贵金属黄金并不能够提供股息、利息或现金流；对比而言，这使得黄金在增长前景具有吸引力、实际收益率（超出通胀的回报率）上行的环境下处于劣势；金价挣扎着攀升回到1月至2月震荡高点的下降趋势中，接下来仍未重新突破2020年3月和11月低点的上升趋势线（疫情上行趋势）
金价受困于下降趋势中
金价似乎仍未成功突破，黄金成为了所有贵金属和工业金属中表现最差的品种，或因其缺乏铜和银具有的经济吸引力。相比较而言，这使得黄金在在增长前景具有吸引力、实际收益率（超出通胀的回报率）上行的环境下处于劣势。
事实上，收益率对金价的影响很小。增加的利率改变了价值考虑、并改变了资产配置的偏好。若黄金成为对冲通胀的手段，那么英国和美国通胀预期处于数年高点将使得黄金很难以最有效的方式完成其对冲通胀的角色，尤其是投资者认为市场上还有更高潜在回报率的品种以供选择时（例如美国国债或者比特币）。
金价与黄金波动率失去同步性
从历史角度来看，黄金价格与其波动率与其他资产类别不同。尽管其他资产类别（如债券和股票）不喜波动率增加（因其暗示现金流、股息和息票支付等将面临更大不确定性）。而黄金则倾向于在波动性较高的时期受益。
黄金波动率技术分析（日线图）：2020年2月-2021年2月
黄金波动率在最近几天中下滑，但或多或少比最近4个月交投在更为有利的区间中。黄金波动率GVZ （根据芝加哥期权交易所黄金波动率ETF ）追踪了根据黄金期权链得到的1个月隐含波动率，目前交投在18.34附近，较2月首周录得的年度高点24.03明显下降。
黄金波动率与金价之间的5日相关系数为-0.77 ，而20日相关系数则在-0.06 。就在一周前（2月16日），5日相关系数为-0.75 ，而20日相关系数则是0.09。
长期财政刺激的推动在低利率环境下应利好黄金价格（类似2009-2011年），就笔者的观点而言就是这么简单。随着美国总统拜登推动其1.9万亿全部的财政刺激计划，参议院民主党具有通过大部分财政刺激计划的能力，使之成为与预算调节相对应的法律；曾在2020年帮助金价走高的财政刺激有望在2021年很快回归。
黄金价格技术分析（日线图）：2020年2月-2021年2月
黄金价格从2020年低点/高点区间的50%斐波回撤水平反弹，但仍未明确突破技术水平汇集区域的强大支撑。市场因此远未受到1月和2月高点延伸而来的年内下降趋势的阻碍。金价仍交投在2015年低点/2020年高点区间的23.6%斐波回撤水平下方（1832.48一线附近），同时也与2020年低点到高点区间的38.2%斐波回撤水平相距不远（1836.97一线）。该区域可能在2月成为金价的阻力。
金价周线技术分析：2015年-2021年2月
在之前的展望中曾指出，「突破2020年8月和11月高点延续而来的下跌趋势、以及2020年高点/低点区间的38.2%斐波回撤水平，表明进一步升势正在开始。若金价突破1965.57一线将表明，周线图上的一系列"更低的高点和低点"已经结束。反之，若金价跌破1840一线则将表明从2020年3月和11月低点开始的上行趋势已经被打破，金价有可能进一步跌向1764.57一线（2020年11月低点）。」
散户持仓数据显示，83.60%的散户为净多头，多头与空头的持仓比为5.10：1 。净多头持仓较昨日减少12.11%，较上周减少2.03%；净空头持仓较昨日增加18.45%，较上周增加20.66%。
通常认为散户持仓数据为反向指标，散户是净多头的事实表明金价可能继续下跌。
然而，净多头持仓较昨日和上周均有减少。近期的情绪变化暗示，尽管散户仍为净多头，但当前金价走势可能很快反转走高。
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