,报108.14。美债收益率冲高回落,两年期美债收益率收报4.349%,10年期美债收益率收报4.589%。
观点整理:
回顾周一美指价格表现,早盘期间短线震荡后如期向上测试四小时阻力位置,但是欧盘后持续发力并且美盘没有快速承压反而是高位震荡,价格没有进一步下探日线支撑区域并且最终当天大阳收尾。表明市场还是偏强表现。日线支撑暂时关注107.10区域,四小时支撑于107.90-108区间,短线依此支撑看进一步上行,上方关注108.50-106.20区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金在假日清淡的交易中企稳,于接近10美元的区间内窄幅波动,最终收涨0.17%,报2617.27美元/盎司。现货白银继续横盘整理,最终收跌0.08%,报29.63美元/盎司。
观点整理:
美元指数短期依然处于高位运行之中,且美联储降息预期放缓,不利金价走强,但日线均线尚未拐头向下,因此维持区间震荡,等待指标修复完成。
原油
市场行情整理:
由于短期假期出行构成利多,油价扭转了前一交易日的跌势。WTI原油站上70关口,最终收涨0.83%,报70.01美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨0.77%,报73.21美元/桶。
观点整理:
周二早盘,西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)市场表现出一定的积极态势,价格正试图再次朝着 72.50 美元的价位缓慢攀升,72.50 美元这一水平是一个重要的阻力位,要最终突破该价位确实需要费些力气。如果价格最终上破这一水平,行情就会真正开始启动。

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