黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

2021年02月24日 11980点热度 2人点赞 2,789条评论

贵金属黄金并不能够提供股息、利息或现金流;对比而言,这使得黄金在增长前景具有吸引力、实际收益率(超出通胀的回报率)上行的环境下处于劣势;金价挣扎着攀升回到1月至2月震荡高点的下降趋势中,接下来仍未重新突破20203月和11月低点的上升趋势线(疫情上行趋势)

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

金价受困于下降趋势中

金价似乎仍未成功突破,黄金成为了所有贵金属和工业金属中表现最差的品种,或因其缺乏铜和银具有的经济吸引力。相比较而言,这使得黄金在在增长前景具有吸引力、实际收益率(超出通胀的回报率)上行的环境下处于劣势。

事实上,收益率对金价的影响很小。增加的利率改变了价值考虑、并改变了资产配置的偏好。若黄金成为对冲通胀的手段,那么英国和美国通胀预期处于数年高点将使得黄金很难以最有效的方式完成其对冲通胀的角色,尤其是投资者认为市场上还有更高潜在回报率的品种以供选择时(例如美国国债或者比特币)。

金价与黄金波动率失去同步性

从历史角度来看,黄金价格与其波动率与其他资产类别不同。尽管其他资产类别(如债券和股票)不喜波动率增加(因其暗示现金流、股息和息票支付等将面临更大不确定性)。而黄金则倾向于在波动性较高的时期受益。

黄金波动率技术分析(日线图):20202-20212

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

黄金波动率在最近几天中下滑,但或多或少比最近4个月交投在更为有利的区间中。黄金波动率GVZ (根据芝加哥期权交易所黄金波动率ETF )追踪了根据黄金期权链得到的1个月隐含波动率,目前交投在18.34附近,较2月首周录得的年度高点24.03明显下降。

黄金波动率与金价之间的5日相关系数为-0.77 ,而20日相关系数则在-0.06 。就在一周前(216日),5日相关系数为-0.75 ,而20日相关系数则是0.09。

长期财政刺激的推动在低利率环境下应利好黄金价格(类似2009-2011年),就笔者的观点而言就是这么简单。随着美国总统拜登推动其1.9万亿全部的财政刺激计划,参议院民主党具有通过大部分财政刺激计划的能力,使之成为与预算调节相对应的法律;曾在2020年帮助金价走高的财政刺激有望在2021年很快回归。

黄金价格技术分析(日线图):20202-20212

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

黄金价格从2020年低点/高点区间的50%斐波回撤水平反弹,但仍未明确突破技术水平汇集区域的强大支撑。市场因此远未受到1月和2月高点延伸而来的年内下降趋势的阻碍。金价仍交投在2015年低点/2020年高点区间的23.6%斐波回撤水平下方(1832.48一线附近),同时也与2020年低点到高点区间的38.2%斐波回撤水平相距不远(1836.97一线)。该区域可能在2月成为金价的阻力。

金价周线技术分析:2015-20212

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

在之前的展望中曾指出,「突破20208月和11月高点延续而来的下跌趋势、以及2020年高点/低点区间的38.2%斐波回撤水平,表明进一步升势正在开始。若金价突破1965.57一线将表明,周线图上的一系列"更低的高点和低点"已经结束。反之,若金价跌破1840一线则将表明从20203月和11月低点开始的上行趋势已经被打破,金价有可能进一步跌向1764.57一线(202011月低点)。」

散户持仓数据显示,83.60%的散户为净多头,多头与空头的持仓比为5.10:1 。净多头持仓较昨日减少12.11%,较上周减少2.03%;净空头持仓较昨日增加18.45%,较上周增加20.66%。

通常认为散户持仓数据为反向指标,散户是净多头的事实表明金价可能继续下跌。

然而,净多头持仓较昨日和上周均有减少。近期的情绪变化暗示,尽管散户仍为净多头,但当前金价走势可能很快反转走高。

 

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    It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.

    Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.

    Now they have an answer, according to a new study in the journal Science, and it provides yet another warning that the Arctic is entering “uncharted waters” as humans push global temperatures ever upwards.
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    Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.

    It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.

    He was baffled, it was “completely unprecedented,” he said.
    Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.

    The result was a nearly year-long collaboration between 68 scientists across 15 countries, who combed through seismic, satellite and on-the-ground data, as well as simulations of tsunami waves to solve the puzzle.

    2024年9月14日
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    The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.

    We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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    The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”

    In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

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    The non-binding framework agreement was signed by Hyundai Motor Executive Chair Euisun Chung and GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra.

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    “This partnership will enable Hyundai Motor and GM to evaluate opportunities to enhance competitiveness in key markets and vehicle segments, as well as drive cost efficiencies and provide stronger customer value,” Chung said in the statement.

    Carmakers are increasingly sealing partnerships as a way of becoming more competitive in a cut-throat industry driven by price wars.

    Last year, Nissan and Renault finalized the terms of their revamped alliance, which will focus on developing EVs. GM and Honda (HMC), along with Cruise — GM’s autonomous driving subsidiary — have agreed to create a driverless ride-hailing company in Japan.

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    The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.

    We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

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    Scientists have solved the mystery of a 650-foot mega-tsunami that made the Earth vibrate for 9 days
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    It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.

    Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.

    Now they have an answer, according to a new study in the journal Science, and it provides yet another warning that the Arctic is entering “uncharted waters” as humans push global temperatures ever upwards.
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    Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.

    It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.

    He was baffled, it was “completely unprecedented,” he said.
    Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.

    The result was a nearly year-long collaboration between 68 scientists across 15 countries, who combed through seismic, satellite and on-the-ground data, as well as simulations of tsunami waves to solve the puzzle.

    2024年9月14日
  • RobertFug

    The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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    Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.

    This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.

    Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.

    “It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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    Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.

    Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.

    Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three ­– were represented on the list.

    2024年9月14日
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
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